Day 3 - 1:30 JLT Novices Chase Preview & Selection

Apache Stronghold won the Flogas Novices Chase at Leopardstown last time out with Valseur Lido half a length behind him in 2^nd. The soft ground that day should in theory have suited the Mullins favourite come than Noel Meade’s charge and so that form looks fairly solid.

Apache Stronghold beat Valseur Lido at Leopardstown last month

Another 8 lengths behind Valseur Lido was The Tullow Tank, disappointingly unplaced in three Grade 1 starts since winning easily on his chasing debut in November. He hasn’t shown the same promise since taking to fences as he did over hurdles last season and it’s hard to envisage him reversing the form with Valseur Lido, who has finished ahead of him twice this season, and Apache Stronghold, who has beaten him three times.

The other Irish raider in the field is favourite Vautour, who has been campaigned over a shorter trip since taking to fences and so hasn’t encountered any of these over these obstacles yet. Valseur Lido and Splash Of Ginge were a long way behind him in last year’s Supreme, however, and he was also too good for The Tullow Tank and Apache Stronghold over hurdles last season. The latter has improved for going chasing and will hope to reverse the Punchestown form with Vautour from last season – The Tullow Tank looks unlikely to do so however.

Vautour won last year's Supreme in style

Vautour himself has made a good chaser in three starts to date – he won easily and jumped well on his chasing debut in Navan in November but was beaten by Clarcam at Leopardstown over Christmas when making a bad mistake which cost him a lot of ground. The impressiveness of his run on faster ground here last year would suggest that he hasn’t been seen to his best over fences with his three starts all having been on soft ground.

Of the Irish form, it would seem that Vautour and Apache Stronghold should be able to come out ahead of Valseur Lido (consistent as he may be) and The Tullow Tank. The English form also has to be reckoned with, however.

Ptit Zig is the leading British hope having won two lower level races over fences before two Grade 2 successes brought his record to 4 from 4. There were some suggestions of jumping issues in the lower level races but any problems which there may have been seemed solved in the Grade 2 successes, when he beat Arkle 3^rd Josses Hill among others. However, he ran against his elders in the Ascot Chase in February and fell at the 9^th. He has claims today should he avoid a similar incident. He does prefer softer ground however and is yet to prove himself as a Grade 1 performer, unplaced in three Grade 1 starts in the past.

Splash Of Ginge has course and distance form but was pulled
up last time out

Splash Of Ginge won a Grade 3 over course and distance on New Year’s Day which may prove to be a significant advantage with Vautour and Ptit Zig the only other course winners in the field. He was pulled up in Grade 1 company last time out but this run was on soft ground – he was last on his other start on soft ground over fences but won the Betfair Hurdle on heavy last year so it’s unclear whether we can put a line through his last start based on the going. He has had plenty of jumping issues since taking to fences having fallen here before Christmas but both of his chase wins were at Cheltenham. A left-handed track such as Cheltenham may be the key to success for this horse.

Ahead of him last time out was Irish Saint who went on to win the Grade 2 Pendil Novices Chase against questionable opposition – Gods Own was a non-runner and whether Melodic Rendezvous is a chaser has to be questioned. The conditions suited him perfectly last time out and he’ll find it tough to repeat that result against better opposition today in my opinion.

The outsiders are Colour Squadron and Tango De Juilley – the former has a lot to find on bare form and although he may seem slightly overpriced, I would have my doubts over whether he’s capable of firing in the spring. Blinkers and a tongue tie being introduces for the first time may make him noteworthy, but I won’t be backing. The former is an unlikely winner today with relatively little in his favour.

It’s clear based on the Leopardstown run that Apache Stronghold and Valseur Lido are fairly close to each other on form alone. However, I would think that Apache Stronghold may be able to keep the advantage in that regard. If we eliminate Valseur Lido (dangerously) we have a shortlist of Apache Stronghold, Splash Of Ginge and Vautour.

The conditions should suit Splash Of Ginge but the form would suggest that he has a lot to find with either Irish contender. Apache Stronghold being available at an each-way price is interesting but he has never been to Cheltenham, while Vautour came alive at last year’s festival. All four JLT winners since the race was first run in 2011 had run over hurdles at the previous year's festival, and I’m backing Vautour to keep up the Willie Mullins winning run here. I’ve been against favourites thus far but 2/1 seems like value to me. I'd advise betting with Paddy Power on this one to get our money back if he finished 2nd or 3rd.

SELECTION: VAUTOUR 2/1