And so it’s
on to one of the most exciting, important, exhilarating races of the festival –
the Champion Hurdle. 2 miles, 8 fences – maximum class over the minimum trip.
And with
class, the natural place to start is the bookies favourite, the punter’s
favourite, and the unsentimental Ruby Walsh’s favourite today – Faugheen.
Unbeaten in eight starts, Faugheen the Machine has done everything asked of him
since and prior to winning the Neptune almost a year ago. Breath taking
displays as described in our Faugheen feature – but it’s our job now to pick
holes in them, and it’s easier to do so than his price would suggest.
Faugheen The Machine has been extremely impressive to date |
Firstly,
Faugheen’s hurdling. Almost all of his 7 starts over obstacles have featured
mistakes, blunders and errors over the hurdles. His class and ability to
maintain momentum has made up for these mistakes, ensuring that he has always
stayed on his feet and never been beaten. But what was there to beat him? Purple
Bay, 2nd behind him last time out, wasn’t considered
good enough to compete today. It might be slightly insulting to say that
there was nothing of note behind him in last year’s Neptune, but there was
certainly nothing of the class of Faugheen’s competitors today.
Faugheen
has never run against this sort of opposition. Two Champion Hurdle winners and
possibly the unluckiest loser in recent memory provide the competition today; a
far cry from what he has faced in the past. Furthermore, Faugheen has never
been put under real pressure in the past. Jezki and The New One, lovers of the
Cheltenham hill, will not hand it to him easily today and the likelihood is the
Faugheen will have to fight for this. Does he have the ability to do so? I
simply don’t know.
Yes, the
favourite has been fantastic in all of his starts to date, yes, I’m being
overly critical, but that’s what we have to do when looking at a horse of these
odds before deciding that we trust in its ability enough to back it.
Hurricane Fly won this twice but this looks like one too many |
Stablemate
Hurricane Fly has won the Champion Hurdle twice and is a truly incredible horse
with an astounding twenty two Grade 1 successes to his name. His resurgence of
form this season has been heart-warming to watch, and I doubt that there’s a
fan of this sport on either side of the Irish sea that would begrudge the
mighty Fly another victory in this race. However, although I’d love it as much
as the next man, I just can’t see it happening. The record of 11yos at the
festival is well documented (in our Cheltenham ground rules feature) and this
is surely one too many for Hurricane Fly.
I’m not
saying that his runs around Leopardstown this winter weren’t classy
performances – they were, but Leopardstown is Hurricane Fly’s second home and
he was always going to be tough to beat there. Barring an unprecedented colossal
storm over Gloucestershire tonight resulting in a notable change in the
official going description, Hurricane Fly is hard to back.
Last year’s
Champion Hurdle winner went on to beat the Fly again at Punchestown before
losing to him three times this winter. They were, however, all creditable
displays (he blundered the last on his last appearance but other than that
would have finished 2nd) and I can see him doing well here today. He
liked Cheltenham and there were very few chinks to be found in his armour last
year when winning this; underrated immediately due to the lack of luck which
befell The New One, it wouldn’t be a shock to see him repeat the feat a year
later.
However, he
had the benefit of having Barry Geraghty on his back last year when AP McCoy
chose to ride My Tent Or Yours. Geraghty is the master of races over this trip
at Cheltenham and guided Jezki to a fantastic win. This year, however, AP McCoy
will be riding Jezki. Jezki’s record with McCoy on board is 3 wins and 2 places
from 7 starts. His record with Geraghty is 5 wins from 5 starts. I would be
much more comfortable in backing him to retain his Champion Hurdle crown was
Geraghty taking the reins again today.
Jezki won last year but doesn't have the benefit of Barry Geraghty this year |
Not only
will McCoy’s presence be a possible disadvantage to Jezki (that statement may
be considered blasphemy at a time when the racing world are worshipping AP!)
but it will certainly effect the markets, with the racing public wanting
nothing more than to see their beloved McCoy kick off the festival with a win
in the Champion Hurdle. As a result, Jezki’s price is 4/1 and shortening.
Jezki being
such a significant steamer means that those behind him in the market will drift
– most notably The New One. The aforementioned lack of luck in last year’s race
was suffered by the Twiston-Davies charge as the up-and-coming Our Conor
tragically fell in this race last year, badly hampering The New One who went on
to recover in style, tearing up the hill in pursuit of Jezki and My Tent Or
Yours to finish 3rd. He immediately became the favourite for this
year’s race and went on to win at Aintree the following month, but only in a
photo finish and not in the style of a 4/9 favourite, or an ante post Champion
Hurdle favourite for that matter.
The New One was very unlucky not to win this race last year |
A listed
win at Kempton and a class 2 win at Haydock this season were followed by two
grade 2 successes. He was wholly unimpressive in the latter, his jumping dodgy
throughout to say the least. The heavy ground and terrible conditions may
explain in some part why he didn’t run well, but backers today will have to
hope that in the two months off the track this problem has been solved.
However, convincing or not, this brought his record to 5 wins from 5 starts
since his eye catching Champion Hurdle run last year.
The depth
of the field probably doesn’t compare to last year’s – Our Conor and My Tent Or
Yours aren’t present, and although Faugheen is a massive addition, it does
leave us with four main contenders as opposed to last year’s five.
Of the
others, few seem to be in with a real chance of winning. The field is made up
by Arctic Fire, Vaniteux, Kitten Rock and Bertimont.
Arctic Fire
chased home Hurricane Fly (and actually finished ahead of Jezki) in the Irish
Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown last time out, and has a very likeable
consistency having finished up in the top 3 on all of his last 7 starts. He
wasn’t far behind Jezki and the Fly in the Ryanair Hurdle at Leopardstown at
Christmas either and was 3rd in another Grade 1 earlier on this
season. He seems to like bigger fields and right-handed tracks but it’s still
understandable that those hunting for value see him as a viable each-way
option.
Vaniteux could well be the pick of the outsiders |
Vaniteux
was 3rd in last year’s Supreme Novices Hurdle, a race in which Nicky
Henderson has run some good horses in the past. He has been runner-up in his
three subsequent starts this season, most notably having 4 lengths to find with
The New One in the International Hurdle at Cheltenham in December. To me, he’s
one of the more interesting each-way chances for those looking for value in a
race. There are three places to be filled and he could well be in the mix for
one of them, with a good record under these conditions.
Kitten Rock
is also considered an outsider despite the fact that he chases his fifth win in
a row in this race. He has left more to be desired in Grade 1 company in the past,
however, and although he has built up some consistency and momentum, this is a
different class to anything he has beaten in the past.
The fact
that Bertimont is 200/1 with some firms shows the competitive nature of the
race – he has never run in a grade 1 but placed in two of his four starts in
grade 2 company. He was a few lengths behind a well below-par The New One at
Haydock last time out and he would need more than one horse to underperform
today to be in with a real shout.
So, three
horses at the top of the market are of the most interest unless we get lots of
rain in which case the Fly will come into the equation. Jezki will probably end
up representing no value due to the punters lumping on to AP, while there are
too many question marks over Faugheen to back him at evens. This leaves us with
The New One, quickly drifting and bidding to make up for last year’s
misfortune.
Having made
the frame in all but one of his starts to date (the only disappointment in this
regard was in the Champion Bumper back in 2012), the McCoy factor making him an
each-way price means value for the punter.
If Faugheen
is to disappoint, The New One should be primed and ready to take advantage. If
not, it’s still hard to see him finish outside the top 3 (hoping that no horses
are withdrawn in the next 18 hours and that there will be three each-way
places). I’ll be surprised to see The New One finish outside the top three
(which will mean money back for us) and it would be no surprise to see him come
out on top (in which case we’d make a tidy profit).
For those
looking for a big-priced bet, Vaniteux is of more appeal to me than Arctic
Fire, but it’s The New One that I’ll be backing today with the each-way
security making him look like a very strong bet.
SELECTION: THE NEW ONE E/W 9/2
No comments:
Post a Comment