Friday, 30 January 2015

Scilly Isles Novices Chase Individual Horse Profiles & Notes

An interesting clash at Sandown today sees some RSA,  JLT and possibly Arkle contenders go head to head over 2m 4½f to contest the Scilly Isles Novices Chase. We’ve used our unique individual horse profiles and notes to attempt to get an edge on this field of five. However, it must be noted that we’ve only included runs in the UK and Ireland in this data. This mostly effects Gitane Du Berlais, who had numerous starts in France prior to and following her UK debut in November.

Champagne West

Overall record: 10 runs – 5 wins – 3 places
  • Form gets better as ground gets softer; 4-3-1 on soft or worse, 6-2-2 on good to soft or better.
  • Best record is over roughly this distance (5-3-2 over 2m 3f – 2m 5f, compared to 4-2-0 over 2m 5½f or further).
  • Jockeys: Richard Johnson 7-4-1, TJ O’Brien 3-1-2
  • Unplaced in sole previous Grade 1 start, but ran in one Grade 2 and finished 2nd of 7.
  • Seems to perform better in smaller fields  - 7-4-2 with form of 2211112 in fields of 11 or less, 3-1-0 with form of 914 in fields of 12 or more.
  • 6-4-2 after a  break of between 16 and 30 days, 4-1-1 after a break of 31 days or more, so it seems that he’s better having had a recent run.
  • Probably peaks in December and January, with a record of 5-4-1 and form of 11112 in those months, and a record of 5-1-2 and form of 29241 in other months (namely November and March).
So, we would have hoped for softer ground than the current good to soft. The trip today should suit and Richard Johnson taking the reins is an advantage. Today's field is suitably small, and he ran 30 days ago which just about meets our criteria. Finally, we noted that he seems to peak in December and January, and so he just about fits into his peak window today.


Grumeti

Overall record: 26 runs – 9 wins – 7 places (11 of these runs, 3 of these wins and 5 of these places were on the flat)
  • 2-1-1 at Sandown, in 1m 2f Class 4 and 5 handicaps on the flat.
  • Slightly better record on better ground (18-7-6 on good to soft or better means 39% win and 72% win/place records, compared to 8-2-3 on soft or worse which is 25% win and 63% win/place).
  • Only ever ran over 2m 4f once, finishing 5th of 7. Closest to this was 2m 1½f, so he isn’t proven over the trip.
  • Jockeys: Jimmy Fortune 2-1-1, Wayne Hutchinson 10-4-1, Ryan Moore 1-0-1, Jamie Spencer 4-2-1, Robert Thornton 5-2-1, Hayley Turner 4-0-2
  • Form is fairly evenly spread across the National Hunt season, but his best record is in January (3-2-0). The summer months of May, June and July have a record of 7-4-3.
  • Seems to have a slight preference for right-handed tracks (11-4-5, 31323111253 compared to 12-5-2, F1314385141 on left-handed tracks). (Italics form is on the flat).
As long as the rain holds off, the ground should suit today, but the trip is a question and Wayne Hutchinson being on board is not necessarily an advantage based on the figures above. January is a strong month for him, which is good for us, while a preference for right-handed tracks will also be beneficial today.


Irish Saint

Overall record: 12 runs – 5 wins – 3 places
  • 2-1-0 at Sandown, win was in a 2m Class 2 novices chase, 3rd of 4 in a Grade 1 2m novices chase.
  • Good record on heavy ground (4-2-2, 1213) but unplaced in 2 starts on soft. Record of 6-3-1 on good to soft and better.
  • Jockeys: Noel Fehily 2-1-1, Daryl Jacob 1-0-0, Nock Scholfield 2-1-0, Tom Scudamore 1-0-0, Sam Twiston-Davies 2-1-0, Ruby Walsh 4-2-2
  • 3-0-1 in Grade 1 races, much better record of 3-2-1 in Grade 2’s.
  • 7-3-2 after 30 or less days off the track, 4-1-1 after 31-365 days off, 1-1-0 after more than a year off the track.
  • Seems to peak in January and February (4-2-2), form earlier on in the season is 6-3-0 and later is 2-0-1.
  • Winless from 7 starts on left-handed tracks (5-0-3), 7-5-0 on right-handed tracks.
He's unlikley to get his preferred heavy ground today, and Sam Twiston-Davies is not one of the jockeys we would have hoped to have on board Irish Saint. We also suggested he may be more suited to running in Grade 2 races, and that it should be within 30 days of his last run (he last ran 42 days ago). The positives are a good record in January and a very strong record on right-handed tracks.


Splash Of Ginge

Overall record: 17 runs – 4 wins – 3 places
  • Best form comes on good to soft ground (5-2-1 compared to 4-0-1 on good ground and 8-2-1 on soft or worse).
  • 9-2-3 over 2m 4f – 2m 5f, 8-2-0 over a shorter trip. 2-0-0 over today’s trip of 2m 4½f, however.
  • Jockeys: Jamie Bargary 1-1-0, Ryan Hatch 4-1-0, Sam Twiston-Davies 12-2-3
  • 4-0-2 in Grade 1 or 2 races, 3-2-0 in Grade 3’s.
  • Seems to prefer bigger fields – 10-2-1 in fields of 11 or less runners, 7-2-2 in fields of 12 or more runners.
  • All of his wins and places came after a break of 16-60 days (12-4-3), with a record of 1-0-0 after a break of 15 or less days and 4-0-0 after a break of 61 or more days.
  • Seems to have a preference for left-handed tracks, but has only had 4 starts on right-handed tracks (13-4-3 compared to 4-0-0).
Splash Of Ginge runs today on his preferred good to soft ground, over his preferred trip. However, Ryan Hatch has enjoyed little success on him in the past and all of his success has come at a lower level than this. He has run in the past 16-60 days (his last run was 30 days ago) but his preference for left-handed tracks isn't good.


Gitane Du Berlais

Overall record: 4 runs – 3 wins – 1 place (again to stress than this is only his UK/Ireland record)
  • Might be better on softer ground – sole loss came on yielding to soft, with wins coming on soft and soft to heavy.
  • Sole loss came over 2m, with a good record over further (up to 2m 3½f).
  • Jockeys: Danny Mullins 1-1-0, Paul Townend 2-2-0, Ruby Walsh 1-0-1
We're not paying too much attention to the analysis of Gitane Du Berlais as it doesn't include his French form.

The Verdict:

CHAMPAGNE WEST 5/2




Sunday, 25 January 2015

Irish Champion Hurdle Preview

The talented Jezki meets the mighty Hurricane Fly. It's the seventh clash of these rivals, each one seeming more significant than the last. Hurricane Fly today seeks to win his fifth Irish Champion Hurdle in a row; both are due to travel to Cheltenham in March where Jezki will aim to defend his Champion Hurdle crown and Hurricane Fly to regain his from his days as champion in 2011 and 2013.

Looking ahead to Cheltenham at this stage, neither of them seem the most likely winner at a glance. Willie Mullins' unbeaten Faugheen is the overwhelming favourite after putting in magnificent displays since winning at the festival last year. The New One is also rated more highly than either of today's runners, after suffering from a lack of luck when hampered in last year's race and recovering in wonderful style.

Of today's challengers, however, Jezki certainly seems the most likely winner come March. Beaten by Hurricane Fly during the winter last year, he showed his talent in beating his elder when the festival came. He's being trained to peak in the spring again, there's no doubt about that, and peak he will when Cheltenham and Punchestown come around.

Hurricane Fly, on the other hand, has never been quite the horse at Cheltenham that we see in Ireland. Perhaps he doesn't respond well to travelling, maybe he doesn't like the course, who knows? But as we watch Hurricane Fly throughout the year at his beloved Leopardstown, he will almost certainly be running to a slightly higher standard than he will be come March when a trip to Gloucestershire beckons.

With this in mind and the cut in the ground to benefit him today, I'll be backing Hurricane Fly to make it five Irish Champion Hurdles in a row, to make it 10 wins from 10 runs at his second home that is Leopardstown - but my viewpoint at the moment has to be that come March, the roles of these two rivals will be reversed.

Saturday, 24 January 2015

Hurricane Fly vs Jezki - The Story So Far

This year’s Irish Champion Hurdle, like last year’s, sees the clash of Hurricane Fly and Jezki, two Champion Hurdlers who have met six times to date. With a record of 9 wins from 9 starts at Leopardstown, Hurricane Fly holds favouritism for today’s contest, having beaten Jezki in both clashes this season despite being beaten by Jessica Harrington’s 7-year-old at both the Cheltenham and Punchestown festivals at the end of last season.

Hurricane Fly won the Champion Hurdle in Cheltenham in
both 2011 and 2013
Hurricane Fly has, since 2008, been a superstar of the Irish National Hunt racing scene, a sensation from the start. He won eight of his first nine starts in Ireland before travelling to Cheltenham for the first time in 2011 to win the Champion Hurdle. Following this, he returned across the Irish Sea to Punchestown to win the Champion Hurdle there, and was campaigned the following season to win the Irish, Cheltenham and Punchestown Champion Hurdles – successful in both of the Irish races but beaten into 3rd at Cheltenham.

He had a busier season in 2012/13, beginning by winning the Morgiana Hurdle at Punchestown, followed by the Grade 1 Hurdle at Leopardstown’s Christmas meeting, then the Irish, Cheltenham and Punchestown Champion Hurdles - anything the great Fly touched turned to gold.

Mullins followed the same plan the following year with his sensational Champion Hurdler. He began by winning the Morgiana Hurdle, easing past minimal opposition. Then, he moved on to what was by now known as the Ryanair Hurdle. This was where he clashed with Jezki for the first time.

The Fly and Jezki have come head-to-head 6 times to date
At that stage, Jezki had finished 3rd in the previous season’s Supreme and followed up with a win at the Punchestown Festival, before winning on both of his starts prior to meeting with Hurricane Fly. Considered the main opposition to Mullins’ charge (along with Our Conor), Jezki ran a respectable race but finished 2 ½ lengths behind Hurricane Fly.

This was their first meeting, but it was to be less than a month before they would run together again, in last year’s renewal of this race. This time, Jezki’s finishing position of 4th of 4 doesn’t do his respectable run justice, but Hurricane Fly relished the cut in the ground and stayed on well to assert his dominance over his emerging challenger.

Jezki took the Champion Hurdle crown in 2014
However, it was when they reached the most important contest that their roles reversed – the Champion Hurdle on the first day of the Cheltenham Festival saw Hurricane Fly just scraping favouritism from The New One, My Tent Or Yours and Our Conor, another Irish challenger possibly considered at the time to be more of a threat to the Fly than Jezki. It was Barry Geraghty’s mount, though, that put in a perfect run to gain the title of Champion Hurdler, with Hurricane Fly down the field in 4th place, 5 lengths behind the winner.

Jezki’s victory over the Fly was a convincing one, but the punters weren’t yet ready to write off their Grade 1 veteran, with Jezki only the narrow favourite when the two met at the Punchestown festival. His victory this time seemed more comprehensive – there was no doubt after the race that Jessica Harrington had a fantastic young hurdler in her care, had the best hurdler in Ireland in her care; had, in Jezki, a better hurdler than Hurricane Fly.

The media spoke of the end of an era and the retirement of Hurricane Fly; Mullins had other ideas. Despite the inevitability of Jezki’s presence in the races which Hurricane Fly had grown accustomed to dominating on an annual basis, connections chose to send him on the same path again, and in a fantastic comeback, he showed that two defeats at the hands of Jezki at the end of last season did not signal the end for Hurricane Fly.

It's Hurricane Fly that has come out on top so far this season
Despite Jezki being odds-on favourite for this year’s Morgiana Hurdle, he finished 2 lengths behind his rival in 2nd place. Hurricane Fly was not heading for retirement, he was here to stay and had not yet grown tired of winning. By the time the Christmas Festival came around, Hurricane Fly was the favourite to beat Jezki – a cut in the ground at Leopardstown meant that Hurricane Fly would love the race, and love it he did, beating Jezki yet again.

Jezki’s supporters for today will have been heartened by this performance, however. In his three previous defeats at the hands of Hurricane Fly, Jezki had never finished this close to him. Today is the seventh clash of these two rivals. Hurricane Fly’s dominance so far this season is not feared when it comes to Cheltenham – Jezki’s Champion Hurdle credentials are valued at 11/2 at the longest, a lot shorter than Hurricane Fly’s at 14/1, yet the Fly’s dominance thus far this season must be taken into consideration. Will it continue, or will the roles reverse yet again, back to the way things were at last season’s climax? 

Only time will tell.

Irish Arkle Individual Horse Profiles & Notes

Top class racing at Leopardstown today, with small but talented fields in both of the Grade 1 contests – just three horses, all of them very real Arkle Trophy contenders go to post in the Irish Arkle. By creating profiles for each of the horses based on their career runs to date, we can determine whether the conditions tomorrow will suit them…

Gilgamboa

  • Career Record: 7 runs – 5 wins – 1 place
  • 1 win from 1 run at Leopardstown (in the Grade 2 2m Boylesports.com Hurdle in January 2014)
  • 5-5-0 on yielding to soft or worse – 2-0-1 on good to soft or better, so the softer the ground, the better - Soft
  • Jockeys: Niall Madden 1-1-0, AP McCoy 1-0-0, Mark Walsh 5-4-1AP McCoy
  • The one occasion on which he was unplaced was on his sole Grade 1 start. – Grade 1
  • 3-3-0 in fields of 7 or less3 runners
  • Won on both his starts within 30 days of his last run, both of his losses came between 31 and 60 days of his last start. – 30 days since his last run
  • Losses came on tracks classed as undulating and very undulating, with a record of 2-2-0 on tracks with slight undulations and flat tracks. – Flat track

Gilgamboa has taken fantastically to fences
Gilgamboa finished off a strong season novice hurdling last year slightly disappointingly, finishing 13th in the Supreme Novices at Cheltenham. Following this, the decision was made to go chasing, and he has taken to fences fantastically, with a win in a Beginners Chase in November followed by an impressive victory in a Grade 2 at Limerick on St Stephens Day. His preference for soft ground is a positive, McCoy’s lack of success on him in the past is not necessarily a worry considering that it was in the toughest start of his career. His success in small fields after a short break and good record on flat tracks are encouraging factors.

Un De Sceaux

  • Career Record: 7 runs – 6 wins – 0 places
  • Never ran at Leopardstown
  • Only loss was on soft ground, but 100% records on soft to heavy and heavy mean that a fall on soft ground is not a worry. - Soft
  • 6-6-0 over 2m, loss came over 2m 2mf – 2m 1f
  • Jockeys: Ruby Walsh 7-6-0Ruby Walsh
  • Loss came in a larger field (16 runners) – 3 runners
  • Loss came after 285 days off the track – does he tend to have cobwebs to shake off?36 days since his last run
  • Only one run to date on left-handed tracks (a win) – Left-handed

Un De Sceaux was very impressive on his second chasing start
Unbeaten over hurdles last year, his season climaxed with a Grade 3 win in Auteil (his two starts in bumpers before arriving in Mullins’ yard and this start in Auteil were not included in the statistics above). His chasing career got off to a shaky start, when he fell three out in a beginner’s chase after drawing clear after the fourth fence. He made up for it when winning with ease at Fairyhouse just before Christmas, earning favouritism for the Arkle Trophy at the Cheltenham festival. The facts that we probably want him to run in a smaller field and after a short break are both positives.

Clarcam

  • Career Record: 13 runs – 4 wins – 7 places
  • 2-1-1 at Leopardstown (win came in the Grade 1 RacingPost Novices Chase on St Stephens Day, and he was 2nd in a Grade 2 Juvenile Hurdle at the same fixture in 2013).
  • Record is slightly better on softer ground (5-2-3 on yielding to soft or worse, 8-2-4 on good to yielding or better). - Soft
  • Jockeys: Bryan Cooper 4-2-1, Noel Fehily 1-0-0, A E Lynch 1-0-1, Jason Maguire 1-0-1, Davy Russell 5-1-4, Kevin Sexton 1-1-0 Bryan Cooper
  • Never unplaced in Grade 1 or 2 races (2-1-1 in Grade 1’s, 1-0-1 in Grade 2’s). – Grade 1
  • Best record is in smaller fields; 4-3-1 in fields of 7 or less compared to 9-1-6 in fields of 8 or more – 3 runners
  • 2-2-0 after 15 or less days off the track, 9-1-6 after 16-60 days off and 2-1-1 after 121+ days off; so having had a very recent run or being fresh both seem to be of advantage to him – 30 days since his last run
  • Never ran in January but only ever unplaced at the end of the season; 10-4-6 from September to February and 3-0-1 in March and April – January

Clarcam has made good progress in his three chasing starts to date, and looks to be progressing into a smart chaser having beaten Vautour on his last start on St Stephens Day in the RacingPost Novices Chase. Looking a decent type on that day on very tough ground, he does hold chances in this today despite it being an extremely competitive contest. Almost all of his profile fits today’s race.


Friday, 23 January 2015

BetBright Cup Chase Runner-By-Runner Guide

It's trials day at Cheltenham and the BetBright Cup Chase sees 6 horses go to post...

Dynaste - David Pipe - Tom Scudamore


Dynaste won the Ryanair last year and has Gr1 form of 232 since
Dynaste loves Prestbury Park, with 2 wins and 6 places from 6 starts at Cheltenham (form of 228121 at the track). His last victory came here in the Ryanair Chase at last year’s festival, when he beat Hidden Cyclone by about 2 ½ lengths to win under Tom Scudamore, but his three subsequent Grade 1 starts have all seen him come up short to the same horse – ante-post Gold Cup favourite Silviniaco Conti, behind whom he was 2nd in the Betfred Bowl at Aintree last April, 3rd in the Betfair Chase in November and 2nd in the King George on Boxing Day.

 It had been suggested by many that Dynaste is not a true top-class horse over 3m and therefore not a Gold Cup contender, but a win here would surely force connections to rethink their intentions of taking the easier route of returning to the Ryanair Chase.

I would tend to disagree with the theory that Dynaste isn’t a top class horse over a longer trip, with his record of 3 wins and 5 places from 11 runs over 3m or further speaking for itself. Regardless of whether he turns out to be a Gold Cup contender, he has put in strong displays against the best staying chasers around and this race should be well within his grasp were he to perform to his ability today.

Many Clouds - Oliver Sherwood - Leighton Aspell


Many Clouds won the Hennessy and the form is working out well
Many Clouds has been in flying form this season, following up a listed win at the beginning of November with a win in the Hennessy at Newbury in the same month. He hasn’t been seen since, but the Hennessy form is certainly working out well with Djakadam, 8th that day, winning the Thyestes Chase at Gowran during the week. 

Of the 9 horses to finish the race, 4 have run again, with 2 of them winning and 2 of them placing – form of 2411. The cut in the ground will suit Many Clouds perfectly, having won 5 of his 8 starts on soft ground and placed on another 2 occasions.

Smad Place - Alan King - Wayne Hutchinson


Smad Place bids to reverse the Hennessy form with Many Clouds
Smad Place also ran in the Hennessy, finishing 5th, and this was his first and only racecourse appearance so far this season. There were questions following the race as to whether Alan King should have run him in the Hennessy on his seasonal debut, and so he will no doubt be expected to improve with a run under his belt on his return to his beloved Cheltenham, where he has made the frame in three of his four starts to date (3rd in two World Hurdles and 2nd in last year’s RSA). It might not be a great surprise to see him reverse the form with Many Clouds considering he carries 8lb less than his Hennessy rival.

The Giant Bolster - David Bridgewater - Mr TJ Cannon


The Giant Bolster is famous for loving it here at Cheltenham
Last year’s winner The Giant Bolster loves Cheltenham, with all of his last 3 wins having been achieved here. Famous for placing in both the 2012 and 2014 Gold Cups, David Bridgewater’s horse was disappointing in his seasonal debut in the Charlie Hall Chase, finishing last. 

He showed some improvement when 5th in the Betfair Chase but still couldn’t compete with today’s favourite Dynaste on that occasion. You can really never tell what you’re going to get from this horse, but if he puts in one of his big Cheltenham runs, he could be in the picture coming up the hill.

Black Thunder - Paul Nicholls - Mr Sam Twiston-Davies


Black Thunder is a true stayer who will relish the tough conditions present tomorrow at Cheltenham, but not necessarily the track, having fallen on both of his starts to date at Prestbury Park. However, his progression over the season to date has been well documented, and if said progression continues as it has done so far, he could play a big part in this race, especially if his competitors are struggling to stay up the gruelling Cheltenham hill in testing conditions which Black Thunder will simply love.

Theatre Guide - Colin Tizzard - Daryl Jacob


Theatre Guide is the outsider of the group, and he has never tasted any success in terms of wins or places from four attempts in Group 2 or 1 races. He enjoys soft ground and very undulating tracks, but might have a slight preference for right-handed tracks and doesn’t look quite up to this standard.

SELECTION: DYNASTE 5/2

Saturday, 10 January 2015

10th January Post-Racing Notes

January can sometimes be a quiet month, and today's racing wasn't the best we've ever seen, but there's plenty to take from it going forward. At Warwick, the going was soft and it was tough, grueling conditions where stamina came to the fore...

Warwick

In the first at Warwick, 5/2 favourite Avel Vor ran a good race throughout before challenging at the third last hurdle and and taking the lead. He was five lengths clear when he blundered the second last and then slowed a lot, allowing eventual winner Vesuvhill to come back on terms with him. It was Vesuvhill who had the momentum and jumped the last slightly better before finding more and pulling 2 lengths clear of Avel Vor. Many of those who backed Avel Vor (on paper better suited to the ground than the eventual winner) will place the blame on Richard Johnson for arguably bringing him to the front way too soon on such testing ground. Vesuvhill possibly got an easier ride in behind Avel Vor, but he showed a good attitude to win.

Embedded image permalink
Sego Success continues to progress
Second it was the Edward Courage Cup, and this race had a similar theme to the first; the eventual runner-up, Keel Haul with James Davies on board, also hit the front early (four out) and went three lengths clear by the second last, but didn't have as much in the tank as the winner, Upepito, who just passed him out in a tight finish on the line. Again, Davies probably could have waited longer to make his move rather than expanding more energy early on and giving Upepito an easier route to the finish line in behind him.

Things got a bit more interesting next with the Listed Hampton Novices Chase, where Sego Success continued his progression after impressing when winning his second start over fences at a lower level at Newbury last November. Grand Vision's jumping was often notably good as he led, leaping boldly over the fences with about a foot to spare at times.

Deputy Dan possibly tired on his first outing over a longer trip, jumping well until making a mistake at the fourth last and jumping right thereafter, finding nothing on the run-in.

After making all and jumping fantastically, Grand Vision was a few lengths to clear with 3 furlongs to travel and two fences to jump, when Sego Success managed to get himself back into the picture, taking the lead over the last and finishing very well on the run-in.

Sego Success looks a real stayer and is certainly a candidate for the 4 mile National Hunt Chase at the festival, for which he is third in the market at between 10 and 12/1. In the long term, the aim would be campaign him for a National, and it'll be worth keeping an eye on how he progresses over time. The runner-up might enjoy a small drop in trip, but will be winning soon.

Join The Clan quickened very well to draw clear a long way out in the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle, and it looked like it would be a repeat of the first three races as Closing Ceremony and Vandross closed in on the tiring winner going towards the line - the latter made a mistake at the last, and neither could ultimately have any impression on Join The Clan. It was a great ride by Patrick Cowley to achieve his first winner, shortened to 25/1 for the Pertemps at Cheltenham,

Three Musketeers won well but will skip Cheltenham
Next up was the Grade 2 Neptune Investment Leamington Novices Hurdle, where Shantou Bob was the 10/11 favourite, followed in the market by 6/1 shot Three Musketeers from the yard of Dan Skelton. It was the latter who put in a good performance to win from the game Ballagh, who also ran very well.

The winner jumped well but will be skipping Cheltenham with the focus on going chasing next season. He ran well but had a few issues he needs to sort; seemingly a little bit immature, he tends to hang right and also can jump right, as he did at the second last - he still is green and has a lot to learn but no doubt will and could improve massively. Ballagh ran very well and is definitely one to watch next time out, whether it's at the festival in the Neptune or Albert Bartlett, or before then. Favourite Shantou Bob was under pressure from a long way out and disappointed.

The Grade 3 Betfred Handicap Chase was the feature race at Warwick, run over 3m 5f. Given the tough conditions, it was no surprise that only seven horses managed to finish the race, with 9/2 favourite Return Spring one of the horses pulled up after some dodgy jumping and a poor run. Hawkes Point won very well to put himself into the Grand National frame, with first-time blinkers seeming to make a huge difference. If he was to go to Cheltenham on the way, he would surely be in with a chance in the Festival Handicap Chase.
Hawkes Point put himself in the Grand National frame

Shotgun Paddy (3rd) made a few errors jumping but ran extremely well and never gave up under top weight, proving himself to be a brave warrior, but jumping issues would suggest that he wouldn't be a Grand National horse. He would also have claims in the Festival Handicap Chase if he were to take that route however. Theatrical Star in 2nd also put in a brave effort and challenged late, looking like a real stayer - he'll be given an entry in the Grand National, with Colin Tizzard speculating that his mark should be raised to about 139, and he should get in off that.

Now a look at the action at Kempton:

Kempton


Cocktails At Dawn's jumping cost him yet again
Cocktails At Dawn has shown plenty of potential plenty of times - he has, however, made mistakes on all three of his starts to date as a novice chaser, and today this proved as costly as ever. As he led going over the 9th, Cocktails At Dawn blundered badly and stumbled on landing. This seemed to take a lot out of him, and there were three horses involved in an incredibly tight finish - Cold March led over the last but idled on the run-in, with the win going to what seemed the most unlikely of the three, Lost Legend, who wasn't fluent over the last but stayed on very well to win. The third horse, only a head behind the winner, was Key To The West, who made most of the running but was headed after blundering 3 out and looked well beaten then - he did well to get back into the picture in the closing stages.

Evens favourite Kingscourt Native won the William Hill Novices Hurdle - he won by a convincing margin of 9 lengths and ran very well, but made a bad mistake when hitting the last hurdle, and will definitely need to improve his jumping, whether or not he ends up heading to Cheltenham. I would have suspicions that he'd like the track if he was to go there, but he'll have no success at the festival if he doesn't cut errors like this out of his runs.

Only three ran in the Williamhill.com Chase, but it was interesting nonetheless - Balder Succes was 10/11 favourite, followed in the market by Hunt Ball at 15/8, trying to follow up from a great run at Cheltenham on New Years Day, and Fox Appeal at 6/1.

Hunt Ball and Balder Succes disputed the lead throughout, with the latter jumping more fluently for most of the race, while Fox Appeal stayed on terms. Hunt Ball dropped back quickly after the third last, leaving Fox Appeal to take 2nd but by 10 lengths from Balder Succes, who ran on impressively and jumped well despite looking slightly in doubt over the last.
Balder Success - would it be best to skip Cheltenham?

The winner could run in the Champion Chase, but the Ryanair looks the more likely option, with odds of 16/1 at best for that race. However, it's worth noting that he has failed to place on three previous starts at Cheltenham but was impressive when winning at Aintree last April, and that he seems to have a preference for flat tracks. When you factor in his record of 15 runs, 9 wins and a place in fields of 7 or less (a smaller field is much more likely in the Melling Chase than the Ryanair or Queen Mother), it's easy to see why skipping the festival and going straight to the Melling Chase at the Grand National meeting in Aintree could be a much better option.

The Lanzarote Hurdle is always a popular race and Tea For Two was a very impressive winner by 16 lengths - a fantastic run and a fantastic ride from Lizzie Kelly. Tea For Two had a lot in hand in winning, and the jumping, a long-time worry for this horse, was very encouraging.

After such an impressive display, it's unlikely that we'll be seeing this horse again in handicap company - at the festival, his options are open, with the Supreme, the Albert Bartlett, the Neptune, and even the Coral Cup and the World Hurdle all possibilities for Nick Williams' novice hurdler after this impressive display.

Ardkilly Witness won the next, running a good race, but probably only really winning due to the the jumping errors of Masters Hill, eventual 2nd, who made a bad mistake at the third last and jumped left at the last. Ardkilly Witness just about came out ahead of him due to his better jumping in the closing stages of the contest, but he made two bad mistakes earlier on in the race. Overall, the jumping was bad throughout the race.

With Cheltenham in March in mind, though, it was in Ireland that today's most important race took place...

Douvan Impresses At Punchestown


Douvan impressed at Gowran and followed up effortlessly today
The Moscow Flyer Novices Hurdle was won last year by Vautour, who went on to win the Supreme Novices Hurdle in great style at the Cheltenham festival. This year, Mullins' exciting novice hurdling prospect is Douvan, another Rich Ricci-owned five-year-old who travelled beautifully and jumped perfectly to win his debut at Gowran in November. Since then, he has been prominent in the market for the Supreme Novices Hurdle at the festival, but today was the big day, when Mullins would unleash Douvan on the racecourse and see what he could do. 

Douvan descended on Punchestown to compete in the Moscow Fly Novices Hurdle, as Vautour had done before him, bidding to seal favouritism in the Supreme. His performance left very little be analysed; his jumping was immaculate, he travelled sublimely, it was a joy to watch. Ruby Walsh sat comfortably on board Douvan and barely moved for the duration of the race, as Douvan comfortably cruised to the lead ahead of the final obstacle, and easily outclassed his opponents approaching the line.

Thinking back 12 months, Douvan's performance today was certainly more effortless than that of Vautour in this last year - Vautour was made work for the win by Western Boy approaching the line, while Douvan simply breezed past his rivals. However, assessing the quality of the opposition in a race like this one can be extremely difficult, and we're left with the same problem each year of not knowing what exactly a horse has beaten. 

It should be noted, however, if we're going to compare Douvan's preparation for the festival with that of Vautour, that Vautour ran in, and won, the Grade 1 Deloitte Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown before going to Cheltenham, in which he was the second favourite and had to beat The Tullow Tank - he was certainly faced with tougher tasks before Cheltenham than Douvan would be if he was to go straight to the festival (to the Supreme or the Neptune) without another run, as is suspected.