World Hurdle Guide Online Now!

The Parade Ring's 32-page mega comprehensive statistical guide to the 2015 Ladbrokes World Hurdle, the fourth of 8 guides for 8 of the Cheltenham festival's most important races, is now online.

A few Cheltenham Guides are coming up today after the unprecedented success of the first three. The reviews and feedback have been outstanding and have confirmed that these guides are some of the most useful and powerful betting aids for some of Cheltenham's biggest races. This is the most in-depth view of the race available on the internet or anywhere else, analysing the performance of horses based on their country of origin and age and the performance of trainers and jockeys in this race and in similar conditions, studying and applying common 10-year trends and providing unique individual horse profiles and notes for each runner outlining their optimum conditions and the boxes which should be ticked in order for them to put in a big performance. Of course, we should mention that the guides are absolutely 100% free of charge.

Click Here To View Or Download The Guide!

The guide is split into six main sections:

1. We analyse the success of horses bred in each country in the race over the last 10 years, and then cross-reference their success with other factors to see under which conditions which horses do the best.
2. We analyse the success of horses in the same way again but this time based on their age and then do the same thing.
3. We look at all of the trainers who have had 5 or more runners in the race in the last 10 years (and have runners again this year) and summarise their runners in that space of time. Then we look at which trainers do the best at the festival, at the track, and over course and distance.
4. We do basically the same thing, but forget about trainers and look at jockeys - who are the best in the race, the best at the festival, the best at the track and the best over course and distance?
5. We look at some of the most common 10-year trends and look into their relevance (some are ridiculously misleading!) Then we do what nobody seems to want to do for you - find out which of this year's runners do and don't fit the trends.
6. We uniquely take a look at the careers of each of this year's runners, analysing the conditions under which they perform the best to determine what conditions are desirable for them and whether this race will suit for them - a powerful unique betting tool not available anywhere else.

Vital reading for anybody studying the World Hurdle - click here to view the guide or download it.

IMPORTANT: Our guides for the Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase and Gold Cup can be viewed by clicking those links, while the rest of our guides (in the same format) for the Arkle, RSA Chase, Ryanair Chase and Triumph Hurdle will be posted over the coming days - keep an eye on the blog and follow us on Twitter @TheParadeRing to be the first to see them!

Mullins Still Chasing Festival Success

Willie Mullins, the undisputed King of Irish jumps racing. Unchallenged as Irish Champion Trainer since 2008, he has been the figurehead of the Irish National Hunt scene for years, representing the country time and again as they launch an attack on major races in Britain and France. His stable simply goes from strength to strength, dominating the entries for almost every major race in Ireland and competing in plenty of the UK’s biggest contests too.

It has been all smiles at Cheltenham for Willie Mullins over
the past few years

Each year, the army he assembles to invade Prestbury Park in early March and steal as many of racing’s top honours from the hands of the British increases in strength and numbers. Gone are the days when Mullins brings under 20 horses to the festival – he has had over 30 runners over the four days in each of the last three years, and shows no sign of stopping. When the Irish look to win big at Cheltenham, it’s Mullins they look to.

And with good reason. Top trainer in three of the last four years, Mullins knows, and more importantly, has, what it takes to win at the festival. But should we place so much faith in him and follow him so easily?

The answer in short is no. Mullins’ record at the festival speaks for itself. However, we have to look deeper into the figures and stats to see what goes right for Mullins when those vital four days come around, and what seems to go strangely wrong…

Year	Runners	Wins	Win%	Places	Place%	Win/Place	Win/Place%
2014	37	4	11%	11	30%	15	41%
2013	35	5	14%	7	20%	12	34%
2012	35	3	9%	6	17%	9	26%
2011	25	4	16%	3	12%	7	28%

The last four years have seen huge consistency from Mullins, with at least a quarter of his runners making the frame each year. It’s these four years that we’ll focus our study on.

Firstly, let’s take a look at Mullins’ winners over this space of time:

2011: Hurricane Fly; Champion Hurdle, Quevega; Mare’s Hurdle, Final Approach; Vincent O’Brien County Handicap Hurdle, Sir Des Champs; Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle

2012: Quevega; Mares Hurdle, Champagne Fever; Champion Bumper, Sir Des Champs; Jewson Novices Chase

2013: Champagne Fever; Supreme Novices Hurdle, Hurricane Fly; Champion Hurdle, Quevega; Mares Hurdle, Back In Focus; National Hunt Chase, Briar Hill; Champion Bumper

2014: Vautour; Supreme Novices Hurdle, Quevega; Mares Hurdle, Faugheen; Neptune Investment Management Novices Hurdle, Don Poli; Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle

Notice anything? Yes, it’s in bold so that you might. Of these 16 winners, 12 were over hurdles. Another 2 were in the bumper, so we’re looking at only two wins in steeplechases at the festival over the last 4 years!

In this space of time, there have been 108 races run at the festival. 4 were the Champion Bumper, while 48 of the others were run over hurdles and 56 were run over fences. Willie Mullins, top trainer at the festival in three of the last four years has only managed to win two of these 56 chases in that space of time.

From this point onwards, our data will exclude the bumper.

Year	Winners	Chase	Hurdle
2014	4	0	4
2013	4	1	3
2012	2	1	1
2011	4	0	4

The first question that will spring to mind is whether or not Mullins has run more horses over hurdles than fences. The answer is yes. He has had 35 runners in chases at the last 4 festivals, and 77 over hurdles. However, does this completely explain the underperformance of Mullins’ horses in chases? No it does not.

Following are the statistics surrounding Mullins’ chasers at the festival in the last four years:

Year	Runners	Wins	Win%	Places	Place%	Win/Place	Win/Place%
2014	14	0	0%	4	29%	4	29%
2013	11	1	9%	2	18%	3	27%
2012	12	1	8%	2	17%	3	25%
2011	8	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%

4 of his runners were favourites with odds of 100/30 or less – their form reads P124 (25% wins). 14 of his hurdlers were favourites with odds of 100/30 or less, and their form reads 1133121134112F (50% wins).

In short, the record of Willie Mullins’ chasers at the Cheltenham festival is extremely underwhelming. Keep a close eye on Mullins’ runners at the festival this year, by all means, but also be sure to be cautious of anything he runs over fences. He may be charging towards Cheltenham with an army of many the best horses in Britain or Ireland, ready to go to war – but the stats don’t lie, and we need to take heed of these warnings.

Gold Cup Guide Online Now!

The Parade Ring's 32-page mega comprehensive statistical guide to the 2015 Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup, the third of 8 guides for 8 of the Cheltenham festival's most important races, is now online.

It's the climax of the exhilerating festival anybody considering having a bet on, intending to watch, or with any fleeting interest in the Cheltenham festival and its most famous, most signficant and most enthralling race will be hugely benefited by reading the guide. It's the most in-depth view of the race available on the internet or anywhere else, analysing the performance of horses based on their country of origin and age and the performance of trainers and jockeys in this race and in similar conditions, studying and applying common 10-year trends and providing unique individual horse profiles and notes for each runner outlining their optimum conditions and the boxes which should be ticked in order for them to put in a big performance. Of course, we should mention that the guides are absolutely 100% free of charge.

Click Here To View Or Download The Guide!

The guide is split into six main sections:

1. We analyse the success of horses bred in each country in the race over the last 10 years, and then cross-reference their success with other factors to see under which conditions which horses do the best.
2. We analyse the success of horses in the same way again bu this time based on their age and then do the same thing.
3. We look at all of the trainers who have had 5 or more runners in the race in the last 10 years (and have runners again this year) and summarise their runners in that space of time. Then we look at which trainers do the best at the festival, at the track, and over course and distance.
4. We do basically the same thing, but forget about trainers and look at jockeys - who are the best in the race, the best at the festival, the best at the track and the best over course and distance?
5. We look at some of the most common 10-year trends and look into their relevance (some are ridiculously misleading!) Then we do what nobody seems to want to do for you - find out which of this year's runners do and don't fit the trends.
6. We uniquely take a look at the careers of each of this year's runners, analysing the conditions under which they perform the best to determine what conditions are desirable for them and whether this race will suit for them - a powerful unique betting tool not available anywhere else.

Vital reading for anybody studying the Gold Cup - click here to view the guide or download it.

IMPORTANT: Our guides for the Champion Hurdle and Champion Chase can be viewed by clicking those links, while the rest of our guides (in the same format) for the World Hurdle, Arkle, RSA Chase, Ryanair Chase and Triumph Hurdle will be posted over the next week - keep an eye on the blog and follow us on Twitter @TheParadeRing to be the first to see them!

Champion Chase Guide Online Now!

The Parade Ring's 28-page mega comprehensive statistical guide to the 2015 Queen Mother Champion Chase, the second of 8 guides for 8 of the Cheltenham festival's most important races (following yesterday's Champion Hurdle Guide), is now online.

Absolutely anybody considering having a bet on, intending to watch, or with any fleeting interest in the Cheltenham festival and one of its most interesting, most intriguing and most puzzling races will be hugely benifited by reading the guide. It's the most in-depth view of the race available on the internet or anywhere else, analysing the performance of horses based on their country of origin and age and the performance of trainers and jockeys in this race and in similar conditions, studying and applying common 10-year trends and providing unique individual horse profiles and notes for each runner outlining their optimum conditions and the boxes which should be ticked in order for them to put in a big performance.

Of course, we should mention that the guides are absolutely 100% free of charge.

Click Here To View Or Download The Guide!

The guide is split into six main sections:
1. We analyse the success of horses bred in each country in the race over the last 10 years, and then cross-reference their success with other factors to see under which conditions which horses do the best.
2. We analyse the success of horses in the same way again bu this time based on their age and then do the same thing.
3. We look at all of the trainers who have had 5 or more runners in the race in the last 10 years (and have runners again this year) and summarise their runners in that space of time. Then we look at which trainers do the best at the festival, at the track, and over course and distance.
4. We do basically the same thing, but forget about trainers and look at jockeys - who are the best in the race, the best at the festival, the best at the track and the best over course and distance?
5. We look at some of the most common 10-year trends and look into their relevance (some are ridiculously misleading!) Then we do what nobody seems to want to do for you - find out which of this year's runners do and don't fit the trends
6. We uniquely take a look at the careers of each of this year's runners, analysing the conditions under which they perform the best to determine what conditions are desirable for them and whether this race will suit for them - a powerful unique betting tool not available anywhere else.

Vital reading for anybody studying the Champion Chase - click here to view the guide or download it.

IMPORTANT: The rest of our guides (in the same format) for the World Hurdle, Gold Cup, Arkle, RSA Chase, Ryanair Chase and Triumph Hurdle will be posted over the next week - keep an eye on the blog and follow us on Twitter @TheParadeRing to be the first to see them!

Champion Hurdle Guide Online Now!

The Parade Ring's 28-page mega comprehensive statistical guide to the 2015 StanJames Champion Hurdle, the first of 8 guides for 8 of the Cheltenham festival's most important races, is now online.

Absolutely anybody considering having a bet on, intending to watch, or with any fleeting interest in the Cheltenham festival and one of its most competitive, most important and most exciting races will be hugely benifited by reading the guide. It's the most in-depth view of the race available on the internet or anywhere else, analysing the performance of horses based on their country of origin and age and the performance of trainers and jockeys in this race and in similar conditions, studying and applying common 10-year trends and providing unique individual horse profiles and notes for each runner outlining their optimum conditions and the boxes which should be ticked in order for them to put in a big performance. Of course, we should mention that the guides are absolutely 100% free of charge.

Click Here To View Or Download The Guide!

The guide is split into six main sections:

1. We analyse the success of horses bred in each country in the race over the last 10 years, and then cross-reference their success with other factors to see under which conditions which horses do the best.
2. We analyse the success of horses in the same way again bu this time based on their age and then do the same thing.
3. We look at all of the trainers who have had 5 or more runners in the race in the last 10 years (and have runners again this year) and summarise their runners in that space of time. Then we look at which trainers do the best at the festival, at the track, and over course and distance.
4. We do basically the same thing, but forget about trainers and look at jockeys - who are the best in the race, the best at the festival, the best at the track and the best over course and distance?
5. We look at some of the most common 10-year trends and look into their relevance (some are ridiculously misleading!) Then we do what nobody seems to want to do for you - find out which of this year's runners do and don't fit the trends.
6. We uniquely take a look at the careers of each of this year's runners, analysing the conditions under which they perform the best to determine what conditions are desirable for them and whether this race will suit for them - a powerful unique betting tool not available anywhere else.

Vital reading for anybody studying the Champion Hurdle - click here to view the guide or download it.

IMPORTANT: The rest of our guides (in the same format) for the Champion Chase, World Hurdle, Gold Cup, Arkle, RSA Chase, Ryanair Chase and Triumph Hurdle will be posted over the next week - keep an eye on the blog and follow us on Twitter @TheParadeRing to be the first to see them!

Jonjo O'Neill Exclusive Interview

We’ll look back before we look ahead – winners at the festival each of the last 10 years and many great moments. Could you choose one highlight and why?

No doubt about that. Winning the Gold Cup has to be the highlight and to do that with Synchronised for JP McManus, who has been so much part of Jackdaws, made it even more special.  AP gave him an unbelievable ride.  The horse just began to bloom a couple of weeks before the race and the tragedy was that he was even better on National day.

As a trainer, what do you find it takes from a horse to win here at Cheltenham? How different is the festival and could you describe the atmosphere here in March?

"Winning the Gold Cup has to be the highlight"

They have to like the place, that's for sure.  Getting experience round the course, even if it's in October, is valuable and once they get the hang of it, that can be a great advantage for the big meeting.  Holywell is a good example of that. Taquin Du Seuil another, last season. John's Spirit too. Once they're out on the course, to be fair, it's the pace of the races in March that can catch even the best horses out. You can sometimes win a race in March with a horse that's inferior to another in terms of rating because the place  and the atmosphere suits them better.  Not being very far away suits us nicely as the can still be in their box at Jackdaws until late morning and they just have to go down the road.

When will we be seeing More Of That again and what will be the plans for him next season?

He'll be missing this year, which is a disappointment for everyone, particularly for JP.  He'll have a good holiday and we can start again in the autumn.

Auvergnat, Johns Spirit and Montdragon are entered in multiple races at the moment. What are your plans or thoughts as to where they will run?

It's difficult to say until much closer to the day.  We'll see how they are, what the ground is like and where other horses look to be heading.  Fortunately, we can leave that right to the last couple of days.

Are there any of your horses currently entered which you plan on skipping the festival with?

Shutthefrontdoor is the obvious one.  He's entered on Tuesday and we'll see whether that's the best plan for him on the way to getting him safely to Aintree.

What did you make of Taquin Du Seuil’s run in the Denman Chase and what do you make of his chances in the Ryanair?

Taquin Du Seuil - "Three miles is
beyond him at the moment"

We learnt plenty about him that day. Three miles is beyond him at the moment so we'll be sticking to two and a half and run him in either the Ryanair or the Handicap.

Johns Spirit ran very well early on in the season, could you share your thoughts on his run in the King George and how do you rate his chances in what now looks an open Ryanair Chase?

The Owner was keen to run to run him at Kempton and we were really pleased with how he went.  You'd not rule out another crack at the distance in the future.  For the time being, two and a half looks his best distance so the Ryanair is the obvious option.

Holywell looks a nice prospect for the Gold Cup – could you share your thoughts on the Gold Cup in general, possibly comment on the opposition and tell us what do you think of Holywell’s chances in the race?

He got his jumping together at Kelso and we were pleased with that run.  AP liked it but he'll be riding for JP so Holywell will be Richie's mount.  He's won at the last two festivals and he's definitely a spring horse. I'd say he's getting back to where we'd hope we'd be after that brilliant run under AP at Aintree so he's definitely worthy of run in the race.

Which of your horses do you feel are particularly underrated or may be going unnoticed heading towards the festival? Any dark horses which might surprise us?

"Goodwood Mirage might be our best hope of a win"

Goodwood Mirage has put AP on the floor a couple of times when we've felt he could have given a good account of himself.  He was the horse, if you remember, that extended AP's break from riding when they won at Wetherby.  He has a couple of options and if he could get over the first two or three hurdles safely, it will be interesting to see how he gets on.

Could you give us one tip for the festival and one horse to follow for next season?

One or two of Willie Mullins’ entries look serious contenders. Of our own, Goodwood Mirage might be our best hope of a win but they can soon make fools of us. Next season - Cloudy Copper never really showed us what we believe he is capable of and it would be nice to see him come back to the sort of form he showed us two seasons back.

Follow us on Twitter @TheParadeRing to see all of our latest exclusive Cheltenham interviews, guides and features! 

Goodwood Mirage is currently 20/1 for the Coral Cup, 20/1 for the County Hurdle and 16/1 for the Martin Pipe with Bet365. If you don't already have an account, open one here to avail of their special offers and free bets in the run-up to and throughout the Cheltenham festival!

Cheltenham Prep-Runs - The Track-By-Track Guide

The delicate fine-tuning in the weeks and months approaching the Cheltenham festival is unexplainably detailed and perfect; the daily work, the bits of training done on the gallops at home, and the ever-important final preparation run ahead of the festival.

Where and when to have this run is a question which will inevitably provoke disagreement, debate and differing opinions among spectators, pundits and connections. The variation in how you can choose to campaign a horse for Cheltenham is shown every year – Gold Cup favourite Silviniaco Conti will be having his first run since Boxing Day while Champion Chase favourite Sire De Grugy was brought back from injury to have to runs in quick succession in close proximity to the festival.

Leopardstown, Kempton and Cheltenham itself are just a few of the dozens of tracks offering ample opportunities for horses to warm up ahead of each race. Whether they have a simple run out in a class 2 or contest one of the most prestigious grade 1’s in the racing calendar, we always learn a lot about a horse’s claims in the build-up to the festival. But where is the best place for them to run?

We’re going to look at it from a statistical perspective to figure out where are the best and worst places to have your final run ahead of the Cheltenham festival. First, we look back over the last 10 years and pick out the best and worst tracks to have your final run before the festival.

R = Runners, W = Win, W% = Win%, P = Places (Excluding winners), W/P = Win+Places

Hot/Cold

So, the hot tracks – Uttoxeter is an interesting one as it’s not a common stop-off point for a horse on the way to Cheltenham and is better known as an alternative to Cheltenham, with its biggest race, the Midlands National, run the day after the Gold Cup. It’s closest meeting to the festival is held in early February. Despite the strong record, horses which had their last run at Newbury have been winless from 6 starts since 2009.

The other three “hot” tracks are all Irish – Punchestown, Leopardstown and Thurles. Punchestown is home of the Punchestown festival, structured very similarly to and widely regarded as the Irish version of the Cheltenham festival. Before Cheltenham, it hosts a decent juvenile hurdle, a decent novices hurdle, 2 mile chase, Grand National trial and Pertemps qualifier so there are plenty of opportunities for a horse to run there ahead of the festival.

Leopardstown however, is where the Irish runners are most likely to go before heading to Cheltenham. The flat track in South Dublin hosts almost all of the important Irish racing before the festival, with numerous fixtures throughout the winter and spring – the Irish Champion Hurdle is one of the main pieces of form ahead of the English equivalent at the festival, while Hennessy Gold Cup day hosts four Grade 1 races on the same card. The importance of Leopardstown has only grown in recent years – it has become the norm for at least 40 horses to run at the festival after a run at Leopardstown, for at least five horses to win at the festival after a run at Leopardstown, and for at least a third of them to make the frame. Not only this, but blindly backing runners which ran at Leopardstown last time out at the festival to a £/€1 stake would have yielded a profit of over £/€30 in each of the last 3 years!

Here’s a look at how horses which ran at Leopardstown last time out performed each year:

The other Irish track is another interesting one – Thurles hosts a couple of decent races in the months ahead of the festival (a grade 3 mares novice chase, the 2m 4f Brae Chase, a 2m 2f listed chase and the 2m 4f Michael Purcell novices hurdle). Thurles was a key track for prep runs from 2006-2009 (a winner at the festival in each of these years other than in 2008 when no horses had their festival prep run in Thurles) and again in 2013, when there was a winner and a placer from the 5 festival runners which had a run in Thurles last time out. Last year, there was one place from the four runners who ran at Thurles last time out. If you backed each horse than ran at Thurles last time out to a €/£1 stake for 10 years you would have a profit of €/£55.

Now, the “cold” tracks – Newcastle stands out as being absolutely shocking, with only 1 place from 33 runners at the festival. Generally these horses have been outsiders, but 1 place from 33 runners is a terrible record nonetheless. 

Following closely behind it in the worst records competition is Hereford – 2009 Grand Annual winner Oh Crick ran at Hereford on his way to the festival, but another 24 horses have tried taking the same route to Cheltenham in the last decade and all have failed.

Southwell has a similarly miserable record as a pre-festival prep run location with one winner and two places from 44 runners in the last 10 years while Huntingdon can claim a little more credit if not much, considering the fact that there have been no winners from 86 runners.

The races horses run in at the “cold” tracks listed are of a lower level than at the “hot” tracks which means that a lower class of horse runs and so their chances at the festival are always going to be lower up against tougher opposition. However, with terrible records, they’re definitely worth avoiding.

Most Common

That’s the most important bit, but we’ll include a few more things for further reference – on the left are the most common tracks for a horse to have their prep run ahead of the festival at and the success rates from each of these tracks in the last 10 years – as you can easily see, Leopardstown really stands out.

Less Common, More Successful

The hot and cold tracks were only compiled of tracks which at least 25 horses had had their prep runs at ahead of the Cheltenham festival in the last 10 years. This means that we could be missing out on some statistics which could be very interesting if not very reliable. Here are just two of the tracks which were more noticeable when we began to look at tracks with less than 25 runners.

Summary

The most important section by far was the hot and cold tracks, and we need to pay most attention to it. It tells us that Uttoxeter, Thurles and Punchestown and all very good tracks to have a prep run at ahead of the festival, but one stands out above the rest, and that's Leopardstown. We've also learned of the diabolical record of horses running after having a prep run at Newcastle, Hereford, Southwell or Huntingdon.

Mini-Angle

For those interested in finding angles and mini-systems for the festival, the table regarding Leopardstown will surely be of interest - the success of horses at the festival having run there last time out has grown each year and so have the profits, with over 30 points of profit when blindly backing these runners in each of the last 3 years.