Monday, 9 March 2015

Day 1 - 3:20 Champion Hurdle Preview & Selection

And so it’s on to one of the most exciting, important, exhilarating races of the festival – the Champion Hurdle. 2 miles, 8 fences – maximum class over the minimum trip.

And with class, the natural place to start is the bookies favourite, the punter’s favourite, and the unsentimental Ruby Walsh’s favourite today – Faugheen. Unbeaten in eight starts, Faugheen the Machine has done everything asked of him since and prior to winning the Neptune almost a year ago. Breath taking displays as described in our Faugheen feature – but it’s our job now to pick holes in them, and it’s easier to do so than his price would suggest.

Faugheen The Machine has been extremely impressive to date
Firstly, Faugheen’s hurdling. Almost all of his 7 starts over obstacles have featured mistakes, blunders and errors over the hurdles. His class and ability to maintain momentum has made up for these mistakes, ensuring that he has always stayed on his feet and never been beaten. But what was there to beat him? Purple Bay, 2nd behind him last time out, wasn’t considered good enough to compete today. It might be slightly insulting to say that there was nothing of note behind him in last year’s Neptune, but there was certainly nothing of the class of Faugheen’s competitors today.

Faugheen has never run against this sort of opposition. Two Champion Hurdle winners and possibly the unluckiest loser in recent memory provide the competition today; a far cry from what he has faced in the past. Furthermore, Faugheen has never been put under real pressure in the past. Jezki and The New One, lovers of the Cheltenham hill, will not hand it to him easily today and the likelihood is the Faugheen will have to fight for this. Does he have the ability to do so? I simply don’t know.

Yes, the favourite has been fantastic in all of his starts to date, yes, I’m being overly critical, but that’s what we have to do when looking at a horse of these odds before deciding that we trust in its ability enough to back it.

Hurricane Fly won this twice but this looks like one too many
Stablemate Hurricane Fly has won the Champion Hurdle twice and is a truly incredible horse with an astounding twenty two Grade 1 successes to his name. His resurgence of form this season has been heart-warming to watch, and I doubt that there’s a fan of this sport on either side of the Irish sea that would begrudge the mighty Fly another victory in this race. However, although I’d love it as much as the next man, I just can’t see it happening. The record of 11yos at the festival is well documented (in our Cheltenham ground rules feature) and this is surely one too many for Hurricane Fly.

I’m not saying that his runs around Leopardstown this winter weren’t classy performances – they were, but Leopardstown is Hurricane Fly’s second home and he was always going to be tough to beat there. Barring an unprecedented colossal storm over Gloucestershire tonight resulting in a notable change in the official going description, Hurricane Fly is hard to back.

Last year’s Champion Hurdle winner went on to beat the Fly again at Punchestown before losing to him three times this winter. They were, however, all creditable displays (he blundered the last on his last appearance but other than that would have finished 2nd) and I can see him doing well here today. He liked Cheltenham and there were very few chinks to be found in his armour last year when winning this; underrated immediately due to the lack of luck which befell The New One, it wouldn’t be a shock to see him repeat the feat a year later.

However, he had the benefit of having Barry Geraghty on his back last year when AP McCoy chose to ride My Tent Or Yours. Geraghty is the master of races over this trip at Cheltenham and guided Jezki to a fantastic win. This year, however, AP McCoy will be riding Jezki. Jezki’s record with McCoy on board is 3 wins and 2 places from 7 starts. His record with Geraghty is 5 wins from 5 starts. I would be much more comfortable in backing him to retain his Champion Hurdle crown was Geraghty taking the reins again today.

Jezki won last year but doesn't have the benefit of Barry
Geraghty this year
Not only will McCoy’s presence be a possible disadvantage to Jezki (that statement may be considered blasphemy at a time when the racing world are worshipping AP!) but it will certainly effect the markets, with the racing public wanting nothing more than to see their beloved McCoy kick off the festival with a win in the Champion Hurdle. As a result, Jezki’s price is 4/1 and shortening.

Jezki being such a significant steamer means that those behind him in the market will drift – most notably The New One. The aforementioned lack of luck in last year’s race was suffered by the Twiston-Davies charge as the up-and-coming Our Conor tragically fell in this race last year, badly hampering The New One who went on to recover in style, tearing up the hill in pursuit of Jezki and My Tent Or Yours to finish 3rd. He immediately became the favourite for this year’s race and went on to win at Aintree the following month, but only in a photo finish and not in the style of a 4/9 favourite, or an ante post Champion Hurdle favourite for that matter.

The New One was very unlucky not to win this race last year
A listed win at Kempton and a class 2 win at Haydock this season were followed by two grade 2 successes. He was wholly unimpressive in the latter, his jumping dodgy throughout to say the least. The heavy ground and terrible conditions may explain in some part why he didn’t run well, but backers today will have to hope that in the two months off the track this problem has been solved. However, convincing or not, this brought his record to 5 wins from 5 starts since his eye catching Champion Hurdle run last year.

The depth of the field probably doesn’t compare to last year’s – Our Conor and My Tent Or Yours aren’t present, and although Faugheen is a massive addition, it does leave us with four main contenders as opposed to last year’s five.

Of the others, few seem to be in with a real chance of winning. The field is made up by Arctic Fire, Vaniteux, Kitten Rock and Bertimont.

Arctic Fire chased home Hurricane Fly (and actually finished ahead of Jezki) in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown last time out, and has a very likeable consistency having finished up in the top 3 on all of his last 7 starts. He wasn’t far behind Jezki and the Fly in the Ryanair Hurdle at Leopardstown at Christmas either and was 3rd in another Grade 1 earlier on this season. He seems to like bigger fields and right-handed tracks but it’s still understandable that those hunting for value see him as a viable each-way option.

Vaniteux could well be the pick of the outsiders
Vaniteux was 3rd in last year’s Supreme Novices Hurdle, a race in which Nicky Henderson has run some good horses in the past. He has been runner-up in his three subsequent starts this season, most notably having 4 lengths to find with The New One in the International Hurdle at Cheltenham in December. To me, he’s one of the more interesting each-way chances for those looking for value in a race. There are three places to be filled and he could well be in the mix for one of them, with a good record under these conditions.

Kitten Rock is also considered an outsider despite the fact that he chases his fifth win in a row in this race. He has left more to be desired in Grade 1 company in the past, however, and although he has built up some consistency and momentum, this is a different class to anything he has beaten in the past.

The fact that Bertimont is 200/1 with some firms shows the competitive nature of the race – he has never run in a grade 1 but placed in two of his four starts in grade 2 company. He was a few lengths behind a well below-par The New One at Haydock last time out and he would need more than one horse to underperform today to be in with a real shout.

So, three horses at the top of the market are of the most interest unless we get lots of rain in which case the Fly will come into the equation. Jezki will probably end up representing no value due to the punters lumping on to AP, while there are too many question marks over Faugheen to back him at evens. This leaves us with The New One, quickly drifting and bidding to make up for last year’s misfortune.

Having made the frame in all but one of his starts to date (the only disappointment in this regard was in the Champion Bumper back in 2012), the McCoy factor making him an each-way price means value for the punter.

If Faugheen is to disappoint, The New One should be primed and ready to take advantage. If not, it’s still hard to see him finish outside the top 3 (hoping that no horses are withdrawn in the next 18 hours and that there will be three each-way places). I’ll be surprised to see The New One finish outside the top three (which will mean money back for us) and it would be no surprise to see him come out on top (in which case we’d make a tidy profit).

For those looking for a big-priced bet, Vaniteux is of more appeal to me than Arctic Fire, but it’s The New One that I’ll be backing today with the each-way security making him look like a very strong bet.

SELECTION: THE NEW ONE E/W 9/2

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