Lincoln Handicap Trends and Profiles

The Lincoln signals the return of the flat season, and although it may be hard to focus on anything other than the prospects of Aintree, Punchestown, Ayr, Sandown or Fairyhouse and the great last hurrahs of the jumps season, the Lincoln, traditionally one of the spring’s biggest betting races, is always of interest.

I’m going to look at the race firstly from a trends perspective in an attempt to narrow down the large field of 22. The idea will be to look at some of the stronger trends from the last 10 years, apply them to this year’s runners and focus on those which fit the vast majority of trends and the profile which we’ve outlined of a typical Lincoln winner.

After this, we’ll have a small shortlist to work with and it’s at this stage that we take a closer look at the runners in order to determine whether they’re suited to the race. We’ll do this by creating some notes for each horse – basically, we attempt to identify the conditions under which the horses may excel, and find out which horses should be suited to Saturday’s race.

It’s worth noting that the winner may well be eliminated in the first stage – but as this is a trends analysis, we have to work firstly from a trends perspective.

So, to begin, these are the trends we’re working with:

1. 10 of the last 10 winners have been aged 4 to 6
2. 9 of the last 10 winners carried between 8-9 and 9-4
3. 8 of the last 10 winners had 15 or more career starts
4. 9 of the last 10 winners had 3-6 career wins
5. 9 of the last 10 winners had 3 or less handicap wins
6. 8 of the last 10 winners had won over 1 mile or further
7. 8 of the last 10 winners had won a race worth 11k or more
8. 9 of the last 10 winners were having their first start of the year or had run in Dubai
9. 9 of the last 10 winners gained their highest grade win in a class 2 or 3 race
10. 5 of the last 10 winners were trained by Richard Fahey, William Haggas, John Quinn or David O’Meara

As ever, a more extensive report on trends can be seen on the forums at racecaller.com. Here, I’ve handpicked some to take a look at. Now, a quick look at which of this year’s runners do and don’t fit which trends: (Y is Yes, ie, the horse fits the trend, while N is No).

Horse	1	2	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	Total
Battle Of Marathon	Y	No	Y	No	Y	No	No	Y	No	No	4
Gabrial	N	N	Y	N	N	Y	Y	Y	N	Y	5
You're Fired	Y	N	Y	Y	N	Y	Y	N	Y	N	6
Third Time Lucky	Y	N	Y	Y	N	Y	Y	N	Y	Y	7
Yuften	Y	N	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	N	Y	N	7
Oh This Is Us	Y	N	Y	Y	N	Y	Y	Y	Y	N	7
Top Notch Tonto	N	N	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	N	N	N	5
Zhui Feng	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	N	Y	N	8
Dream Walker	N	Y	Y	N	N	Y	Y	N	Y	N	5
Donncha	Y	Y	Y	Y	N	Y	N	Y	Y	N	7
Steel Train	Y	Y	Y	Y	N	N	Y	N	N	Y	6
Eddystone Rock	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	N	N	Y	N	7
Emell	N	Y	Y	N	Y	N	Y	N	Y	N	5
Heaven's Guest	N	Y	Y	N	N	N	Y	Y	N	Y	5
Lucy The Painter	Y	Y	Y	Y	N	Y	N	Y	Y	N	7
Bravery	Y	Y	Y	N	Y	Y	N	Y	Y	Y	8
George Cinq	N	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	N	N	Y	N	6
Instant Attraction	Y	Y	Y	Y	N	Y	N	Y	Y	N	7
Highland Colori	N	Y	Y	N	N	Y	Y	Y	Y	N	6
Master Carpenter	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	N	N	8
Dolphin Vista	Y	Y	N	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	9
Withernsea	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	N	Y	Y	Y	Y	9

Firstly, we’re going to get rid of anything which has scored 6 or less. We could well be excluding the winner here, but this is a trends analysis so we obviously want to exclude the horses which just don’t fit the profile at all.

This excludes 10 horses and leaves us with 12. 5 of these scored 8 or 9, and will definitely make it to the next stage. These are the horses in which we’re most interested. We’ll continue to look more closely at those which scored 7 if there is nothing standing out which scores 8 or 9. However, as I said already, this is a trends analysis and our main interests will be the horses which fitted the most trends.

Zhui Feng – 8

• 14 starts – 3 wins – 1 place
• Never ran at Doncaster before
• 2 wins from 3 over 6f, a win and a place from 11 starts over 7f over further – but he has won once from 4 starts over 1m 2f
• 3 wins from 6 starts in fields of 11 or less, just 1 place from 8 starts in bigger fields
• Seems to peak in the autumn – 3 wins and a place from 8 starts between August and October, unplaced in all 6 starts between February and July

So, the trip shouldn’t be a particular issue, so the two points worth noting are that he doesn’t seem to like big fields or run particularly well in the spring – on that basis, I’m going to discount him.

Bravery – 8

• 12 starts – 1 win – 1 place
• Never ran at Doncaster before
• Unsuccessful over further than a mile (unplaced in all 7 starts) but 1 win from 4 starts over a mile and a place on sole start over 7f
• Sole win did come in April

Overall, it’s hard to spot any patterns in the form due to the relative lack of success

Master Carpenter – 8

• 31 starts – 4 wins – 6 places
• 1 place from 2 starts at Doncaster
• Has managed to make the frame much more often on quicker ground – 2 wins and 6 places from 20 starts on good or better, 2 wins from 11 starts on good to soft or worse
• Wins range from 5f to 1m 2½f. 1 win and 2 places from 10 starts over a mile
• 2 wins and 3 places from 5 starts with Andrea Atzeni on board
• Seems to peak early on in the season (3 wins and 2 places from 13 starts in April and May compared to 1 win and 4 places from 18 starts from June onwards).

Reasonable course form, but he might like the ground marginally quicker than it is. He should be running to the best of his ability at this early stage in the season (and could even be overpriced due to his bad form at the end of last season) but Andrea Atzeni riding would be preferable.

Dolphin Vista – 9

• 14 starts – 4 wins – 4 places
• 1 place from 1 start at Doncaster
• Unplaced on 2 starts on ground faster than good, but seems fairly versatile other than that – he has won on heavy and soft ground, but good is probably ideal, with 2 wins and a place from 4 starts
• 1 mile specialist – 3 wins and 3 places from 8 starts over the mile, compared to 1 place from 3 starts over a shorter trip and 1 win from 3 starts over further
• Almost all of his success has come with Tony Hamilton on board – 3 wins and 3 places from 6 starts
• Runs well early in the season (2 wins and a place from 4 starts between March and May compared to 2 wins and 3 places from 10 starts later on in the season)

Decent course form, the ground won’t be a problem, the trip is perfect, and he should peak early in the season. It would be preferable to have Tony Hamilton on board but that’s the only real negative.

Withernsea – 9

• 29 starts – 3 wins – 8 places
• 2 wins from 5 starts at Doncaster
• Seems to like soft ground – 2 wins and 2 places from 8 starts on soft or worse, 3 places from 11 starts on good or better (1 win and 3 places from 10 starts on good to soft/yielding/yielding to soft)
• Unplaced on both starts over 1m – 2 wins and 5 places from 15 starts on 7f
• Runs well after a short break – 3 wins and 7 places from 18 starts when back out within 30 days, just 1 place from 10 starts after a longer break

Good track record and I reckon the ground shouldn’t be a major issue but his record over the mile is a worry and he’s seen to better effect when he has had a run to shake off the cobwebs – I’m not particularly interested for those reasons.

The Final Shortlist

It’s hard to discount Bravery, particularly considering David O’Meara’s record, but I reckon that Bravery’s price has probably been affected a lot by this fact and for this reason I’m not interested.

The two others are of interest based on both the trends and their individual profiles – these are Master Carpenter and Dolphin Vista.

Master Carpenter’s price has collapsed slightly this evening, having been selected by Tom Segal in his Pricewise column in Saturday’s Racing Post. However, he may have been a big price anyway – we outlined that his form was better early on in the season in his individual notes, and upon further inspection you’ll find that his season finished on a low point in 2014 and 2015 – therefore, although he had a poor season overall in 2016, it shouldn’t be any cause for concern that it ended so badly, as he has been known to get off to a good start.

Dolphin Vista, meanwhile, has been well beaten in good races thus far in his career, but picked up some smaller prizes. However, he could potentially be a classic Fahey plot for this race and has plenty of potential for improvement – he has only run 14 times and was gelded over the winter. He definitely looks like an interesting type and could well outrun his odds.

For me, neither are massive betting opportunities but both are of interest. I’ll stake just a point on each. There are plenty of other potential winners in the field (including the favourite, who could be the proverbial group horse in a handicap) but these two both represent a bit of value in the field and are worth a punt.

SELECTIONS:

MASTER CARPENTER E/W @ 25/1

DOLPHIN VISTA E/W @ 14/1

Shop around to find the best prices – some firms are offering 5 and 6 places (but generally at only 1/5 of the odds). As ever, the very best of luck and remember only to bet what you can comfortably afford to lose. 

Cheltenham Reflection: Is Mullins Still The Man?

Willie Mullins has had a year of misfortune and mishaps. His army may not have been depleted in numbers when Gigginstown removed their horses from his yard following a dispute over fees, but he most certainly did lose some class. Not only was this a loss to him, but it benefited his main rival on these shores – the up-and-coming Gordon Elliott.

Mullins was of course still left with some true superstars in the yard, mainly courtesy of Rich Ricci and Graham Wylie, but one by one they too seemed to disappear, with the injuries and incidents coming at a ferocious pace. Vautour died in a freak accident, Annie Power picked up an injury, Faugheen wouldn’t make the festival, Min was out for the season. It was never going to be easy.

Indeed, it was a slow start for Mullins. No winners on the first two days caused many to question his previously undisputed position at the top of the heap, the very best of trainers. With Gordon Elliott firing in the winners, people began to ask whether Mullins had lost his touch.

The answer is undoubtedly a resounding no. When taking a closer look at Mullins’ runners over the first two days, we see that almost all of them ran up to form. Melon realistically didn’t deserve to be favourite in the Supreme on form alone but put in a fantastic effort for a horse which had only run once before. Limini and Vroum Vroum Mag ran fine races just to be beaten close to home by ex-stablemate and top-class mare Apples Jade.

There were plenty of others in with chances which came up short, but realistically nothing screamed out that Mullins’ was a yard out of form, aside from the fact that the winners tally wasn’t quite living up to his legendary reputation and outstanding record at Cheltenham. Douvan was the one exception, putting in a bitterly disappointing run which has subsequently been explained by an MRI scan showing a stress fracture.

Mullins kept his cool and battled on, and, on Thursday, the class rose to the top. Yorkhill put in a fine run to win the JLT. Un De Sceaux, a similarly quirky animal, ran keenly and was let go to the front, dictating the Ryanair and winning impressively. Nicholls Canyon added another grade 1 to his underrated collection and Lets Dance showed herself to be an extremely talented mare when winning the Mares Novice Hurdle.

When Gold Cup day came around, Mullins just couldn’t stop. A solid 3^rd from Bapaume in the Triumph was just the warm-up – Arctic Fire did a magnificent job to win the County Hurdle off top weight, Penhill was a surprise winner of the Albert Bartlett and Djakdadam was probably only beaten by the fact that he didn’t quite stay the Gold Cup trip, travelling beautifully throughout.

Oh, and while we weren’t looking, Mullins also picked up a Veteran’s Chase in Wexford. He may not win the Irish Trainer’s Championship this year, but when it comes to next year’s festival we should all remember that yes, Willie Mullins is still very much the man to follow.  

Stat Check: Can Cue Card Win The Gold Cup?

Needless to say, it has been a while. Over the last 12 months, some of the content you were previously used to seeing on The Parade Ring was seen on our other special Gold Cup and Royal Ascot websites, while I spent the second half of 2016 writing for an online tipping service.

Other commitments have been in the way recently, commitments which still exist, and for that reason the end of the National Hunt season will not include the vast quantities of content which have been customary at this period in other National Hunt seasons (we will be back in action over the summer). However, this is still The Parade Ring, and it wouldn’t be Cheltenham without some content for our ever-loyal readers and followers. 

This year's Gold Cup has been truly decimated by withdrawals, injuries and tragedies. The last two winners, Don Cossack and Coneygree have been retired and won’t be seen on a racetrack again. The racing world is also poorer for the deaths of Vautour and Many Clouds. These losses themselves left us with a Gold Cup bereft of many of the game’s stars, and Thistlecrack looked to have very strong claims in a weakened field, with only some stamina doubts remaining. But yet again fortune wasn’t on our side as news emerged this week that he would miss the rest of the season.

This leaves us with a horrifically weakened but intriguingly open Gold Cup field. Thistlecrack’s stablemate, Native River heads the betting at 3/1, a strong but certainly not unbeatable favourite. There are plenty of other contenders and I'd like to take a look at them one by one - beginning today with Cue Card.

Can Cue Card Win The Gold Cup?

Older readers will recall the extent of my fondness for this horse and I would love nothing more than to see him win a Gold Cup.  He seems to be in top form and his class should never be in question.

However, Cue Card is 11 now. The last horse aged 10 years or older to win a Gold Cup was Cool Dawn in 1998, and there have been 72 subsequent failed attempts. Worse still, the last horse aged 11 years or older to win the Gold Cup was What A Myth in 1969 at the age of 12. Indeed, the last horse older than 10 to win any festival grade 1 was Moscow Flyer back in 2005, and 54 have tried and failed since that.

Furthermore, only one horse has won a festival Grade 1 in the last 15 years with over 32 career starts under their belt, from 111 runners. Cue Card now has 35 career starts to his name. I’ll try not to labour the point as I think that these stats speak for themselves. I would love to see Cue Card be the exception but history suggests that the odds are stacked against him.

Gowran - PWC Champion Chase Individual Horse Profiles & Notes

It's been too long! The National Hunt racing is back and so is The Parade Ring and while many eyes may be on the group 1 flat action at Newmarket today (and, of course, Longchamp tomorrow), Gowran is the venue for the grade 2 Gowran Champion Chase, featuring Clarcam and Shanahans Turn among others. We’ve produced our individual horse profiles and notes for the big race to help you pick your winner.

Alechi Inois

• Overall record: 14 starts – 8 wins – 0 places
• Never ran at Gowran before
• Definite preference for better ground – 7-6-0 on good or better compared to 7-2-0 on good to yielding or worse.
• Can stay the trip (2-4-0 over 2m 4f, 4-1-0 over further) but arguably better over 2m 2f or less (6-5-0).
• Jockeys: DJ Casey 1-0-0, Paul Townend 5-4-0, Ruby Walsh 8-4-0
• He has come up short in this company before, unplaced on all 5 grade 1 and 2 starts with form of 7PP6P
• Very strong record in small fields – 7-6-0 in fields of 7 or less, 7-2-0 in fields of 8 or more
• Does well first time out after a break – 3 wins from 3 starts after a break of over 120 days, 5-1-0 when back out within 30 days (5-3-0 after a break of between 30 and 60 days).
• Runs well in the summer months – 6-5-0 from May-July, 2-1-0 in September and 1-1-0 in October but just 4-1-0 in November and unplaced on sole December start.

Clarcam

• Overall record: 16 starts – 5 wins – 7 places
• Never ran at Gowran before
• Hard to detect much of a preference based on ground – 6-2-3 with form of 221F21 on good ground is strong, but so is 4-1-3 on soft ground (form of 2221).
• Jockeys: Bryan Cooper 6-2-1, Noel Fehily 1-0-0, A E Lynch 1-0-1, Jason Maguire 1-0-1, Davy Russell 5-1-4, K C Sexton 1-1-0, Ruby Walsh 1-1-0
• 5-2-1 in grade 1 races so this grade 2 (in which he has a record of 1-0-1) shouldn’t be an issue in terms of class
• Seems to like small fields – 6-4-1 in fields of 7 or less. Win record isn’t as strong in bigger fields but place record still decent – 10-1-6.
• 2 wins from 2 starts when back out within 2 weeks of his last start.
• Never finished outside the places in the first half of the season – 9-4-5 from September to December with form of 221321211 (3-2-1 with form of 211 in October alone).

Shanahans Turn

• Overall record: 12 runs – 4 wins – 2 places
• 1-0-1 at Gowran – 2^nd on a bumper on his debut in October 2013.
• Possible preference for softer ground – 6-2-0 on yielding or better, 5-2-2 on yielding to soft or worse.
• 2-2-0 over this trip of 2m 4f
• Jockeys: J J Burke 6-3-0, Barry Geraghty 1-0-0, A E Lynch 4-1-1, D Roche 1-0-1
• Won on his sole start in a grade 2 race in the past. Possibly out of his depth in grade 1 races (6-1-0).
• Good record in small fields (4-3-0 in fields of 7 or less)  but this may not be a necessity – 3-1-1 in fields of 16 or more is a decent record.
• Runs better after a short break from the track – 3-2-1 when back out within 30 days, 8-2-0 after a break of more than 30 days
• 6-3-2 with form of 231115 from October to December compares very favourably with just 6-1-0 with form of 85PF01 before that.
• Preference for right-handed tracks – 7-3-2 compared to 5-1-0 going left-handed.

Devils Bride

• Overall Record: 12 starts – 7 wins – 1 place
• Never ran at Gowran before.
• `No clear preference in terms of ground.
• Jockeys: Bryan Cooper 4-2-1, Richard Johnson 1-1-0, P W Mullins 3-2-0, Paul Townend 4-2-0
• 2-2-0 in grade 2 and 3 races in the past with form of P8.
• Never outside the places with form of 3-2-1 after a break of over 60 days. 8-5-0 after a shorter break. Also won on his racecourse debut so seems to do well fresh.
• September/October is a strong period with 3 wins from 3 starts in these months. June/July also a successful period – 6-4-1 with form of 11112P.
• Possible preference for right-handed tracks – 8-5-1 with form of 141112P1 going right-handed compared to 4-2-0 and 1P81 going left-handed.
• Worth noting 2 wins from 2 starts with a tongue-tie – 10-5-1 without.

Indevan

• Overall record: 21 starts – 7 wins – 3 places
• 2-1-1 at Gowran – first two starts were bumpers here, 2^nd in March 2013 and won in April 2013.
• Seems to prefer better ground – 16-7-1 on yielding or better, 5-0-2 on soft or worse.
• Jockeys: D J Casey 1-0-0, Danny Mullins 2-0-0, P W Mullins 2-1-1, Paul Townend 5-2-0, Ruby Walsh 11-4-2
• Very strong record in small fields – 8-4-2 in fields of 7 or less, 13-3-1 in bigger fields.
• Unplaced from 7 starts when back out within 30 days of his last start. 13-7-2 after a longer break.
• Strong record of 2 wins from 2 starts in October.

Texas Jack

• Overall record: 26 starts – 6 wins – 5 places
• 1-0-1 at Gowran – 2^nd in the grade 2 Red Mills Chase over 2m 4f last February
• Good record on fairly soft ground – 15-3-5 on soft or soft to heavy. 3-1-0 on heavy ground and 8-2-0 on ground better than soft to heavy.
• Jockeys: Paul Carberry 19-5-5, D J Condon 2-0-0, G N Fox 2-0-0, Barry Geraghty 1-0-0, J P McKeown 1-1-0, Ruby Walsh 1-0-0
• Strong record of 3-2-0 in fields of 16 runners or more.
• Seems to run well when back out quickly – 4-1-2 with form of 1232 when back out within 2 weeks of his last start.
• Decent record in September/October – 3-1-2 with form of 122. This drops to 8-2-1 in November/December.

Cailin Annamh

• Overall record: 21 starts – 9 wins – 5 places
• 2-1-0 in Gowran – 5^th in a 2m bumper on his racecourse debut in October 2012, won a 2m 4f hurdle here in October 2013.
• Strong record on all going types, from 5-3-1 on good to firm to 2-2-0 on soft.
• Jockeys: M Fahey 2-1-0, Barry Geraghty 11-5-1, AP McCoy 1-0-1, R M Power 6-2-3, Davy Russell 1-1-0
• Unplaced on sole grade 2 start in the past.
• Seems to prefer smaller fields – 11-7-2 in fields of 11 or less, 10-2-3 in fields of 12 or more.
• Record deteriorates as break prior to run gets longer – 3-2-1 when back out within 2 weeks, 11-6-2 when back out within 16-30 days of her last start, 6-1-2 after a longer break – so, the shorter the break, the better.
• August, September, October a very strong period – a combined record of 8-6-0 with form of 51111141.
• Preference for right-handed tracks – 15-9-4 compared to 6-0-1 going left-handed.
• Likes undulating tracks – extremely strong record of 12-7-4 on such tracks.

As always, the very best of luck from all of us here at The Parade Ring, enjoy the racing and remember only to bet what you can afford to lose.