The day has arrived! We’ve looked into the Grade 1’s in
great detail and some of the races in even greater detail on the blog and we’ve
added links under the races which you can see below. For convenience, though,
we’ve put it all here so that it’s on one page. We’re suggesting treading
softly on the handicaps with smaller stakes, while the Grade 1’s which have
been carefully analysed over long periods of time can be treated more
seriously.
Most importantly, sit back, relax and enjoy the excitement,
the exhilaration, the atmosphere, the spectacle that is Cheltenham. Only bet
what you can afford to lose and the very best of luck.
1.30 – SkyBet Supreme Novices Hurdle – Grade 1 – 2m½f
Douvan dominates the betting for this year’s Supreme but it
can often be a tough race for favourites and I’d be keen to find an alternative
with plenty of unexposed horses in the field. Second favourite L’Ami Serge is
prone to jumping issues and isn’t an each-way price while Jollyallan is still
very green and so we’ll look towards the outsiders.
Some Plan and Sizing John both run from big prices but it’s
Seedling who seems very overpriced with likeable consistency of late albeit in
races of a lower class. He runs well fresh and has a course win unlike any of
his competitors today. He had 3 wins from 3 starts since joining William
Greatrex’s yard and he could keep up this consistency in what is generally a
tough betting race.
SELECTION: SEEDLING
E/W 25/1
2.05 – Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy – Grade 1 – 2m
Un De Sceaux is one of the day’s most popular favourites and
it’s very possible that he’ll have too much class for today’s field. However,
he fell on his first start over fences, he’s temperament will be a worry at
Cheltenham and front-runners have a bad record in the Arkle. We’re looking for
an each-way and Vibrato Valtat is the main opposition to Un De Sceaux after impressing
last time out.
At longer odds, Court Minstrel also looks to be in with a
lively each-way chance despite his bad run last time out. He should improve
from this performance due to better ground, a longer break, a left-handed track
and the fact that he tends to peak at the end of the season.
SELECTION: VIBRATO
VALTAT E/W 6/1
LONGSHOT OF THE DAY:
COURT MINSTREL E/W 33/1
2.40 - Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase – Grade 3 – 3m 1f
There are a few interesting trends which can be put to use
in a lot of Cheltenham’s handicaps and this race is no different. My shortlist
comes down to Mendip Express, Gevrey Chambertin and Gallant Oscar.
Gallant Oscar had his last start in the Thyestes Chase on
heavy ground at Gowran last time out. The winner that day was deemed good
enough to run in the Gold Cup on Friday and so there’s nothing wrong with the
form, but Gallant Oscar did finish almost 30 lengths behind the winner. He was
by no means disgraced, but all of his form is on soft ground and he’s fairly
unexposed on this sort of surface other than one loss on good to yielding.
Gevrey Chambertin is still a novice and hadn’t taken very
well to fences prior to the introduction of blinkers in a class 3 at Newbury
last time out before Christmas when he made all and ran well to win. It’s going
to be tougher for him to win this from the front and he has form of 9P9 at
Cheltenham in the past so he’s fairly opposable if we find a better option.
The better option in my opinion is Mendip Express, carrying
more weight than the average winner of this race but probably still relatively
well handicapped. He was 2nd in the Becher Chase over the National
fences at Aintree before Christmas and subsequently finished 2nd in
a class 3 novices hurdle since then in his final prep run for this. He has won
at the track in the past and could easily run a big race today at a nice price
of 16/1.
SELECTION: MENDIP
EXPRESS E/W 16/1
3.20 – StanJames Champion Hurdle – Grade 1 – 2m½f
Faugheen the Machine heads the betting and – no prizes for
guessing – we’re not backing him. There are question marks over Faugheen’s
hurdling and much bigger question marks over what he has beaten in the past. Although
he could show himself to be spectacular tomorrow, there’s a better betting
opportunity in the race.
Last year’s winner Jezki was gifted a lovely ride from Barry
Geraghty but has McCoy on board this year with whom he has a much less desirable
record. The market support for McCoy has led to The New One, very unlucky not
to win this last year, being available at an each-way price of 9/2. Never
outside the places over hurdles, it’s amazing to see him available at an
each-way price today and we’ll be backing him in confidence that he can either
take advantage if Faugheen turns out to be less talented than it seems or chase
him home within the places if the machine lives up to his nickname.
SELECTION: THE NEW
ONE E/W 9/2
4.00 – OLBG Mare’s Hurdle – Grade 1 – 2m 4f
Annie Power is the class horse in this race and although
there have been some question marks due to her being injured early on this
season, she has reportedly been working very well at home and is a better horse
than those which face her today.
8/11 is a good price for a horse which is in such a
different league to her opposition and she’s the bet here.
SELECTION: ANNIE
POWER 8/11
4.40 – Toby Balding National Hunt Chase (Listed Amateur Riders Novices
Chase) – 4m
Again, if we look at some of the key trends (7-8 years old,
top 2 last time out, 4-8 runs since July, top 2 in a chase over 3m+, 3-9 starts
in chases, had their debut in a bumper, a hurdle or a point to point) two
runners stand out – one of the more fancied contenders and one rank outsider.
Doing Fine won on his first start over fences before two bad
runs in November and December. The introduction of cheekpieces seemed to make
all the difference last time out, however, as he finished 2nd by
just a neck at Warwick last month. He may prefer softer ground than this
however.
Ballyculla had some decent form over hurdles but has failed
to impress as much over fences, with form of 3242 in class 3 handicap hurdles
to date. This will be a bigger ask but his 2nd last time out at
Exeter a couple of weeks ago was one of the best runs of his career and if he
improves from that then he’ll have place claims. Back on soft ground with a
decent place at the track in the past, 66/1 is too big a price.
SELECTION: BALLYCULLA
E/W 66/1
5.15 - CHAPS Restaurants
Barbados Novices Handicap Chase – Listed – 2m 4½f
Generous Ransom is drifting despite the fact that he idled
when winning here on New Year’s Day so realistically ran very well last time
out over course and (almost) distance. Considering this last start, 11-6 is
probably a low weight for him. Currently 10/1, he looks to be well in with an
each-way shot.
Also worth noting is Horizontal Speed, currently available
at 16/1, who has produced some of his career best performances on his last few
starts and looks to represent value even if he will need to improve more in
order to win this. His form this season reads 2321 (the 3rd having
been a disappointing 3rd of 3 in a Grade 2 but the others all
respectable runs).
SELECTION: HORIZONTAL
SPEED E/W 16/1
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