Mullins Still Chasing Festival Success

Willie Mullins, the undisputed King of Irish jumps racing. Unchallenged as Irish Champion Trainer since 2008, he has been the figurehead of the Irish National Hunt scene for years, representing the country time and again as they launch an attack on major races in Britain and France. His stable simply goes from strength to strength, dominating the entries for almost every major race in Ireland and competing in plenty of the UK’s biggest contests too.

It has been all smiles at Cheltenham for Willie Mullins over
the past few years

Each year, the army he assembles to invade Prestbury Park in early March and steal as many of racing’s top honours from the hands of the British increases in strength and numbers. Gone are the days when Mullins brings under 20 horses to the festival – he has had over 30 runners over the four days in each of the last three years, and shows no sign of stopping. When the Irish look to win big at Cheltenham, it’s Mullins they look to.

And with good reason. Top trainer in three of the last four years, Mullins knows, and more importantly, has, what it takes to win at the festival. But should we place so much faith in him and follow him so easily?

The answer in short is no. Mullins’ record at the festival speaks for itself. However, we have to look deeper into the figures and stats to see what goes right for Mullins when those vital four days come around, and what seems to go strangely wrong…

Year	Runners	Wins	Win%	Places	Place%	Win/Place	Win/Place%
2014	37	4	11%	11	30%	15	41%
2013	35	5	14%	7	20%	12	34%
2012	35	3	9%	6	17%	9	26%
2011	25	4	16%	3	12%	7	28%

The last four years have seen huge consistency from Mullins, with at least a quarter of his runners making the frame each year. It’s these four years that we’ll focus our study on.

Firstly, let’s take a look at Mullins’ winners over this space of time:

2011: Hurricane Fly; Champion Hurdle, Quevega; Mare’s Hurdle, Final Approach; Vincent O’Brien County Handicap Hurdle, Sir Des Champs; Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle

2012: Quevega; Mares Hurdle, Champagne Fever; Champion Bumper, Sir Des Champs; Jewson Novices Chase

2013: Champagne Fever; Supreme Novices Hurdle, Hurricane Fly; Champion Hurdle, Quevega; Mares Hurdle, Back In Focus; National Hunt Chase, Briar Hill; Champion Bumper

2014: Vautour; Supreme Novices Hurdle, Quevega; Mares Hurdle, Faugheen; Neptune Investment Management Novices Hurdle, Don Poli; Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle

Notice anything? Yes, it’s in bold so that you might. Of these 16 winners, 12 were over hurdles. Another 2 were in the bumper, so we’re looking at only two wins in steeplechases at the festival over the last 4 years!

In this space of time, there have been 108 races run at the festival. 4 were the Champion Bumper, while 48 of the others were run over hurdles and 56 were run over fences. Willie Mullins, top trainer at the festival in three of the last four years has only managed to win two of these 56 chases in that space of time.

From this point onwards, our data will exclude the bumper.

Year	Winners	Chase	Hurdle
2014	4	0	4
2013	4	1	3
2012	2	1	1
2011	4	0	4

The first question that will spring to mind is whether or not Mullins has run more horses over hurdles than fences. The answer is yes. He has had 35 runners in chases at the last 4 festivals, and 77 over hurdles. However, does this completely explain the underperformance of Mullins’ horses in chases? No it does not.

Following are the statistics surrounding Mullins’ chasers at the festival in the last four years:

Year	Runners	Wins	Win%	Places	Place%	Win/Place	Win/Place%
2014	14	0	0%	4	29%	4	29%
2013	11	1	9%	2	18%	3	27%
2012	12	1	8%	2	17%	3	25%
2011	8	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%

4 of his runners were favourites with odds of 100/30 or less – their form reads P124 (25% wins). 14 of his hurdlers were favourites with odds of 100/30 or less, and their form reads 1133121134112F (50% wins).

In short, the record of Willie Mullins’ chasers at the Cheltenham festival is extremely underwhelming. Keep a close eye on Mullins’ runners at the festival this year, by all means, but also be sure to be cautious of anything he runs over fences. He may be charging towards Cheltenham with an army of many the best horses in Britain or Ireland, ready to go to war – but the stats don’t lie, and we need to take heed of these warnings.