Cheltenham Day 3 Preview & Selections

1.30 – JLT Novices Chase – Grade 1 – 2m 4f

We’re siding with the favourite here – here’s our preview.

SELECTION: VAUTOUR 2/1

2.05 – Pertemps Network Final – Listed Handicap Hurdle – 3m

This is a seriously tough race but we didn’t do too badly in one of the festival’s other tough betting races, the Coral Cup, with a 20/1 place and our other bet finishing just outside the places at 33/1. Nevertheless, this isn’t the same betting platform that a Grade 1 is and can be a betting minefield (10 of the last 11 winners came home at double-figure starting prices). There is one horse which stands out to me, though.

Closing Ceremony is available at odds of 28/1 despite showing very nice consistency (1121) since finishing 10^th on his seasonal debut in November. He fits the Pertemps winning profile perfectly and really looks like he could run a big race. The handicapper has allotted him a weight of 11-5 following a Grade 2 win last month ahead of Milansbar, Seeyouatmidnight and At Fishers Cross. He’s the only horse in the field to have even placed in a Graded contest on their last start, with his form as strong as anything else’s today. He’s relatively unexposed on better ground which is where some people may ask questions of him – a proven performer on soft and heavy, he made the frame on his sole start on good to soft in the past. 28/1 is a massive price today.

SELECTION: CLOSING CEREMONY E/W 28/1

2.40 – Ryanair Chase – Grade 1 – 2m 5f

We’re backing an each-way longshot – here’s our preview.

SELECTION: UXIZANDRE E/W 20/1

3.20 – Ladbrokes World Hurdle – Grade 1 – 3m

It’s a weak renewal of the World Hurdle no matter what way we look at it – Big Bucks is retired, last year’s winner More Of That injured, exciting mare Annie Power ran in the Mares Hurdle on Tuesday. Zarkandar was 4^th last year and has some strong form to his name. He hasn’t won a race in almost two years though and hasn’t been seen since being beaten by Reve De Sivola in the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot before Christmas. I’d be very keen to take him on.

Saphir Du Rheu is strong opposition with a Grade 2 win over course and distance in the Cleeve Hurdle on Trials Day. He has only completed two of his four starts this season, though, unseating at Newbury in November and falling at Kempton on Boxing Day.

Reve De Sivola and Dedigout’s prices are both very big. The former beat the favourite at Ascot before Christmas and was only a neck behind Saphir Du Rheu in the aforementioned Cleeve Hurdle – this is his 3^rd attempt at the World Hurdle but on form he should be a lot closer than 25/1 would suggest.

Dedigout is available at the same price despite having won Grade 2’s on his last two starts in Ireland. He has to reverse form with four of today’s runners from a Grade 1 over Christmas at Leopardstown, though, not an easy task on his first run in the UK.

Lieutenant Colonel is also a quickly improving horse but I doubt that Cheltenham’s his track, he doesn’t have a great record after a break and he doesn’t tend to run well at the end of the season so again it’s worth looking elsewhere.

At Fishers Cross and Monksland are two each-way shots which stand out. The former came 3^rd in this race last year and has a very strong record at Cheltenham. His form so far this season has been very disappointing but there’s every chance that he could come alive at Cheltenham, while he should benefit from having run recently and likes a bigger field than he has run in so far this season. 28/1 is too big.

Monksland is a seriously consistent performer who always puts in a decent run – just the sort of horse you’d love to back at an each-way price. He hadn’t been seen for two years when he ran at Leopardstown over Christmas to finish 3^rd in a Grade 1 event. He followed up by losing by a short head in a Grade 2 at Gowran in January. Everything about this race should suit and he has done everything right since his return to action.

SELECTION: MONKSLAND E/W 14/1

LONGSHOT BET OF THE DAY: AT FISHERS CROSS E/W 28/1

4.00 – Byrne Group Plate – Grade 3 – 2m 5f

It’s another 24-runner minefield and probably a worse one that the Pertemps. To pick a winner in a race like this is in partly a massive achievement which should be recognised (well done to anybody who manages it throughout the week) but also partly luck. Kings Lad came home behind, among others, Tuesday’s second-favourite in the Arkle, Vibrato Valtat last time out and although he was well held at that level, his previous class 3 wins suggest that he could put in a good run today. However, the one which catches my eye is Filbert at 33/1.

Filbert’s win at Wincanton in January was a decent performance from a horse who was previously winless in his last five starts (he had maintained a certain level of consistency with form 41453531 since the beginning of last season). The form from that Wincanton win is working out very nicely though. Tango De Juilley (2^nd) went on to win a class 3 at Huntingdon last month and runs in the opener today. 4^th Rebel Rebellion won a class 2 next time out and came 2^nd in another class 2 after that. Big Fella Thanks, 6^th at Wincanton, placed in a Grade 3 on his next start and then won a low-level event.

With all three horses to have run since Wincanton having been in some way successful, it would be no surprise to see Filbert continue the trend . The Wincanton win coincided with the introduction of cheekpieces which he dons again today. A big price.

SELECTION: FILBERT E/W 33/1