Day 3 - 2:40 Ryanair Chase Preview & Selections

This race is the definition of an open, competitive affair. The absence of Cue Card and Dynaste, winners of the last two renewals who were both aimed at this year’s race before being ruled out due to injury, has opened the door for some very interesting contenders in this field of 14. We’ve used our guide to attempt to find some value in the race – you can view it and draw your own conclusionshere.

Favourite Don Cossack is running very well this season

Favourite is Don Cossack, a German-bred 8yo from the yard of Gordon Elliott. Elliott is of course a man we need to take notice of when the festival comes around each year, a shrewd Irish raider comparable to Noel Meade or Mouse Morris. The fact that Don Cossack is German-bred may be a setback in itself – 130 have run at the festival in the last 10 years and only 3 have one, with Pont Alexandre just one of the more fancied German-bred horses to be turned over in that time. Don Cossack has impressed this season, though, with 4 wins from 4 starts, all in graded races. Wonderful Charm is actually the only horse in the field that he has beaten, but Gold Cup contenders Boston Bob and Lord Windermere are a couple of the big names which have finished behind him already this season.

The only other horse in the field not to be bred in France or Ireland is Wishfull Thinking, a British-bred 12-year-old. Although history would suggest that being British-bred is not the same burden in this race as it is in some others, being a 12yo definitely is. Horses of his age rarely run in the bigger races at the festival and are very rarely successful – only 14 horses aged 12 or older have contested Grade 1’s in the last 10 years and all of them have failed to make the frame. Wishfull Thinking has managed to win two Grade 2 races this season but was pulled up in the King George when last seen in conditions which he should have preferred to today’s.

The next oldest horse is Hidden Cyclone, 10 years of age. This may not be a bit setback with the 10yos the exception to the downward trend in success based on age – they actually do better than the 9yos. Hidden Cyclone looks like a very interesting contender. He won the Tied Cottage Chase at Punchestown last time out but of more interest may be his Grade 1 2^nd before that at Leopardstown over Christmas, when he had Ballycasey and Uxizandre behind him.

Grey Ballycasey has plenty of form to
reverse

The former generally peaks at that time of year, and tends to do better in smaller fields and after a longer break so he’s hard to back today, even with the in-form Ruby Walsh on his back (Ruby has a notable level of consistency in this race). He travelled to Ascot after the aforementioned disappointing 7^th at Leopardstown and finished 3^rd of 5 in the Grade 1 Ascot Chase. Balder Succes and Ma Filleule were ahead of him that day, so he has plenty of form to reverse if he’s to have a say in this race.

Balder Succes on his last two starts but these were both in small fields – this excerpt from our post-racing notes after the first of these wins explains why he’s not being backed today. “The winner could run in the Champion Chase, but the Ryanair looks the more likely option, with odds of 16/1 at best for that race. However, it's worth noting that he has failed to place on three previous starts at Cheltenham but was impressive when winning at Aintree last April, and that he seems to have a preference for flat tracks. When you factor in his record of 15 runs, 9 wins and a place in fields of 7 or less (a smaller field is much more likely in the Melling Chase than the Ryanair or Queen Mother), it's easy to see why skipping the festival and going straight to the Melling Chase at the Grand National meeting in Aintree could be a much better option.”

Ma Filleule, who chased home Balder Succes last time out, is definitely an interesting candidate and has the advantage of the Henderson/Geraghty combo. Being 7 years old and French-bred is a big plus in the Ryanair but like Balder Succes, I would think that he may prefer a smaller field and flatter track – and maybe even softer ground. He hasn’t won yet this season despite having run in conditions which should have suited better than today’s do.

Double Ross - also has to reverse form today.

Double Ross is another which I’d find tough to back today for a number of reasons. He was pulled up in the King George behind Johns Spirit, Wonderful Charm and Wishfull Thinking and more recently finished over 10 lengths behind Taquin Du Seuil in the Denman Chase. He may want softer ground, he may want a longer trip, and he may want a right-handed track. I see nothing which tempts me to back him today.

Johns Spirit finished 6^th in the King George, a race full of non-stayers this year, and hasn’t been seen since. The long break after a tough race alone means that he’s not an attractive prospect – Ryanair winners tend to come into the race after a top 3 finish or something similar.

Eduard is the only runner never to have competed a Grade 1 in the past. He has maintained some sort of consistency in Grade 2 and listed races but he will need to step up in facing proven Grade 1 horses. Third Intention has made many attempts at Grade 1 races – he hasn’t managed to place from 7 starts in top company, and there’s nothing to suggest that this will be any different with his form this season inconsistent to say the least (153F1).

Wonderful Charm has a similar lack of Grade 1 success with 0 wins and 0 places from 4 starts in this company – like Johns Spirit, he hasn’t been seen since finishing 7^th in the King George and although he should prefer Cheltenham to Kempton, his preparation isn’t ideal.

Foxrock was 2^nd in the Irish Hennessy in front of some very good horses. It’s not until tomorrow’s Gold Cup that we’ll find out for sure just how strong the Irish Hennessy/Lexus form is this year but on ratings but he had last year’s Gold Cup 1^st and 2^nd and Punchestown Gold Cup winner behind him so in theory the form should be rock solid. He tends to peak slightly earlier than this though and would have liked the softer ground at Leopardstown.

Uxizandre is a big price but loves Cheltenham

At a big price, Taquin Du Seuil looks a serious contender to me. French-bred, 8 years old, he more or less fits the bill according to the first two sections of our guide. His last two starts have been disappointing but I would think that he has been crying out for better ground which he’ll get here today and he’s in with an each-way chance.

However, even more value is represented by Uxizandre at 20/1. A French-bred 7yo (even better) his last two starts have been shocking, but if we think back to how he came alive at Cheltenham in November to beat yesterday’s Champion Chase winner among others, we see a different picture. He seems to love it here, having run a massive race to finish 2^nd in last year’s JLT on his other course start. March is one of his best months (a win and a place from two previous starts) and he loves a track with undulations as extreme as Cheltenham’s. A first time visor could bring about more improvement and he looks a big price to me.

SELECTION: UXIZANDRE E/W 20/1