With Un De Sceaux's last two starts having been so
impressive that he's now commonly compared to an airplane and even Sprinter
Sacre, he's odds on in the Arkle and fully expected by the racing community to
justify these odds in style, treating the two-mile chase like a five furlong sprint, taking off from the
start and giving television cameramen nightmares, unable to fit both he and the
field into their views due to the massive margins he will leave between himself
and the also-ran's.
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| Un De Sceaux is the heavily supported favourite |
When betting at odds-on we have to attempt to find holes in
the cases of the favourites, problems with their claims to victory. Over time,
Arkle winners have tended to run patiently - in 2012, Sprinter Sacre tracked
Cue Card (2nd) and Al Ferof (4th) before taking the lead two out to win. In
2013, Simonsig tracked Overturn (4th) and Arvika Legionnaire (pulled up) to
take the lead at the second last and win. Last year it was a battle of two
front-runners to finish first and second, but this was a notable exception to
the trend of front-runners performing poorly in the Arkle.
Secondly, Un De Sceaux fell on his chasing debut. He was
under no pressure (he was clear from the fourth fence and was jumping the third
last when he fell) but still made a bad error. His two subsequent runs involved
identical tactics and resulted in wins, but his last start in the Irish Arkle
saw a similar error at the second last. To put it simply, he has fallen in the
past and his jumping isn't perfect.To add to this worry is the fact that a
horse hasn't won the Arkle after falling in the same season since Moscow Flyer
in 2002.
4/7 suddenly looks a bit short for Un De Sceaux, but wait,
there's more - Un De Sceaux is a very temperamental horse who sweats up a lot
before the start and could easily become overwhelmed by the occasion. He has
never run at one of the National Hunt season’s showcase meetings, and although
the atmosphere at Leopardstown last time out may have helped slightly in this
regard, it’s simply incomparable to the overwhelming atmosphere at Prestbury
Park on day one of the festival.
He’s a class act to say the least, but I’ll be keen to
oppose him at such a short price. The question, however, is what to oppose him
with.
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| The consistent Vibrato Valtat is probably the main challenger |
Vibrato Valtat looks the most obvious alternative, according
to the markets anyway. His jumping has been fairly strong since taking to
fences and he looks a smart type. After winning impressively at Warwick about a
month ago he was suddenly being touted as opposition to Un De Sceaux. It was
admittedly an impressive win but when looking at that form we have to take into
account exactly what he beat – nothing really in comparison to the opposition
which Un De Sceaux belittled in the Irish Arkle on his last start. At 6/1, he
may be a nice each-way option, but he shouldn’t be a match for Un De Sceaux on
talent alone.
Josses Hill hasn’t taken to fences completely naturally
since finishing 2nd in last year’s Supreme – the first of his three
starts over fences in particular was flooded with errors, and he could only
manage to finish runner-up in a class 2 at Kempton in his final prep run. His
form over fences reads 212 and he may not look to have the same class as the
two ahead of him in the market, but 14/1 could be a big price. My only doubt,
other than the fact that he doesn’t look a natural chaser, is that he may
prefer a flatter track than Cheltenham – his supporters will be quick to look
towards the Supreme 2nd in this regard, however.
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| Clarcam will have to reverse form with the favourite |
Clarcam looked a very interesting prospect when beating
Vautour at Leopardstown over Christmas on bad ground. He followed this up by
finishing 15 lengths behind Un De Sceaux in the Irish Arkle at Leopardstown and
it’s extremely tough to see him reversing that form. His record is far better
in the first half of the season suggesting that he might peak earlier than
would be ideal and he’s also more back-able soon after his last start.
25/1 is a big price for Sgt Reckless who is an interesting
each-way prospect. 4th in last year’s Supreme, he ran well on his
chasing debut to win a class 4 at Uttoxeter before disappointing in a Grade 1
hurdle at Kempton on Boxing Day. He then ran in a class 5 maiden on the flat in
January – an unusual preparation for an Arkle runner.
Smashing has only run in low class races since he began
chasing, finishing 3rd on his first start in November, 2nd
in another Beginners Chase the following month and 1st in January in
another 7k beginners chase. He’s certainly improving, but a lot more
improvement is needed ahead of this.
Three Kingdoms was also a runner in the Supreme last year,
finishing down the field in 12th. The McCoy money should come in for
him today and his form over fences so far probably justifies some market support
– 1121 so far with the last two both coming in Grade 2 races. He has beaten
Gods Own over fences but again it’s hard to see him competing with the top few
in the market.
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| Court Minstrel disappointed last time out |
Court Minstrel is an interesting each-way prospect for me
despite a bad run last time out. He was very disappointing finishing up behind
Vibrato Valtat and Dunraven Storm when last at Sandown in December and hasn’t
been seen since. However, a longer break should be of benefit today, the ground
should suit better, he likes left-handed tracks and tends to peak at the end of
the season – expect a much better performance today than at Sandown.
Gods Own maintained his novice status throughout last season
and began this term well with a Grade 2 win at Exeter before two bad runs in
December which could both be put down to soft ground not suiting him. Back on
better ground, his claims should be better but I’m not convinced that
Cheltenham is his track – a right-handed flatter venue may be more to his
liking.
We don’t really know what Sail By The Sea could be capable
of, even if he is a bit inexperienced. He’s completely unexposed with only four
starts to his name, including an impressive win last time out in a class 4 at
Chepstow.
I’m not convinced that Dunraven Storm should be the rank
outsider with odds of 66/1 insulting him slightly. He fits the average profile
of an Arkle winner almost perfectly and should like the ground especially if it
stays dry between now and the off. A strong preference for right-handed tracks
and a bad record in March are the negatives but I wouldn’t completely write him
off to the extent that everyone else is.
The likelihood is that Un De Sceaux could be too good for
these. However, we’ve already outlined our doubts and he’s odds-on, so an
each-way option has to be the choice. It looks likely that Vibrato Valtat will
chase Un De Sceaux home or take advantage of any mistakes from the favourite to
win and he seems a very safe each-way option. At massive odds, Court Minstrel
has to be taken into consideration for the longshot bet of the day.
SELECTION: VIBRATO
VALTAT E/W 6/1
LONGSHOT OF THE DAY:
COURT MINSTREL E/W 33/1
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