The tapes go up and the roar sounds around Prestbury Park.
The festival has begun. At 1:30, a year of waiting will be over, the
anticipation will have become almost unbearable, and the running of the Supreme
Novices Hurdle will signal the beginning of the highlight of a jump racing
fan's year.
Willie Mullins won the race the last two years in a row with
two very good horses in Champagne Fever and Vautour. Given the incredible
quality and depth of the army he takes over the Irish Sea to Cheltenham each
year, when he describes a horse as one of the nicest he's ever taken there, we
sit up and take notice. Such is the case with Douvan.
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| Douvan has convincingly answered all questions asked of him to date. |
He was brought to Mullins' yard this season after impressing
in two starts overseas and is unbeaten from two starts on these shores. He made
virtually all the running to win with incredible ease on his Irish debut at
Gowran Park last November, earning him odds-on favouritism when appearing again
after Christmas in the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer Novices Hurdle at Punchestown.
Again, he impressed visually and won with absolute ease, showing an undeniable
class. The evidence would point towards this having been a particularly weak
renewal of the race, however, with no subsequent form of note so far and no
exciting prospects on the horizon.
The £7k novices hurdle at Gowran did, however, feature what
is becoming a consistent Grade 2 performer in Modem (5th), and, more notably, a
next-time-out Grade 1 winner in Sizing John who came out on top of some classy
sorts in a messy race at Leopardstown over Christmas. He is, however, still an
outsider for this race.
Douvan has been regularly compared to Vautour in the run-up
to the Supreme. They both ran in a low-class race before Christmas, both then
went straight to the Moscow Flyer at Punchestown and passed that test with
flying colours. However, Vautour stopped off at Leopardstown to make his mark
in Grade 1 company in the Deloitte Novices Hurdle on his way to festival glory
- Douvan did not. Vautour beat a well-respected top class horses in The Tullow
Tank on his way to festival glory - Douvan did not. Vautour was challenged,
taken off the bridle and forced to get involved in a battle on his way to
festival glory - Douvan was not.
He has answered every question asked of him convincingly,
but the Supreme will be an entirely different test. The best two-mile novices
hurdlers in existence will all compete for this, and we don't know as of yet
whether Douvan is classy enough to beat them on the bridle, and if not how will
he perform when put under a bit of pressure. The theme of unanswered questions
begins in the first race and will continue for four days.
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| L'Ami Serge has impressed to date with some small jumping errors the only setback. |
The English defence against this carefully planned tactical
Irish invasion is led in this race by Nicky Henderson's charge L'Ami Serge. A
much more experienced horse than Douvan, he ran five times at Auteil while a
resident at the yard of Guillaume Macaire (with form of 323622). His
crossbar-hitting days came to an end when he arrived on British shores and
became familiar with the classic partnership of Barry Geraghty and Nicky
Henderson, who led him to three wins from three starts in the space of a month
and a half. He won easily despite a nerve-wracking mistake at the last when the
race was won on his English debut in listed handicap company at Newbury.
He took a step up in class to win an extremely weak Grade 2
back in novice company at Ascot in December, again making it look easy but
making a mistake at the last. He was last seen in Grade 1 company (but in a
ridiculously weak renewal of the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle) at Sandown last time out.
Jumping issues were still evident with L'Ami Serge making an error at the
fourth hurdle and hanging left over the last, but this did little to take away
from the impressive nature of the run.
Harry Fry's Jollyallan has had six starts to date but still
runs green. He has a big engine and plenty of potential but errors and his
immaturity have plagued his starts and limited his success to date. Since
taking to hurdles this season, he has won three races (at Exeter and Newbury in
November and Kempton over Christmas) but finished 2nd behind Garde La Victoire
at Sandown in a listed race last time out, when his greenness ultimately cost
him a shot at victory. He made mistakes at the first jump and the second last
and was eventually beaten on the run-in to lose by half a length.
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| Jollyallan has a serious engine but needs to mature. |
Shaneshill was one of the best around for Mullins in bumpers
last year, 2nd in the Champion Bumper here and winning it at Punchestown to
finish off a wonderful season. Since then, he has taken to hurdles with two
starts to date, winning his maiden against opposition considered to be far
inferior to him and finishing 2nd behind No More Heroes when odds-on favourite
in a Grade 2 at Navan next time out. Jumping hasn't come naturally to him so
far but there were sure signs of improvement in this regard from his first
hurdles start to his second.
Alvisio Ville won his maiden at Leopardstown as was expected
but didn't have enough to beat Nichols Canyon, a proven Grade 1 performer on
his next start at Leopardstown last month.
Qewy by contrast was a lot more impressive last time out,
winning a class 2 at Newbury in style. It was only his second start over
hurdles and it had been almost a year since he picked up his last win in a
listed race on the flat at Leopardstown. He was beaten by Aso, who was available
at prices of 66/1 for today before being withdrawn ahead of the final
declarations, in his first start over hurdles and he seems relatively
ineffective on good ground (just one place from five starts on good or better
compared to three wins and a place from eight starts on softer ground).
Tell Us More is another Mullins entry. He won his maiden
with ease, looking very impressive in doing so at Gowran before finishing 2nd
in a Grade 1 at Naas in January. The horse that beat him that day was McKinley,
an experienced contender with 9 starts and 4 wins over hurdles to date.
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| Sizing John's form over hurdles reads 121, only ever beaten by Douvan. |
Sizing John has had three starts over hurdles. He won two of
them including a Grade 1 last time out and holds form of 121; the only horse to
beat him was Douvan. Seedling has also been very consistent over the past
while, with form of 23111 since finishing 10th on his first start over hurdles.
All of this form has been of at a very low class in comparison to his rivals
today, however. Most of Bentelimar's form (113011 since taking to hurdles) is
in handicaps, with a listed win last time out to boot.
Some Plan and Velvet Maker make up the field - the former
has by far the better claims, with form of 121 over hurdles in class 4, 3 and 2
races respectively. He's improving but his progress would have to be massive
were he to have claims today. Velvet Maker only broke his maiden last time out
on his fourth attempt and has only run in low-class races.
The Supreme can be a graveyard for favourites and although the
jolly won with extraordinary style last year, I’m keen to take on Douvan. L’Ami
Serge’s jumping errors are of worry and Jollyallan needs to mature a bit so it’ll
be an each-way bet for us here. A few outsiders look to have claims; Bentelimar’s
consistency is worth noting and he certainly seems to be improving, while Qewy
was impressive last time out but the ground seems a bit too dry to back him.
Two longshots which may be overpriced are Some Plan and Sizing
John. The former fits the average profile for the race very nicely and has that
course experience which can be a massive advantage when the festival comes
around. He will aim to lead if his previous runs are anything to go by. This
worked well for him in the past but he will have serious class behind him today
and making all will not be easy.
The latter has Grade
1 success to his name, a weak race as it may have been, and has the impressive
record of only having lost to Douvan.
When it comes down to picking one horse which stands out as
a potential each-way opportunity it’s Seedling that gets the nod. 3 wins from 3
starts since joining Greatrex’s yard, he could well have more to offer even if
he has never run against opposition comparable to today’s. He has the massive
advantage of being the only horse in the field with a course win and runs well
fresh. He’s by no means a nap to begin the festival but 25/1 is a big price and
I’m willing to put a small bet on a longshot in what can often be a betting
minefield.
SELECTION: SEEDLING
E/W 25/1
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