Tuesday, 10 March 2015

Cheltenham Day 2 Preview & Selections

1.30 – Neptune Novices Hurdle – Grade 1 – 2m 5f

See our full preview of the race here.

Parlour Games is interesting here because he seems to be a strong contender but the trends would suggest that he has a lot to find – a British-bred horse heavily campaigned this season who has already finished outside the top 2 this term.

Of more interest are Outlander and Vyta Du Roc. Overlooking a Mullins runner is dangerous as we learned the hard way yesterday, but Nichols Canyon also has the disadvantage of being British-bred and hasn’t run over further than 2m 2f. Outlander has never run on quicker ground  and may prefer a right-handed track, while we’re not sure how strong his Grade 2 form is after yesterday.

Vyta Du Roc should be able to reverse the form with Parlour Game today based on his improvement to date. His jumping has improved and his progression is consistent so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him land a place today. He’s not the only course winner in this field but he is a horse which I feel should be perfectly suited to Cheltenham. 8/1 is a generous price.

SELECTION: VYTA DU ROC E/W 8/1

2.05 – RSA Chase – Grade 1 – 3m

See our full preview of the race here.

See our 24-page mega-guide to help you to pick the winner here.

Don Poli heads the betting here. His Grade 1 winning form stands out with Adriana Des Mottes the only other horse with a Grade 1 win to her name. Don Poli was impressive in beating Apache Stronghold among others after Christmas at Leopardstown, and his jumping looked to improve from his first start over fences to his second.

Kings Palace has three wins from three starts over fences, the first two of which were at Cheltenham and were eye-catchingly impressive. However, he was less impressive at Newbury last month in a two-horse race, beating Vivaldi Collonges last time out. A two-horse race isn’t generally particularly easy for a horse to run in, but Kings Palace’s jumping errors were worth noting and he had to work slightly harder than expect for the win against lesser opposition.

Barry Geraghty and Neil Mulholland’s record this season is 5 wins and a runner-up from 7 runners together. They team up here with The Young Master, unbeaten in four starts over fences including two listed successes on his last two starts. There was also what could be some useful experience in the form of a Cheltenham success among his chasing victories.

SELECTION: THE YOUNG MASTER E/W 5/1

2.40 – Coral Cup – Grade 3 – 2m 5f

The last two winners of this carried 11-6 and 11-12 so although the two horses which stand out to me here have heavy weights on their backs, I’m not too worried with class often coming to the fore here.
Top weight Volnay De Thaix is fairly lightly raced this season with just three starts – a class 2 win inn November, a Grade 3 4th the same month and a Grade 2 2nd here in December. He looks open to some more improvement which he may need if he’s going to win today despite top weight, but 20/1 is a big price and I can see him being involved. Everything about his profile seems to be perfect for this race and I’d have high hopes for him today.

Second in the weights is Bears Affair, who also may have a bit more to find to defy the 11-6 he carries, but his last two runs (2nd in two class 2’s) before Christmas would suggest that he has claims. He performs well on better ground and has two wins from two past starts in March.

SELECTIONS: VOLNAY DE THAIX E/W 20/1, BEARS AFFAIR E/W 28/1

3.20 – Queen Mother Champion Chase – Grade 1 – 2m

See our full preview of the race here.

See our 28-page mega-guide to help you to select the winner here.

Sire De Grugy was impressive last time out and is a worthy favourite but we don’t know what the returning Sprinter Sacre may be capable of and so I’m more comfortable betting each-way here. Back to 2m, Champagne Fever should run a big race given the fact that he seems to come alive at the festival each year. At longer odds, Simply Ned’s profile seems to fit the race (as can be seen in Part 6 of our guide) and he’s our longshot bet of the day.

SELECTION: CHAMPAGNE FEVER E/W 5/1
LONGSHOT OF THE DAY: SIMPLY NED E/W 20/1

4.00 – Glenfarclas Handicap Chase – Class 2 – 3m 7f

Favourite Any Currency looks to have a good chance here but he’s as short as 5/1 in places and I can’t call that value. Therefore, I’d rather have an each-way bet on Quantitativeeasing, who finished 2nd to Any Currency when they both carried 11-0 here over this trip in December. Since then he finished 4th at Punchestown on soft ground which he probably dislikes and we can put a line through that run. He should be able to put in a decent run today and has place claims at 10/1.

SELECTION: QUANTITATIVEEASING E/W 10/1

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