Cheltenham Reflection: Is Mullins Still The Man?

Willie Mullins has had a year of misfortune and mishaps. His army may not have been depleted in numbers when Gigginstown removed their horses from his yard following a dispute over fees, but he most certainly did lose some class. Not only was this a loss to him, but it benefited his main rival on these shores – the up-and-coming Gordon Elliott.

Mullins was of course still left with some true superstars in the yard, mainly courtesy of Rich Ricci and Graham Wylie, but one by one they too seemed to disappear, with the injuries and incidents coming at a ferocious pace. Vautour died in a freak accident, Annie Power picked up an injury, Faugheen wouldn’t make the festival, Min was out for the season. It was never going to be easy.

Indeed, it was a slow start for Mullins. No winners on the first two days caused many to question his previously undisputed position at the top of the heap, the very best of trainers. With Gordon Elliott firing in the winners, people began to ask whether Mullins had lost his touch.

The answer is undoubtedly a resounding no. When taking a closer look at Mullins’ runners over the first two days, we see that almost all of them ran up to form. Melon realistically didn’t deserve to be favourite in the Supreme on form alone but put in a fantastic effort for a horse which had only run once before. Limini and Vroum Vroum Mag ran fine races just to be beaten close to home by ex-stablemate and top-class mare Apples Jade.

There were plenty of others in with chances which came up short, but realistically nothing screamed out that Mullins’ was a yard out of form, aside from the fact that the winners tally wasn’t quite living up to his legendary reputation and outstanding record at Cheltenham. Douvan was the one exception, putting in a bitterly disappointing run which has subsequently been explained by an MRI scan showing a stress fracture.

Mullins kept his cool and battled on, and, on Thursday, the class rose to the top. Yorkhill put in a fine run to win the JLT. Un De Sceaux, a similarly quirky animal, ran keenly and was let go to the front, dictating the Ryanair and winning impressively. Nicholls Canyon added another grade 1 to his underrated collection and Lets Dance showed herself to be an extremely talented mare when winning the Mares Novice Hurdle.

When Gold Cup day came around, Mullins just couldn’t stop. A solid 3^rd from Bapaume in the Triumph was just the warm-up – Arctic Fire did a magnificent job to win the County Hurdle off top weight, Penhill was a surprise winner of the Albert Bartlett and Djakdadam was probably only beaten by the fact that he didn’t quite stay the Gold Cup trip, travelling beautifully throughout.

Oh, and while we weren’t looking, Mullins also picked up a Veteran’s Chase in Wexford. He may not win the Irish Trainer’s Championship this year, but when it comes to next year’s festival we should all remember that yes, Willie Mullins is still very much the man to follow.  

Stat Check: Can Cue Card Win The Gold Cup?

Needless to say, it has been a while. Over the last 12 months, some of the content you were previously used to seeing on The Parade Ring was seen on our other special Gold Cup and Royal Ascot websites, while I spent the second half of 2016 writing for an online tipping service.

Other commitments have been in the way recently, commitments which still exist, and for that reason the end of the National Hunt season will not include the vast quantities of content which have been customary at this period in other National Hunt seasons (we will be back in action over the summer). However, this is still The Parade Ring, and it wouldn’t be Cheltenham without some content for our ever-loyal readers and followers. 

This year's Gold Cup has been truly decimated by withdrawals, injuries and tragedies. The last two winners, Don Cossack and Coneygree have been retired and won’t be seen on a racetrack again. The racing world is also poorer for the deaths of Vautour and Many Clouds. These losses themselves left us with a Gold Cup bereft of many of the game’s stars, and Thistlecrack looked to have very strong claims in a weakened field, with only some stamina doubts remaining. But yet again fortune wasn’t on our side as news emerged this week that he would miss the rest of the season.

This leaves us with a horrifically weakened but intriguingly open Gold Cup field. Thistlecrack’s stablemate, Native River heads the betting at 3/1, a strong but certainly not unbeatable favourite. There are plenty of other contenders and I'd like to take a look at them one by one - beginning today with Cue Card.

Can Cue Card Win The Gold Cup?

Older readers will recall the extent of my fondness for this horse and I would love nothing more than to see him win a Gold Cup.  He seems to be in top form and his class should never be in question.

However, Cue Card is 11 now. The last horse aged 10 years or older to win a Gold Cup was Cool Dawn in 1998, and there have been 72 subsequent failed attempts. Worse still, the last horse aged 11 years or older to win the Gold Cup was What A Myth in 1969 at the age of 12. Indeed, the last horse older than 10 to win any festival grade 1 was Moscow Flyer back in 2005, and 54 have tried and failed since that.

Furthermore, only one horse has won a festival Grade 1 in the last 15 years with over 32 career starts under their belt, from 111 runners. Cue Card now has 35 career starts to his name. I’ll try not to labour the point as I think that these stats speak for themselves. I would love to see Cue Card be the exception but history suggests that the odds are stacked against him.

Gowran - PWC Champion Chase Individual Horse Profiles & Notes

It's been too long! The National Hunt racing is back and so is The Parade Ring and while many eyes may be on the group 1 flat action at Newmarket today (and, of course, Longchamp tomorrow), Gowran is the venue for the grade 2 Gowran Champion Chase, featuring Clarcam and Shanahans Turn among others. We’ve produced our individual horse profiles and notes for the big race to help you pick your winner.

Alechi Inois

• Overall record: 14 starts – 8 wins – 0 places
• Never ran at Gowran before
• Definite preference for better ground – 7-6-0 on good or better compared to 7-2-0 on good to yielding or worse.
• Can stay the trip (2-4-0 over 2m 4f, 4-1-0 over further) but arguably better over 2m 2f or less (6-5-0).
• Jockeys: DJ Casey 1-0-0, Paul Townend 5-4-0, Ruby Walsh 8-4-0
• He has come up short in this company before, unplaced on all 5 grade 1 and 2 starts with form of 7PP6P
• Very strong record in small fields – 7-6-0 in fields of 7 or less, 7-2-0 in fields of 8 or more
• Does well first time out after a break – 3 wins from 3 starts after a break of over 120 days, 5-1-0 when back out within 30 days (5-3-0 after a break of between 30 and 60 days).
• Runs well in the summer months – 6-5-0 from May-July, 2-1-0 in September and 1-1-0 in October but just 4-1-0 in November and unplaced on sole December start.

Clarcam

• Overall record: 16 starts – 5 wins – 7 places
• Never ran at Gowran before
• Hard to detect much of a preference based on ground – 6-2-3 with form of 221F21 on good ground is strong, but so is 4-1-3 on soft ground (form of 2221).
• Jockeys: Bryan Cooper 6-2-1, Noel Fehily 1-0-0, A E Lynch 1-0-1, Jason Maguire 1-0-1, Davy Russell 5-1-4, K C Sexton 1-1-0, Ruby Walsh 1-1-0
• 5-2-1 in grade 1 races so this grade 2 (in which he has a record of 1-0-1) shouldn’t be an issue in terms of class
• Seems to like small fields – 6-4-1 in fields of 7 or less. Win record isn’t as strong in bigger fields but place record still decent – 10-1-6.
• 2 wins from 2 starts when back out within 2 weeks of his last start.
• Never finished outside the places in the first half of the season – 9-4-5 from September to December with form of 221321211 (3-2-1 with form of 211 in October alone).

Shanahans Turn

• Overall record: 12 runs – 4 wins – 2 places
• 1-0-1 at Gowran – 2^nd on a bumper on his debut in October 2013.
• Possible preference for softer ground – 6-2-0 on yielding or better, 5-2-2 on yielding to soft or worse.
• 2-2-0 over this trip of 2m 4f
• Jockeys: J J Burke 6-3-0, Barry Geraghty 1-0-0, A E Lynch 4-1-1, D Roche 1-0-1
• Won on his sole start in a grade 2 race in the past. Possibly out of his depth in grade 1 races (6-1-0).
• Good record in small fields (4-3-0 in fields of 7 or less)  but this may not be a necessity – 3-1-1 in fields of 16 or more is a decent record.
• Runs better after a short break from the track – 3-2-1 when back out within 30 days, 8-2-0 after a break of more than 30 days
• 6-3-2 with form of 231115 from October to December compares very favourably with just 6-1-0 with form of 85PF01 before that.
• Preference for right-handed tracks – 7-3-2 compared to 5-1-0 going left-handed.

Devils Bride

• Overall Record: 12 starts – 7 wins – 1 place
• Never ran at Gowran before.
• `No clear preference in terms of ground.
• Jockeys: Bryan Cooper 4-2-1, Richard Johnson 1-1-0, P W Mullins 3-2-0, Paul Townend 4-2-0
• 2-2-0 in grade 2 and 3 races in the past with form of P8.
• Never outside the places with form of 3-2-1 after a break of over 60 days. 8-5-0 after a shorter break. Also won on his racecourse debut so seems to do well fresh.
• September/October is a strong period with 3 wins from 3 starts in these months. June/July also a successful period – 6-4-1 with form of 11112P.
• Possible preference for right-handed tracks – 8-5-1 with form of 141112P1 going right-handed compared to 4-2-0 and 1P81 going left-handed.
• Worth noting 2 wins from 2 starts with a tongue-tie – 10-5-1 without.

Indevan

• Overall record: 21 starts – 7 wins – 3 places
• 2-1-1 at Gowran – first two starts were bumpers here, 2^nd in March 2013 and won in April 2013.
• Seems to prefer better ground – 16-7-1 on yielding or better, 5-0-2 on soft or worse.
• Jockeys: D J Casey 1-0-0, Danny Mullins 2-0-0, P W Mullins 2-1-1, Paul Townend 5-2-0, Ruby Walsh 11-4-2
• Very strong record in small fields – 8-4-2 in fields of 7 or less, 13-3-1 in bigger fields.
• Unplaced from 7 starts when back out within 30 days of his last start. 13-7-2 after a longer break.
• Strong record of 2 wins from 2 starts in October.

Texas Jack

• Overall record: 26 starts – 6 wins – 5 places
• 1-0-1 at Gowran – 2^nd in the grade 2 Red Mills Chase over 2m 4f last February
• Good record on fairly soft ground – 15-3-5 on soft or soft to heavy. 3-1-0 on heavy ground and 8-2-0 on ground better than soft to heavy.
• Jockeys: Paul Carberry 19-5-5, D J Condon 2-0-0, G N Fox 2-0-0, Barry Geraghty 1-0-0, J P McKeown 1-1-0, Ruby Walsh 1-0-0
• Strong record of 3-2-0 in fields of 16 runners or more.
• Seems to run well when back out quickly – 4-1-2 with form of 1232 when back out within 2 weeks of his last start.
• Decent record in September/October – 3-1-2 with form of 122. This drops to 8-2-1 in November/December.

Cailin Annamh

• Overall record: 21 starts – 9 wins – 5 places
• 2-1-0 in Gowran – 5^th in a 2m bumper on his racecourse debut in October 2012, won a 2m 4f hurdle here in October 2013.
• Strong record on all going types, from 5-3-1 on good to firm to 2-2-0 on soft.
• Jockeys: M Fahey 2-1-0, Barry Geraghty 11-5-1, AP McCoy 1-0-1, R M Power 6-2-3, Davy Russell 1-1-0
• Unplaced on sole grade 2 start in the past.
• Seems to prefer smaller fields – 11-7-2 in fields of 11 or less, 10-2-3 in fields of 12 or more.
• Record deteriorates as break prior to run gets longer – 3-2-1 when back out within 2 weeks, 11-6-2 when back out within 16-30 days of her last start, 6-1-2 after a longer break – so, the shorter the break, the better.
• August, September, October a very strong period – a combined record of 8-6-0 with form of 51111141.
• Preference for right-handed tracks – 15-9-4 compared to 6-0-1 going left-handed.
• Likes undulating tracks – extremely strong record of 12-7-4 on such tracks.

As always, the very best of luck from all of us here at The Parade Ring, enjoy the racing and remember only to bet what you can afford to lose.

Irish Derby Trends Analysis

It’s fair to say that the Irish Derby has been won by some fantastic colts, mostly thanks to Aidan O’Brien’s commitment to bringing his best performer over this trip to the Curragh following what’s usually an Epsom success – examples over the last couple of years have included Australia waltzing to victory last year and Camelot trudging through mud on his last great performance in 2012. In fact, O’Brien has only been denied victory once in the last 9 years, when Ruler Of The World failed to display anything resembling the talent he had showed in his Epsom victory and Jim Bolger’s Trading Leather won the race.

This year, Aidan O’Brien didn’t have one of the main contenders in Epsom, and his main hope for the race, Giovanni Canaletto finished 4^th – he hopes to better that result in the 150^th running of the Irish equivalent. However, he will have to reverse form with Jack Hobbs, 2^nd to the impressive Golden Horn in the Epsom Derby.

Our trends analysis predicted a surprise victory for Trading Leather in 2013, and then predicted Australia’s victory (along with everyone else) last year – can we make it three in a row?

Stall

Stall	Runners	Wins	W%	Places	P%	W/P	W/P%
1	9	1	11%	3	33%	4	44%
2	10	1	10%	1	10%	2	20%
3	9	1	11%	2	22%	3	33%
4	9	1	11%	1	11%	2	22%
5	10	3	30%	0	0%	3	30%
6	8	0	0%	3	38%	3	38%
7	10	0	0%	5	50%	5	50%
8	8	2	25%	1	13%	3	38%
9	7	0	0%	1	14%	1	14%
10	3	0	0%	1	33%	1	33%
11	4	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
12	3	1	33%	0	0%	1	33%
13	2	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%

We're going to look out for horses running from stalls 1, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10 and 12. This year there are only 8 runners so these horses are Carbon Dating (stall 1), Radanpour (5), Kilimanjaro (6), Storm The Stars (7) and Giovanni Canaletto (8).

Place Last Time Out

Place LTO	Runners	Wins	W%	Places	P%	W/P	W/P%
1st	22	4	18%	2	9%	6	27%
2nd	18	2	11%	4	22%	6	33%
3rd	7	1	14%	2	29%	3	43%
4th	12	0	0%	3	25%	3	25%
5th	8	1	13%	2	25%	3	38%
6th	3	0	0%	1	33%	1	33%
7th	1	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
8th	6	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
10th	4	0	0%	3	75%	3	75%
11th	2	1	50%	0	0%	1	50%
12th	2	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
28th	1	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%

Remember, this only includes races run in the UK or Ireland. 6 horses have run in the Irish Derby without having previously run at all in the UK or Ireland and these horses aren't included in the table. These include 2005 winner Hurricane Run and 2006 runner-up Gentlewave.

We're looking for a horse which finished in the top 5 last time out, or which finished 10th or 11th. Giovanni Canaletto, Highland Reel, Jack Hobbs, Radanpour, Storm The Stars and Qualify all fit this trend, having all finished in the top 4 on their last outing.

10-Year Trends

3) 10 of the last 10 winners ran in the last 30 days

All of this year’s runners fit this trend

4) 10 of the last 10 winners had had 4-7 previous starts

Radanpour has only run 3 times and Qualify has 10 previous starts to his name – the others fit this trend

5) 10 of the last 10 winners had run 2 or 3 times that season

Carbon Dating has already been out 5 times this year, Storm The Stars has been out 4 times, the others fit this trend

6) 9 of the last 10 winners had won a group race

Highland Reel has won a group 2 and Qualify won the group 1 Epsom Oaks

7) 9 of the last 10 winners had won over 1m 2f+

Jacks Hobbs, Kilimanjaro, Radanpour, Storm The Stars, Qualify fit this trend

The Big Table

	1	2	3	4	5	6	Total
Carbon Dating	Yes	No	Yes	No	No	No	2
Jack Hobbs	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	4
Highland Reel	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	4
Qualify	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	5
Radanpour	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	5
Kilimanjaro	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	4
Storm The Stars	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	No	Yes	4
Giovanni Canaletto	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	No	4

So, we’ve got joint winners but it may not be the horses which you might expect – Qualify (10/1) won the Oaks last time out and connections have taken the interesting path of taking on the boys in the Derby. Radanpour (20/1) won a listed race last time out but is unbeaten and looks an exciting prospect. It’s very tight at the top and one for small stakes but our bets will be:

0.5pts e/w on Qualify @ 10/1

0/5pts e/w on Radanpour @ 20/1

As usual, remember not to chase your losses and to only ever bet what you can afford to lose. And, as usual, the very best of luck.

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