Stewards Cup Trends

This isn’t one of our in-depth analysis pieces, but simply a short trends analysis for tomorrow’s Stewards Cup. Here are the trends that we’ll be using:

1. 10 of the last 10 winners were aged 6 or younger
2. 10 of the last 10 winners ran in a class 2 or better last time out
3. 10 of the last 10 winners had won over 6f
4. 9 of the last 10 winners had won a race with 14 or more runners
5. 9 of the last 10 winners were rated 104 or lower
6. 8 of the last 10 winners had won a class 2 handicap or better
7. 8 of the last 10 winners had run in 13 or fewer handicaps
8. 8 of the last 10 winners had won a race worth 15k or more
9. 8 of the last 10 winners posted an RPR or 100 or more last time out
10. 7 of the last 10 winners carried 9-1 or less

Now, let’s see how this year’s runners fit the trends:

Horse	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Total
DanzeN	Y	Y	Y	Y	N	Y	Y	Y	Y	N	8
Growl	Y	Y	Y	Y	N	Y	Y	Y	Y	N	8
Perfect Pasture	N	Y	Y	Y	N	Y	N	Y	N	N	5
Duke Of Firenze	N	N	Y	Y	N	Y	N	Y	N	N	4
Intisaab	Y	Y	Y	Y	N	Y	N	Y	N	N	6
Donjuan Triumphant	Y	Y	Y	Y	N	Y	Y	Y	N	N	7
Projection	Y	Y	Y	N	N	N	Y	N	Y	N	5
Mobsta	Y	Y	Y	N	Y	N	Y	N	N	N	5
Lancelot Du Lac	N	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	N	Y	Y	N	7
Raucous	Y	Y	Y	N	Y	N	Y	N	N	N	5
Aeolus	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	N	Y	Y	Y	N	8
Eastern Impact	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	N	9
Solar Flair	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	N	N	N	N	6
Polybius	Y	Y	Y	N	Y	N	Y	Y	Y	N	7
Outback Traveller	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	N	Y	N	N	7
Edward Lewis	Y	Y	Y	N	Y	N	Y	N	N	N	5
Shanghai Glory	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	N	Y	Y	N	N	7
Hoof It	N	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	N	Y	N	Y	7
Harry Hurricane	Y	Y	N	Y	Y	Y	N	Y	N	Y	7
Upstaging	Y	Y	Y	N	Y	Y	N	N	Y	Y	7
Poyle Vinnie	N	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	N	Y	Y	Y	8
Stake Acclaim	Y	Y	Y	N	Y	N	N	N	Y	Y	6
Go Far	N	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	N	Y	N	Y	7
Al Qahwa	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	10
Brian The Snail	Y	Y	Y	N	Y	N	Y	N	N	Y	6
Sir Dancealot	Y	Y	Y	N	Y	N	Y	N	Y	Y	7
Classic Seniority	Y	N	Y	Y	Y	Y	N	Y	N	Y	7

As usual, Y means Yes (ie, the runner does fit the trend) and N means No (ie, they don't).

So, the shortlist based on trends:

1. El Qahwa – 10
2. Eastern Impact – 9
3. DanzeN, Growl, Aelous, Poyle Vinnie – 8

We have a clear winner, with only one horse fitting all of the trends. This is the David O’Meara-trained El Qahwa.

He won on his sole previous start on ground this soft, which is an immediate advantage in a race in which most of the main contenders won’t be used to ground this soft. He’s also clearly a 6f specialist, as O’Meara has recognised following some failed experiments while El Qahwa was in Mick Halford’s yard. Daniel Tudhope has a decent record on him, with a win and a place from 3 previous starts, and he has also won on his sole start in a big field (aNther advantage, as suggested in the trends).

He is drawn in 9 which at the time of writing appears to be the ideal draw (the consolation race earlier on the card will shed more light on the situation in that regard). However, a high draw is certainly Nt preferable, and this disadvantage has been accentuated on soft ground in previous renewals.

With many of the field preferring soft ground, I think he’s worth a punt at a big price. However, he has been Pricewised tonight and the best price available is 16/1. However, Segal put him up at 18/1 so some firms will be offering that price in the morning. My personal preference would be Skybet, with 7 places on offer at a fair 14/1.

SELECTION: AL QAHWA (14/1, SKYBET [E/W TERMS: 7 PLACES, 1/5 ODDS])

As ever, the very best of luck and remember only to bet what you can afford to lose.