Lincoln Handicap Trends and Profiles

The Lincoln signals the return of the flat season, and although it may be hard to focus on anything other than the prospects of Aintree, Punchestown, Ayr, Sandown or Fairyhouse and the great last hurrahs of the jumps season, the Lincoln, traditionally one of the spring’s biggest betting races, is always of interest.

I’m going to look at the race firstly from a trends perspective in an attempt to narrow down the large field of 22. The idea will be to look at some of the stronger trends from the last 10 years, apply them to this year’s runners and focus on those which fit the vast majority of trends and the profile which we’ve outlined of a typical Lincoln winner.

After this, we’ll have a small shortlist to work with and it’s at this stage that we take a closer look at the runners in order to determine whether they’re suited to the race. We’ll do this by creating some notes for each horse – basically, we attempt to identify the conditions under which the horses may excel, and find out which horses should be suited to Saturday’s race.

It’s worth noting that the winner may well be eliminated in the first stage – but as this is a trends analysis, we have to work firstly from a trends perspective.

So, to begin, these are the trends we’re working with:

1. 10 of the last 10 winners have been aged 4 to 6
2. 9 of the last 10 winners carried between 8-9 and 9-4
3. 8 of the last 10 winners had 15 or more career starts
4. 9 of the last 10 winners had 3-6 career wins
5. 9 of the last 10 winners had 3 or less handicap wins
6. 8 of the last 10 winners had won over 1 mile or further
7. 8 of the last 10 winners had won a race worth 11k or more
8. 9 of the last 10 winners were having their first start of the year or had run in Dubai
9. 9 of the last 10 winners gained their highest grade win in a class 2 or 3 race
10. 5 of the last 10 winners were trained by Richard Fahey, William Haggas, John Quinn or David O’Meara

As ever, a more extensive report on trends can be seen on the forums at racecaller.com. Here, I’ve handpicked some to take a look at. Now, a quick look at which of this year’s runners do and don’t fit which trends: (Y is Yes, ie, the horse fits the trend, while N is No).

Horse	1	2	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	Total
Battle Of Marathon	Y	No	Y	No	Y	No	No	Y	No	No	4
Gabrial	N	N	Y	N	N	Y	Y	Y	N	Y	5
You're Fired	Y	N	Y	Y	N	Y	Y	N	Y	N	6
Third Time Lucky	Y	N	Y	Y	N	Y	Y	N	Y	Y	7
Yuften	Y	N	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	N	Y	N	7
Oh This Is Us	Y	N	Y	Y	N	Y	Y	Y	Y	N	7
Top Notch Tonto	N	N	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	N	N	N	5
Zhui Feng	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	N	Y	N	8
Dream Walker	N	Y	Y	N	N	Y	Y	N	Y	N	5
Donncha	Y	Y	Y	Y	N	Y	N	Y	Y	N	7
Steel Train	Y	Y	Y	Y	N	N	Y	N	N	Y	6
Eddystone Rock	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	N	N	Y	N	7
Emell	N	Y	Y	N	Y	N	Y	N	Y	N	5
Heaven's Guest	N	Y	Y	N	N	N	Y	Y	N	Y	5
Lucy The Painter	Y	Y	Y	Y	N	Y	N	Y	Y	N	7
Bravery	Y	Y	Y	N	Y	Y	N	Y	Y	Y	8
George Cinq	N	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	N	N	Y	N	6
Instant Attraction	Y	Y	Y	Y	N	Y	N	Y	Y	N	7
Highland Colori	N	Y	Y	N	N	Y	Y	Y	Y	N	6
Master Carpenter	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	N	N	8
Dolphin Vista	Y	Y	N	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	9
Withernsea	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	N	Y	Y	Y	Y	9

Firstly, we’re going to get rid of anything which has scored 6 or less. We could well be excluding the winner here, but this is a trends analysis so we obviously want to exclude the horses which just don’t fit the profile at all.

This excludes 10 horses and leaves us with 12. 5 of these scored 8 or 9, and will definitely make it to the next stage. These are the horses in which we’re most interested. We’ll continue to look more closely at those which scored 7 if there is nothing standing out which scores 8 or 9. However, as I said already, this is a trends analysis and our main interests will be the horses which fitted the most trends.

Zhui Feng – 8

• 14 starts – 3 wins – 1 place
• Never ran at Doncaster before
• 2 wins from 3 over 6f, a win and a place from 11 starts over 7f over further – but he has won once from 4 starts over 1m 2f
• 3 wins from 6 starts in fields of 11 or less, just 1 place from 8 starts in bigger fields
• Seems to peak in the autumn – 3 wins and a place from 8 starts between August and October, unplaced in all 6 starts between February and July

So, the trip shouldn’t be a particular issue, so the two points worth noting are that he doesn’t seem to like big fields or run particularly well in the spring – on that basis, I’m going to discount him.

Bravery – 8

• 12 starts – 1 win – 1 place
• Never ran at Doncaster before
• Unsuccessful over further than a mile (unplaced in all 7 starts) but 1 win from 4 starts over a mile and a place on sole start over 7f
• Sole win did come in April

Overall, it’s hard to spot any patterns in the form due to the relative lack of success

Master Carpenter – 8

• 31 starts – 4 wins – 6 places
• 1 place from 2 starts at Doncaster
• Has managed to make the frame much more often on quicker ground – 2 wins and 6 places from 20 starts on good or better, 2 wins from 11 starts on good to soft or worse
• Wins range from 5f to 1m 2½f. 1 win and 2 places from 10 starts over a mile
• 2 wins and 3 places from 5 starts with Andrea Atzeni on board
• Seems to peak early on in the season (3 wins and 2 places from 13 starts in April and May compared to 1 win and 4 places from 18 starts from June onwards).

Reasonable course form, but he might like the ground marginally quicker than it is. He should be running to the best of his ability at this early stage in the season (and could even be overpriced due to his bad form at the end of last season) but Andrea Atzeni riding would be preferable.

Dolphin Vista – 9

• 14 starts – 4 wins – 4 places
• 1 place from 1 start at Doncaster
• Unplaced on 2 starts on ground faster than good, but seems fairly versatile other than that – he has won on heavy and soft ground, but good is probably ideal, with 2 wins and a place from 4 starts
• 1 mile specialist – 3 wins and 3 places from 8 starts over the mile, compared to 1 place from 3 starts over a shorter trip and 1 win from 3 starts over further
• Almost all of his success has come with Tony Hamilton on board – 3 wins and 3 places from 6 starts
• Runs well early in the season (2 wins and a place from 4 starts between March and May compared to 2 wins and 3 places from 10 starts later on in the season)

Decent course form, the ground won’t be a problem, the trip is perfect, and he should peak early in the season. It would be preferable to have Tony Hamilton on board but that’s the only real negative.

Withernsea – 9

• 29 starts – 3 wins – 8 places
• 2 wins from 5 starts at Doncaster
• Seems to like soft ground – 2 wins and 2 places from 8 starts on soft or worse, 3 places from 11 starts on good or better (1 win and 3 places from 10 starts on good to soft/yielding/yielding to soft)
• Unplaced on both starts over 1m – 2 wins and 5 places from 15 starts on 7f
• Runs well after a short break – 3 wins and 7 places from 18 starts when back out within 30 days, just 1 place from 10 starts after a longer break

Good track record and I reckon the ground shouldn’t be a major issue but his record over the mile is a worry and he’s seen to better effect when he has had a run to shake off the cobwebs – I’m not particularly interested for those reasons.

The Final Shortlist

It’s hard to discount Bravery, particularly considering David O’Meara’s record, but I reckon that Bravery’s price has probably been affected a lot by this fact and for this reason I’m not interested.

The two others are of interest based on both the trends and their individual profiles – these are Master Carpenter and Dolphin Vista.

Master Carpenter’s price has collapsed slightly this evening, having been selected by Tom Segal in his Pricewise column in Saturday’s Racing Post. However, he may have been a big price anyway – we outlined that his form was better early on in the season in his individual notes, and upon further inspection you’ll find that his season finished on a low point in 2014 and 2015 – therefore, although he had a poor season overall in 2016, it shouldn’t be any cause for concern that it ended so badly, as he has been known to get off to a good start.

Dolphin Vista, meanwhile, has been well beaten in good races thus far in his career, but picked up some smaller prizes. However, he could potentially be a classic Fahey plot for this race and has plenty of potential for improvement – he has only run 14 times and was gelded over the winter. He definitely looks like an interesting type and could well outrun his odds.

For me, neither are massive betting opportunities but both are of interest. I’ll stake just a point on each. There are plenty of other potential winners in the field (including the favourite, who could be the proverbial group horse in a handicap) but these two both represent a bit of value in the field and are worth a punt.

SELECTIONS:

MASTER CARPENTER E/W @ 25/1

DOLPHIN VISTA E/W @ 14/1

Shop around to find the best prices – some firms are offering 5 and 6 places (but generally at only 1/5 of the odds). As ever, the very best of luck and remember only to bet what you can comfortably afford to lose.