Here we
are. March 13th, 2015. Every time we’ve watched one of the top races
of the calendar – the King George, the Hennessy, the Lexus – we’ve had one eye
on “that Friday in March”. When it arrives, it brings with it excitement and
anticipation. Regardless of which day brings with it most class (it tends to be
Tuesday), there’s no atmosphere quite like that on Gold Cup day.
This year’s
race is a fascinating affair. The favourite is Silviniaco Conti, who won his
second King George in a row on Boxing Day and proved himself to be one of the
best, if not the best staying chaser around. There’s no doubt that this horse
has class but will he win the Gold Cup?
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| Favourite Silviniaco Conti has won back to back King Georges |
I’m saying
no. A faller in the race in 2013 and 4th last year after arguably
hitting the front too early, he definitely prefers flat tracks than tracks like
Cheltenham. He seems to peak early on in the season and runs well after a short
break but hasn’t been seen since December. He also seems to prefer a smaller
field. You need a proven stayer in a Gold Cup and his best form is over a about
two furlongs shorter than this. On top of this, none of the horses he beat in
the King George were considered good enough horses or strong enough stayers to
compete in the Gold Cup. As far as I can see, Silviniaco Conti has everything
against him going into this Gold Cup. That being said, I would fancy his
chances if he goes to Aintree after this, on a flatter track in a smaller field
after a shorter break – perfect.
Silviniaco
Conti isn’t the only past runner to contest the Gold Cup again. Bobs Worth won
the race in 2013 and seems to have everything in his favour according to his
profile. However, we have to look at the form, and I would have to say that
other than his Lexus win last year, we haven’t seen the real Bobs Worth since
his Gold Cup win two years ago. It’s hard not to think that 2013’s Gold Cup
hero is past his best and although he’s widely regarded as the festival’s
forgotten horse, I won’t be backing him.
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| Lord Windermere won this last year |
Last year’s
winner was Lord Windermere, who seems to love it here and is undoubtedly
trained to peak on this day. His track record is strong and the race looks to
suit him to perfection today. His form in the build-up to the race has been
better than it was last season and he improved from the Lexus to the Irish Hennessy.
I was critical of him after last year’s Gold Cup, but I do think he could run
another big race today.
Houblon Des
Obeaux came into this race an outsider 12 months ago and maintains that status
this year, with quotes of 66/1 widely available. He’s winless so far this
season, runner-up on all three starts, including two 2nd’s behind
Many Clouds in November and Coneygree in February. His profile would suggest
that he’d be better over a shorter trip in a smaller field earlier on in the
season on a flatter track – it’s hard to see this being his day.
The Giant Bolster is a veteran of the race,
with form of 243 in the last three renewals, an incredible achievement. He
returns this year as a 10-year-old, one of the older horses in the field, and
it’s impossible to write him off in his bid to continue his consistency in the
race. However, he’s not one of the strongest contenders today.
Horses aged
10 and older have a bad record in the
race and there are a few among this field of 17. Bobs Worth is also 10 now as
is Boston Bob who has suffered festival misfortunes over the past three years –
2nd in the 2012 Albert Bartlett, he fell in the 2013 RSA and
finished 6th in the Ryanair last year. His Punchestown Gold Cup win
showed that he has serious potential (as he has shown on a number of occasions)
but there may be some question marks over his jumping.
On His Own
also has jumping issues but his very close 2nd in the race last year
has to be remembered. He probably would have had a say in the Lexus had he not
jumped violently right throughout and he did so (to a lesser extent) last time
out in the Irish Hennessy. Such mistakes won’t go unpunished today.
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| Djakadam won the Thyestes Chase & franked the Hennessy form |
The other
Willie Mullins runner is Djakadam who won the Thyestes Chase at Gowran in
January. He’s only 6 and is probably a better prospect for this race next year
than today. His profile also has negatives in that he should prefer a smaller
field than this and a shorter break before the race.
This
Thyestes Chase win franked the Hennessy Gold Cup form fantastically, as did a
number of other horses since the race – Hennessy winners have accumulated 5
subsequent graded wins since the race. Many Clouds himself since won on Trials
Day, beating Smad Place, Dynaste and The Giant Bolster in the process. He might
not be as capable of producing the same form at the end of the season but he
does certainly have claims today. Softer ground would be of benefit.
Smad Place
was 5th in the Hennessy and finished 2nd behind Many
Clouds in the BetBright Cup on Trials Day. He could run a decent race but he’s
going to find it tough to reverse the form with Many Clouds.
Coneygree
is 8 but has the least experience in the field, still a novice. The Gold Cup
has been a graveyard for novices in the past but Coneygree has proven himself
to be a real contender in beating everything in his past (in novice company and
beyond) so far this season. There are very few negatives in his profile – he’s a
bit of an unknown quantity.
Home Farm
looks an unlikely winner. He fell in the Lexus but had no excuses in the Irish
Hennessy last time out when he finished down the field and the evidence
suggests that he’s not up doing better at this level. Sam Winner hasn’t been
seen since finishing 3rd in the Lexus and has shown improvement so
far this season. He’ll still need to improve more to compete here.
Carlingford
Lough ran well in the Lexus and then won the Irish Hennessy – he’s clearly
improving and the money should come pouring in for him as AP McCoy’s last ever
Gold Cup ride. His jumping could potentially be an issue, and his profile is
full of negatives – he might prefer a slightly shorter trip, a smaller field, a
shorter break before running, and running earlier on in the season. He’s not a
bet for me today.
 |
| Road To Riches has become extremely consistent |
Noel
Meade’s Lexus winner is a serious contender. Road To Riches has developed a
wonderful consistency since the end of last season, winning the Galway Plate,
the Champion Chase at Down Royal and the Lexus, and finishing in the top 2 on
all of his last six starts. He doesn’t have the course form of his competitors
but other than that has the credentials to win this race and the form is
strong. He’s a worry if we oppose him.
This leaves
Holywell. Last year’s dual Cheltenham and Aintree winner had a shaky start to
this season running badly in a listed contest a long way behind Many Clouds. He
followed up by unseating when Sam Winner won a listed contest in December and
his Gold Cup credentials looked fairly ruined. However, his class 2 win last
time out showed that he was back to himself and it’s no secret that his best
form is always in the spring. His Cheltenham record is fantastic and his
profile is almost perfect (ideally I would prefer to have AP on board). He
seems like a very nice bet.
There are
plenty of dangers lurking, not least Road To Riches who should run a big race,
but I’m surprised to see that Lord Windermere has drifted out as far as 18/1 in
places. Like Holywell, he loves the festival, he loves the spring and he should
put in a good run. Bet365, Totesport, Ladbrokes, Betfred and Skybet are all
paying out on four places so if possible bet with one of them.
SELECTIONS: HOLYWELL E/W 12/1, LORD WINDERMERE
E/W 18/1
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