January can sometimes be a quiet month, and today's racing wasn't the best we've ever seen, but there's plenty to take from it going forward. At Warwick, the going was soft and it was tough, grueling conditions where stamina came to the fore...
Warwick
In the first at Warwick, 5/2 favourite
Avel Vor ran a good race throughout before challenging at the third last hurdle and and taking the lead. He was five lengths clear when he blundered the second last and then slowed a lot, allowing eventual winner
Vesuvhill to come back on terms with him. It was
Vesuvhill who had the momentum and jumped the last slightly better before finding more and pulling 2 lengths clear of
Avel Vor.
Many of those who backed
Avel Vor (on paper better suited to the ground than the eventual winner)
will place the blame on Richard Johnson for arguably bringing him to the front way too soon on such testing ground.
Vesuvhill possibly got an easier ride in behind
Avel Vor, but he showed a good attitude to win.
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Sego Success continues to progress |
Second it was the Edward Courage Cup, and this race had a similar theme to the first; the eventual runner-up,
Keel Haul with James Davies on board, also hit the front early (four out) and went three lengths clear by the second last, but didn't have as much in the tank as the winner,
Upepito, who just passed him out in a tight finish on the line. Again, Davies probably could have waited longer to make his move rather than expanding more energy early on and giving
Upepito an easier route to the finish line in behind him.
Things got a bit more interesting next with the Listed Hampton Novices Chase, where
Sego Success continued his progression after impressing when winning his second start over fences at a lower level at Newbury last November.
Grand Vision's jumping was often notably good as he led, leaping boldly over the fences with about a foot to spare at times.
Deputy Dan possibly tired on his first outing over a longer trip, jumping well until making a mistake at the fourth last and jumping right thereafter, finding nothing on the run-in.
After making all and jumping fantastically,
Grand Vision was a few lengths to clear with 3 furlongs to travel and two fences to jump, when
Sego Success managed to get himself back into the picture, taking the lead over the last and finishing very well on the run-in.
Sego Success looks a real stayer and is certainly a candidate for the 4 mile National Hunt Chase at the festival, for which he is third in the market at between 10 and 12/1. In the long term, the aim would be campaign him for a National, and it'll be worth keeping an eye on how he progresses over time. The runner-up might enjoy a small drop in trip, but will be winning soon.
Join The Clan quickened very well to draw clear a long way out in the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle, and it looked like it would be a repeat of the first three races as
Closing Ceremony and
Vandross closed in on the tiring winner going towards the line - the latter made a mistake at the last, and neither could ultimately have any impression on
Join The Clan. It was a great ride by Patrick Cowley to achieve his first winner, shortened to 25/1 for the Pertemps at Cheltenham,
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Three Musketeers won well but will skip Cheltenham |
Next up was the Grade 2 Neptune Investment Leamington Novices Hurdle, where
Shantou Bob was the 10/11 favourite, followed in the market by 6/1 shot
Three Musketeers from the yard of Dan Skelton. It was the latter who put in a good performance to win from the game
Ballagh, who also ran very well.
The winner jumped well but will be skipping Cheltenham with the focus on going chasing next season. He ran well but had a few issues he needs to sort; seemingly a little bit immature, he tends to hang right and also can jump right, as he did at the second last - he still is green and has a lot to learn but no doubt will and could improve massively.
Ballagh ran very well and is definitely one to watch next time out, whether it's at the festival in the Neptune or Albert Bartlett, or before then. Favourite
Shantou Bob was under pressure from a long way out and disappointed.
The Grade 3 Betfred Handicap Chase was the feature race at Warwick, run over 3m 5f. Given the tough conditions, it was no surprise that only seven horses managed to finish the race, with 9/2 favourite
Return Spring one of the horses pulled up after some dodgy jumping and a poor run.
Hawkes Point won very well to put himself into the Grand National frame, with first-time blinkers seeming to make a huge difference. If he was to go to Cheltenham on the way, he would surely be in with a chance in the Festival Handicap Chase.
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Hawkes Point put himself in the Grand National frame |
Shotgun Paddy (3rd)
made a few errors jumping but ran extremely well and never gave up under top weight, proving himself to be a brave warrior, but jumping issues would suggest that he wouldn't be a Grand National horse. He would also have claims in the Festival Handicap Chase if he were to take that route however.
Theatrical Star in 2nd also put in a brave effort and challenged late, looking like a real stayer - he'll be given an entry in the Grand National, with Colin Tizzard speculating that his mark should be raised to about 139, and he should get in off that.
Now a look at the action at Kempton:
Kempton
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Cocktails At Dawn's jumping cost him yet again |
Cocktails At Dawn has shown plenty of potential plenty of times - he has, however, made mistakes on all three of his starts to date as a novice chaser, and today this proved as costly as ever. As he led going over the 9th,
Cocktails At Dawn blundered badly and stumbled on landing. This seemed to take a lot out of him, and there were three horses involved in an incredibly tight finish -
Cold March led over the last but idled on the run-in, with the win going to what seemed the most unlikely of the three,
Lost Legend, who wasn't fluent over the last but stayed on very well to win. The third horse, only a head behind the winner, was
Key To The West, who made most of the running but was headed after blundering 3 out and looked well beaten then - he did well to get back into the picture in the closing stages.
Evens favourite
Kingscourt Native won the William Hill Novices Hurdle - he won by a convincing margin of 9 lengths and ran very well, but made a bad mistake when hitting the last hurdle, and will definitely need to improve his jumping, whether or not he ends up heading to Cheltenham. I would have suspicions that he'd like the track if he was to go there, but he'll have no success at the festival if he doesn't cut errors like this out of his runs.
Only three ran in the Williamhill.com Chase, but it was interesting nonetheless -
Balder Succes was 10/11 favourite, followed in the market by
Hunt Ball at 15/8, trying to follow up from a great run at Cheltenham on New Years Day, and
Fox Appeal at 6/1.
Hunt Ball and
Balder Succes disputed the lead throughout, with the latter jumping more fluently for most of the race, while
Fox Appeal stayed on terms.
Hunt Ball dropped back quickly after the third last, leaving
Fox Appeal to take 2nd but by 10 lengths from
Balder Succes, who ran on impressively and jumped well despite looking slightly in doubt over the last.
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Balder Success - would it be best to skip Cheltenham? |
The winner could run in the Champion Chase, but the Ryanair looks the more likely option, with odds of 16/1 at best for that race. However, it's worth noting that he has failed to place on three previous starts at Cheltenham but was impressive when winning at Aintree last April, and that he seems to have a preference for flat tracks. When you factor in his record of 15 runs, 9 wins and a place in fields of 7 or less (a smaller field is much more likely in the Melling Chase than the Ryanair or Queen Mother), it's easy to see why skipping the festival and going straight to the Melling Chase at the Grand National meeting in Aintree could be a much better option.
The Lanzarote Hurdle is always a popular race and
Tea For Two was a very impressive winner by 16 lengths - a fantastic run and a fantastic ride from
Lizzie Kelly.
Tea For Two had a lot in hand in winning, and the jumping, a long-time worry for this horse, was very encouraging.
After such an impressive display, it's unlikely that we'll be seeing this horse again in handicap company - at the festival, his options are open, with the Supreme, the Albert Bartlett, the Neptune, and even the Coral Cup and the World Hurdle all possibilities for Nick Williams' novice hurdler after this impressive display.
Ardkilly Witness won the next, running a good race, but probably only really winning due to the the jumping errors of
Masters Hill, eventual 2nd, who made a bad mistake at the third last and jumped left at the last.
Ardkilly Witness just about came out ahead of him due to his better jumping in the closing stages of the contest, but he made two bad mistakes earlier on in the race. Overall, the jumping was bad throughout the race.
With Cheltenham in March in mind, though, it was in Ireland that today's most important race took place...
Douvan Impresses At Punchestown
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Douvan impressed at Gowran and followed up effortlessly today |
The Moscow Flyer Novices Hurdle was won last year by Vautour, who went on to win the Supreme Novices Hurdle in great style at the Cheltenham festival. This year, Mullins' exciting novice hurdling prospect is Douvan, another Rich Ricci-owned five-year-old who travelled beautifully and jumped perfectly to win his debut at Gowran in November. Since then, he has been prominent in the market for the Supreme Novices Hurdle at the festival, but today was the big day, when Mullins would unleash Douvan on the racecourse and see what he could do.
Douvan descended on Punchestown to compete in the Moscow Fly Novices Hurdle, as Vautour had done before him, bidding to seal favouritism in the Supreme. His performance left very little be analysed; his jumping was immaculate, he travelled sublimely, it was a joy to watch. Ruby Walsh sat comfortably on board Douvan and barely moved for the duration of the race, as Douvan comfortably cruised to the lead ahead of the final obstacle, and easily outclassed his opponents approaching the line.
Thinking back 12 months, Douvan's performance today was certainly more effortless than that of Vautour in this last year - Vautour was made work for the win by Western Boy approaching the line, while Douvan simply breezed past his rivals. However, assessing the quality of the opposition in a race like this one can be extremely difficult, and we're left with the same problem each year of not knowing what exactly a horse has beaten.
It should be noted, however, if we're going to compare Douvan's preparation for the festival with that of Vautour, that Vautour ran in, and won, the Grade 1 Deloitte Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown before going to Cheltenham, in which he was the second favourite and had to beat The Tullow Tank - he was certainly faced with tougher tasks before Cheltenham than Douvan would be if he was to go straight to the festival (to the Supreme or the Neptune) without another run, as is suspected.