Barry Geraghty - Cheltenham's 2 Mile King

Across racing, certain jockeys perform better at some tracks or in some conditions – like horses, they have experience, they have preferences, they have different styles suited to different surroundings. During the warm summer months on the flat, punters follow Richard Hughes around the sharp turns and severe undulations of Goodwood – he’s considered an expert at guiding horses through the many unexpected obstacles the Sussex track has to offer.

Jumps racing is no different, and although many jockeys have got good records at Cheltenham, one statistic stands out above the rest. 7 of the Cheltenham festival’s 27 races are run over approximately 2 miles, including some of the most prestigious Grade 1 events the racing calendar has to offer in the Supreme Novices Hurdle, the Champion Hurdle, the Champion Chase and the Arkle Chase.

Geraghty won the 2014 Champion Hurdle on Jezki (2m 1/2f)

In the last 10 years, Barry Geraghty has ridden in all of these races, and won most of them at some stage – Champion Chase winner in 2005 and 2010, Arkle winner in 2009 – but it’s in the last 5 festivals that Geraghty has shone over 2m. His form over this trip at the festival since winning with Big Zeb in the 2010 Champion Chase reads 2211116P. His unprecedented success over 2 miles at the festival (16 runners, 7 wins and 3 places – 44% wins and 63% win/place) stands out like a sore thumb when we look through the stats, yet is it a solid record?

At the 2012 and 2013 festivals, all four of his mounts over this trip won, making a massive contribution towards his good record. However, these horses were Sprinter Sacre (twice), Simonsig and Finians Rainbow – 3 of the 4 were odds-on. You could argue on this basis that any jockey worth his salt would have a strong record over this trip at the festival had they been riding such horses.

For this reason, I want to delve deeper into this to see whether or not Geraghty really is worth following over 2 miles at this year’s festival.

Geraghty's first festival winner was
Moscow Flyer over 2m.

Firstly, the man himself: The County Meath-man rode his first winner in 1997 and had his first festival success on-board Moscow Flyer (over 2 miles) in the 2002 Arkle. His win strike rates for the calendar year ranged from 9%-19% for the first 11 years of his career before hitting 21% in 2009, and  since then they’ve only dropped below the 20 mark once, when 19% of his horses won in the 2012 calendar year. 2014 was his best season yet in this regard, with 24% of his 496 rides winning, so he really seems to be at his best. Since his first Cheltenham victory back in 2002, he’s had at least one winner at the festival each year.

In his career, he has enjoyed successes at Cheltenham but it hasn’t been among his top tracks – 22 wins from 51 rides at Huntingdon since the beginning of 2005 must be the most notable – yet he is one of the most respected jockeys at this track, having ridden 31 festival winners in his career.

As for the trip, he certainly loves riding over 2 miles. If we include races run over 2m ½f just for the purposes of this particular section, we’ll see 1,817 rides, and 378 wins giving him a 21% win strike rate. Furthermore, a total of 822 made the frame, giving him a win/place strike rate of 45%.

This is impressive in itself, but just wait until we get to Cheltenham! Looking back over just 5 years at the  track (since the beginning of the 2010 calendar year) his record over exactly 2 miles here is 9 wins and 3 places from 19 runners (47% wins, 63% win/places). Sure enough, this record holds strong when we extend it back to the start of the 2005 calendar year, with 12 wins and a further 4 places from 26 runners (46% wins, 62% win/place).

So, it would seem that when we extend the data to look at not just the festival but all races at the track, the stats stay just as strong, if not stronger, and confirm to us that Barry Geraghty is the man to have your money on over 2 miles at Cheltenham.

Gold Cup Form Guide

The Cheltenham Gold Cup is quite simply the be all and end all for staying chasers. In this division of the sport’s elite, no horse is truly considered a great until they’ve come to Cheltenham in March and won the Gold Cup. A horse could win every Grade 1 chase over 3 miles in Britain and Ireland their career but the harsh reality is that unless they make their way to Cheltenham on that Friday in March and win, they won’t be remembered as a great staying chaser.

Other prestigious prizes such as the King George, the Hennessy, and the Lexus are wonderful races in their own right but all serve one fundamental purpose as preparation towards the Gold Cup.

Luckily for us, these races can give us plenty of clues in the build-up to the big race, but this year, the contrast in the form coming from the races is startling…

The Hennessy Gold Cup (Newbury, November 29th)

The Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury in November is interesting preparation for a Gold Cup as it’s the only one of these races to be run over the Gold Cup trip of 3m 2½f. The form from this race so far has been superb – winner Many Clouds and 5^th Smad Place went on to come 1^st and 2^nd in the BetBright Chase on trials day at Cheltenham, beating Grade 1 festival winner Dynaste in doing so. 

Many Clouds won the Hennessy Gold Cup last November

Runner-up Houblon Des Obeaux has come 2^nd in both subsequent starts, first with The Young Master beating him to complete a four-timer, and then coming closest to the hugely impressive Coneygree in a Grade 2 field full of horses which had contested Grade 1’s. In 3^rd behind Houblon Des Obeaux was Hennessy 6^th Unioniste, who won a £31k handicap at Sandown in between these two runs.

Merry King (4^th) ran no race at all in the Betfair Hurdle last weekend which was surprising, with The Druids Nephew (7^th), Wychwoods Brook and Fingal Bay (both pulled up) also failing to place on their sole subsequent starts. A massive boost was given to the Hennessy form by Djakadam in 8^th, however, who went on to win the Grade 1 Thyestes Chase at Gowran on his next start. Monbeg Dude (4th) has placed on both of his subsequent starts, both in graded contests.

Of the other pulled up horses, Le Reve came 3^rd in a listed handicap and won a class 2 on her two subsequent starts, Annacotty won a Grade 3 next time out at Cheltenham and Triolo DAlene finished 3^rd on his next start (behind Unioniste). Vino Grigio and Via Sundown haven’t achieved anything with combined post-Hennessy form of 6PU0P but this takes nothing away from the magnificent form coming from the race.

Overall Record: 22 subsequent runs – 5 wins – 7 places
Finishers Record: 11 subsequent runs – 3 wins – 5 places
In Grade 1’s: 1-1-0
In Grade 2’s: 4-1-2
In Grade 3’s: 3-1-2

Summary: The form coming from this year’s Hennessy at Newbury is simply outstanding, and we should definitely keep an eye on the horses from the race which haven’t run since (Midnight Prayer who was 9^th and Ballynagour, Rocky Creek and What A Warrior, all of whom were pulled up). More importantly, though, we need to keep an eye on these runners for the Gold Cup and treat the Hennessy as very strong Gold Cup form.

The King George VI Chase (Kempton, December 26th)

Arguably the second most prestigious chase of the calendar behind the Gold Cup, this is a natural stepping stone for a classy staying chaser on the way to potential Gold Cup glory. It’s a very different race, run over 3m on a flat track, but it’s always a massive piece of the Gold Cup jigsaw.

Silviniaco Conti won his second King George on Boxing Day

Most of this year’s King George runners haven’t been out again – winner Silviniaco Conti will head straight to the Gold Cup and 3^rd Al Ferof is out for the season with an injury – but those who have had a run have failed to impress.

Dynaste ran in the BetBright Cup Chase at Trials Weekend at Cheltenham and with two Grade 1 wins and a King George 2^nd to his name, he went off 5/2 favourite in the field of 6. He was beaten into 3^rd, however by two Hennessy runners – winner Many Clouds who won the BetBright Cup despite carrying 4lb more than he had done in the Hennessy, and Smad Place who came 5^th in the Hennessy.

The other two horses to have run since the King George are 4^th Champagne Fever, and Double Ross who pulled up in the King George. Champagne Fever was leading in a tough battle with Don Cossack in a Grade 2 2m 4f Chase at Thurles last month when he fell at the last and left Gordon Elliott’s charge to win, 44 lengths ahead of Texas Jack in 2^nd. He then went on to win a Grade 2 at Gowran over 2m 4f.

Double Ross ran in the Grade 2 Denman Chase at Newbury and faced some good horses but that’s no excuse for how he never travelled, never got involved and finished last, about 20 lengths behind the winner.

What’s really interesting is that (assuming that Dynaste was going to go to the Ryanair as David Pipe had suggested before injury ruled him out for the remainder of the season) of the 9 horses to come home behind Silviniaco Conti in the King George, none are deemed fit to run in the Gold Cup. Champagne Fever is expected to go in the Champion Chase over just 2 miles unless he taken the Ryanair route, a race which all of the other runners also hold entries for. The Ryanair is a Grade 1 chase run over 5 furlongs less than the Gold Cup, and it really looks like this year’s King George was full of non-stayers.

Silviniaco Conti may have been impressive in winning the King George, but there’s no denying that he won it from a bunch of horses who are a lot better over a shorter trip – that’s not the type of horse he’ll have to beat when the Gold Cup comes around.

Overall Record: 4 subsequent runs – 1 win – 0 places
Finishers Record: 3 subsequent runs – 1 win – 0 places
In Grade 1’s: 0-0-0
In Grade 2’s: 4-1-0
In Grade 3’s: 0-0-0

Lexus Chase (Leopardstown, December 28th)

The Lexus Chase is also a very different race to the Gold Cup in that like the King George it’s run on a flat track over 3 miles. But, like the King George, it is a natural progression for a horse to head towards the Gold Cup after winning the Lexus.

Road To Riches won the Lexus just days after the King George

The Lexus is strongly linked with the Irish Hennessy which is run at the same track over the same distance for the same horses just over a month later. For this reason, it’s not much use to us looking at the figures in the same way as we did for the other two races, as all six subsequent runs were one race. Lexus winner Road To Riches hasn’t been seen since and is Gold Cup-bound, 2^nd On His Own came 6^th in the Hennessy, 4^th Boston Bob finished 4^th again, 5^th Carlingford Lough won the Hennessy, 6^th First Lieutenant came 8^th, 7^th Lord Windermere came 3^rd and Home Farm, who fell in the Lexus, finished 7^th in the Irish Hennessy.

So, two horses improved their finishing positions (from 5^th to 1^st and from 7^th to 3^rd), two did worse (from 2^nd to 6^th and from 6^th to 8^th), Boston Bob stayed in 4^th and Home Farm stayed on his feet.

It’s difficult to know what to take from this, yes, but what we can see is that at least two thirds of the 9 Lexus runners are being aimed at the Gold Cup. Road To Riches beat Gold Cup contenders (and two past Gold Cup winners) to win the Lexus, while Silviniaco Conti beat non-stayers. Yet for the Gold Cup, Silviniaco Conti is as short as 11/4 in places while Road To Riches and Many Clouds can both be easily backed at 9/1 – interesting to say the least.

Cheltenham - The Ground Rules

In the build-up to the festival, we hear some clichéd “rules” and guidelines as to what you should and shouldn’t back – people telling you not to back the favourite, not to back top weight in handicaps, etc. We’ve outlined two of the ground rules at Cheltenham and looked into why they should be followed.

1. Don’t Back The Girls Against The Boys

Of the 257 festival races in the last 10 years, 111 have included runners of both sexes, and so it’s these 111 races that provide the basis for our investigation.

1. So, in the 111 races, there was a total of 2,100 males running and 168 females, all competing for the 111 wins and 391 total places (including wins) which were up for grabs. In total, the 111 winning spots were taken up by 106 males and 5 females.

So, fact number one: there were approximately 5.4 times more males than females in the races, and they won 21.2 times more races.

2. 92.6% of the total field were males, as were 92.8% of the total places – so, when we look at the data like this we see horses of each sex performing exactly as we would have expected them to. Likewise, 7.4% of the total field were female, as were 7.2% of the total places.

Even wonder-mare Annie Power came up short against a
male competitor in last year's World Hurdle

3. The final way we look at this is a bit more complicated, but gives us a very accurate idea of how horses performed. Firstly, we look at each runner’s odds, and give it a number of probability based on said odds. A 10/1 shot’s expectancy/probability of winning is 0.09, an evens favourite is 0.5.

Basically, we're going to add all of these “expectancies” together and divide the total by the amount of winners. The males' final figure of actual wins/expected wins is 0.81. When we do the same with the females, our final figure is 0.53.

It may be worth noting that in the one case where the females don’t greatly underperform in our statistics, we’re taking places into consideration. Therefore, it might be worth watching the girls if you want an each-way bet, but when it comes to picking a winner, it’s all about the boys.

Annie Power losing the World Hurdle last year as 11/8 favourite was a high-profile case of a talented female horse losing at the festival. There have been plenty more though - Ping Pong Sivola was the 13/2 favourite in what is now the Byrne Group Plate in 2009, My Petra the 3/1 favourite in the 2008 Grand Annual, Luanos the 7/2 favourite in the 2007 Triumph, and Amaretto Rose the 2/1 favourite in the 2007 Supreme. These were all the female clear favourites since 2007, and their form reads 30222 – they can place, but the girls just never seem to have what it takes to win.

2. Don’t Back 11yos+

1. We’ll look at this in much the same way – 112 races in the last 10 festivals have featured at least one horse aged 11 or older, with 2,139 total runners in these races and 344 total places up for grabs. 16% of the runners in these races were actually aged 11+ (344 runners), and this 16% of runners managed to win about 4.5% of the races (5 races).

Hurricane Fly bids to win the Champion Hurdle aged 11 in 2015

2. Furthermore, this 16% of runners managed to take up 13.1% of places – a better record than they had in terms of winners, but a slight underperformance all the same.

3. If we look at the data in the same way as we did in part one (actual amount of wins/expected amount of wins) we come up with a minute 0.29. This means that not only did the horses aged 11+ fail to win very much in the last 10 years, they had, according to the bookmaker's odds, been well fancied to do a lot better than they did. 

We have to look back to 2010 to find the last time a horse aged older than 10 won at the festival, and this was Alfie Sherrin, a 12yo winning the Glenfarclas over 3m 7f. Before that it was 2008 and Mister McGoldrick winning what is now the Byrne Group Plate as an 11yo over 2m 4½f. Before that, 2006 when Native Jack was 12 when he won the Glenfarclas. In 2005, Moscow Flyer won the Champion Chase as an 11yo and Spot Thedifference won the Glenfarclas aged 12.

Notice anything? Yep, the Glenfarclas. So, apparently we need to make a slight exception to this ground rule in that the older horses have performed extremely well in the Glenfarclas.

With both the females and the over 11's, their place records aren't as bad as is often suggested. Therefore, if there was an each-way long shot I wanted to back at the festival, I wouldn't necessarily be put off by either of these factors. However, the statistics clearly show that females and over 11's find it difficult to win at Prestbury Park in March.

Philip Hobbs Exclusive Interview

Philip Hobbs has been hugely successful at the Cheltenham festival in recent years and has some very interesting runners heading to the festival this year - we spoke to him about their targets, their chances and more...

Firstly, let’s look back before we look ahead – 2 winners last year, 5 over the 4 years before that, you’ve had some great days at the festival. Can you pick one that stands out? 
Rooster Booster winning the Champion Hurdle was the highlight

Rooster Booster on his way to winning the 2003 Champion
Hurdle for Hobbs

As a trainer, what do you find it takes from a horse to win here at Cheltenham? How different is the festival and could you describe the atmosphere here in March? 
You need a horse rated 135 and, even in the handicaps, that is in the form of his life. The atmosphere is simply as good as it gets.

Both Return Spring and Royal Player are entered in both the RSA and the 4 miler, what are you leaning towards with them? Cheltenian’s entered in the JLT and the Arkle, where are you more likely to head with him and why? 
Return Spring will go in the 4 mile. Royal Player won’t run. Cheltenian will go in the County Hurdle after his very good run in the Betfair Hurdle.

You’ve got three entered in the Arkle, who will run and how do you rate their chances?
It's only Dunraven Storm, that could have an each way chance on good ground.

You must be really happy with Menorah’s form this season up until the King George, what would you put it down to? What were your thoughts on the King George run and how do you rate his chances in the Ryanair? Thoughts on Wishfull Thinking in the same regard?
He ran really well up to the King George and I don’t know why he disappointed. He probably won’t run in Ryan Air, while Wishfull Thinking probably will.

How would you rate Garde La Victoire’s chances in the Champion Hurdle was he to run?
Garde La Victoire will probably run in a handicap if at all.

Finally, a word on your Grand National entries – Chance Du Roy, Duke Of Lucca, Gas Line Boy and last year’s 2nd Balthazar King - will they go straight to the National? 
Chance Du Roy and Balthazar King will go straight to Aintree but I don’t know about the other two yet.

Could you give us one tip for the festival and one horse to watch for next season?
Wait For Me could be both.

Wait For Me is currently 12/1 for the Champion Bumper with Bet365 - if you haven't already got an account, you can open one here to take advantage of their many special offers in the build-up to and during the festival, and throughout the year.

(Re-Posted) January 1st Cheltenham Post-Racing Notes

There was a technical error last month and this post was deleted shortly after being published, so we'll re-post it now in case anything in here will come in useful to our form studying in March.

Harry Fry confirmed post-race that Thomas Brown would be aimed at the Albert Bartlett over 3 miles at the festival, and after showing that he will stay and winning at the track, there's no reason why he shouldn't be taken seriously for it. The second also ran a very good race and it's hard to take anything away from him, other than maybe one mistake at the 4th. The disappointing horse in the race was Different Gravy, who is flattered by his finishing position of 4th. He jumped badly and looked well beaten early on. Zeroeshadesofgrey should be seen to better light over a longer distance.

Mon Parrain was the second winner of the day, given a fantastic ride by Sean Bowen who is also in good form after completing a treble on Welsh Grand National day at Chepstow last week. He carried the top weight and seemed to progress wearing blinkers for the first time. He looks a true stayer, and it will be interesting to see whether Nicholls has a Grand National outsider in this horse. Our Father ran well in 2nd but couldn't pass Mon Parrain on the hill, while Saint Aire put in a massive effort coming up the hill to finish 3rd, perhaps not gifted the same fine ride that Mon Parrain received under Bowen. The Grand National is most likely the aim for Saint Aire too and it's very possible that they're trying to get his mark up. 

In 5th, veteran Pigeon Island put in an admirable effort, visibly tiring before the last but jumping it superbly and refusing to give up in an honest display up the hill. Charingworth on the other hand traveled well only to die in the final furlong, while Alfie Spinner also seemed to be going well at stages.

Evens favourite Ptit Zig, 6th in last year's Champion Hurdle, came out on top in the Grade 2 Dipper Novices Chase, strengthening his JLT claims (6/1 top price), with the 2m 4f novice chase more or less confirmed by Paul Nicholls to be the festival target. It was a good test for the classy winner and he yet again looked to be taking brilliantly to fences, with 4 wins from 4 starts this season. 

Champagne West in 2nd didn't do his festival claims any harm either, with the RSA over a longer distance more likely his target, with better staying ability than his rival today. He's down to about 12/1 for that race and also warrants respect. It's always hard to analyse novice form, but at this stage Ptit Zig looks like a very exciting prospect and it would seem that if Champagne West can get him off the bridle, he's a very good horse himself. The form of this race could turn out to be extremely strong, and so it may be worth keeping an eye out for Top Totti, Ned Stark and Clondaw Kaempfer.

Then it was on to the Grade 3 2m 5f Handicap Chase, when Splash Of Ginge traveled well and took a massive jump over the last to win impressively. Given a great ride by Jamie Bargany, the Twiston-Davies charge made amends for falling here last month. The same yard won this race last year with Double Ross, who went on to be 3rd in the JLT and then 5th in the Topham, before contesting some of the top chases this season. It would be no surprise to see Splash Of Ginge going on to do the same, Hunt Ball just about got 2nd from Caid Du Berlais, who blundered the last and tried very hard coming up the hill - his jumping was costly and would have a negative effect on his chances in either the Ryanair Chase or Byrne Group Place.

Sean Bowen completed a double in the next on Rolling Maul who was another fine winner, also in blinkers for the first time - he traveled very well, jumped very well, and fought very well when he had to. It was another very good ride by Sean on father Peter's horse.

Rock On Ruby will be aimed at the World Hurdle at this year's festival after winning today. We have no way of telling whether he will stay that trip, but at the age of 10, it's likely to be his last festival. He beat Vaniteux in 2nd.

It's the last time we'll see racing here until the tapes go up and the roar sounds around Prestbury Park at 1.30pm on the 10th of March. Some interesting pointers from today - roll on the festival!

February 8th Leopardstown Post-Racing Notes

There were four Grade 1 contests at Leopardstown on Sunday and all carried festival pointers in some form or another; Willie Mullins had well-fancied favourites in all of them and although he managed to win two, it was not with the favourites, whose form on the day reads 2326.

Petite Parisienne won the battle with Kalkir

The first was the Spring Juvenile Hurdle, from which the Triumph Hurdle winner has come the last three years in a row (Tiger Roll was 2^nd in this race last year before winning at the festival, Our Conor won this in 2013 en route to an impressive Triumph success and Countrywide Flame was 3^rd in this in 2012). Kalkir was 5/4 to get Mullins off to a good start, but it was stablemate Petite Parisienne that beat him in a battle on the run-in. It’s hard to make any excuses for Kalkir and both will head to the Triumph, but his loss will arguably do nothing other than strengthen Peace And Co’s claims to Triumph Hurdle Glory.

The next Grade 1 was the Deloitte, won last year by Vautour on his way to Supreme success. Firstly, I would have liked to see Douvan campaigned in the same way that Vautour was by running in this pre-festival, as he would have had to prove himself against some good Grade 1 winners and would certainly have left less questions to be answered heading towards the Supreme. The way it is, Douvan surely still has more to prove that Vautour did at this time last year (he had beaten The Tullow Tank among others).

Nichols Canyon would be an interesting Neptune runner

Alvisio Ville was the 11/10 Mullins favourite and again he was beaten by a stablemate; Nichols Canyon has now won two Grade 1’s since taking to hurdles and has done nothing wrong other than unseating once in Grade 1 company at Leopardstown. He could still go in any one of the Supreme, Neptune or Albert Bartlett, but it looks likely that he’ll run in the Neptune and he’s currently disputing ante-post favouritism at 8/1.

Windsor Park put in a great run in 2^nd and has to also be taken into consideration in whatever race he ends up being aimed (probably the Neptune too).

The Flogas Novice Chase was the third Grade 1 of the day and Apache Stronghold won very impressively for Noel Meade, bringing him towards the top of the ante-post markets for the JLT and the RSA. If he, Vautour, Gilgamboa and Ptit Zig ran in the JLT, it could be a fantastic contest, and that’s before we even begin to consider the possible entries in the form of Valseur Lido who finished 2^nd behind Apache Stronghold yesterday and Gitane Du Berlais who was an eye-catching winner of the Scilly Isles Novices Chase.

Carlingford Lough was a hugely popular winner for the retiring
AP McCoy

Finally, the big race of the day was the Hennessy Gold Cup, with some very real Cheltenham Gold Cup contenders battling it out (admittedly on a very different track) en route to the festival. Carlingford Lough was thought by some to be the unlucky horse in the Lexus and was an extremely popular winner today, providing AP McCoy with a big-race win on what is almost sure to be his last visit to Leopardstown. The Gold Cup is the aim after yesterday’s win, and it's interesting that two Galway Plate winners in  Road To Riches and Carlingford Lough are heading towards the Gold Cup this year.

Foxrock kept up some very consistent form to finish a fairly close 2^nd behind him travelling and jumping well, while Lord Windermere ran a much better race than in the Lexus and was encouraging to anyone who is supporting him to retain his Gold Cup crown at the festival. He hit the front after jumping the second last brilliantly and held the lead for a while before falling back to finish 3^rd in a very respectable run.

On His Own jumped marginally straighter than in the Lexus

On His Own’s habit of jumping to the right has been his downfall in the past and he improved on this today from the Lexus run. He jumped right at a few obstacles but not as violently as he has done in the past and the problem which resurfaced at its worst on St Stephens Day seems to have improved slightly since – still a problem, but to a lesser extent.

Boston Bob wasn’t being aimed at today, nor was he being aimed at the Lexus, and connections know what they’re doing so it would be no surprise to see him improve on better ground at Cheltenham in March and it’s worth noting how much he has drifted – I’m not suggesting a bet in the Gold Cup but we can expect some improvement. 

7th February Post-Racing Notes from Newbury & Warwick

The 1.50 at Lingfield was won by Bygones Sovereign who led all the way around by some distance while the others stayed tightly grouped together, waiting for him to drop back. It never happened, though, and Bygones Sovereign, who has been improved progressively since December, won by a huge margin. Milan Bar didn’t run a bad race to come 4^th; the other jockeys would have been expecting the winner to drop back by the end and didn’t realise that they would have to challenge him until it was an impossible task.

Vibrato Valtat impressed, but what exactly did he beat?

Vibrato Valtat has shortened for the Arkle after impressing at Newbury, winning very easily and sealing his place as the top British hope for the Arkle this year. He looked classy and impressive and value hunters will have reason to hope based on the race that he could give Un De Sceaux something to think about at the festival. 

Top Gamble jumped well until ploughing through the fourth last but Vibrato Valtat took it very easily from him on the bridle when the time came; however, it must be noted that the rest of this field are to our knowledge far from the level of the field that Un De Sceax beat in the Irish Arkle at Leopardstown (Gilgamboa and Clarcam).

The Denman Chase was won by novice Coneygree who also won the Kauto Star Novices Chase over Chistmas at Kempton, given little trouble that day in a terrible race but jumping superbly and winning well. He proved himself even more today, leading around and jumping very well to win in style bar a slight mistake over the third obstacle – he leapt very well at all the others. When Coneygree picked up the pace, Houblon Des Obeaux was able keep some involvement until the third last when Coneygree jumped fantastically and drew clear very easily.

Coneygree can jump a fence well and beat his elders

The Gold Cup is likely to be the target now instead of a novices contest, and he looks to have the raw talent to do well among his elders in National Hunt racing’s most prestigious race, but the record of novices in the race is dire and there is the school of thought that the Gold Cup will still be there to be won in 2016, and it would be no harm to leave Coneygree racing in novice company at the festival.

The OLBG Mares Hurdle at Warwick was won by the impressive Glens Melody who beat some interesting opposition en route to the Mares race at the festival. She came 2^nd in that race last year and 3^rd the year before, and it’s fair to say that wonder-mare ex-stablemate Quevega probably denied Glens Melody some festival glory with her dominance of the race over the last 6 years. 

It’s unlikely that Glens Melody will have more success this year, however, with Annie Power set to run in the Mares race, yet there are rumours that she may not be 100% by March and if she’s not we can certainly expect stablemate Glens Melody to take her chance and put in a big run. It was truly effortless for her today and she simply strolled to victory, receiving virtually no reminders from Paul Carberry. This brings her record at Warwick to 3 from 3, so we should definitely watch her if she returns here next season.

Mr Mole came out on top with Sire De Grugy and Uxizandre
unseating their riders

The main talking point at Newbury today was supposed to be Sire De Grugy’s return to the racecourse but that all changed dramatically in the space of 10 minutes. Mr Mole missed the start and conceded about 12 lengths but made the ground up fairly easily In the early stages. Without Mr Mole, Uxizandre made the running, while Sire De Grugy began slightly keenly. Mr Mole made his way into 2^nd and it was he, Sire De Grugy and Uxizandre who looked to be in the race with 4 to jump, Upsilon Bleu and Karinga Dancer having had no real impression on the race overall. 

Sire De Grugy ran through the 4^th last very badly in the style of a tired horse while Uxizandre also made a mistake, allowing Mr Mole to take the lead. However, Sire De Grugy made even less of an attempt to clear the third last fence and went through it lazily, unseating Gary Moore in the process. Mr Mole was 15 lengths clear in front by the time Uxizandre made a bad mistake at the last to also unseat his rider, leaving just Mr Mole, Upsilon Bleu and Karinga Dancer to finish the race.

Firstly, before we move on to the post-racing events, a word on Sire De Grugy: he looked a tired horse, and this is understandable after such a long break, but it’s hard to tell whether we can put his bad performance down to him needing a run to shake off the cobwebs. It certainly wasn’t the same type of performance that saw him win four Grade 1’s last season, and with neither he nor Sprinter Sacre impressing on their reappearances, the Champion Chase is an open race to say the least.

Mr Mole brought AP McCoy his 200^th winner of the season making this the tenth time that he had ridden 200 winners in one season, and, as he told Rishi Pershad post-race, the last time. He confirmed in an announcement that shook the racing community that he will be retiring at the end of the season.

The Champion.

I have little to say about McCoy that hasn’t been said already over the last couple of days and words seem futile to express this man’s talent, his commitment, his bravery, his humility, his dominance over National Hunt racing over the last 20 years. He has a natural ability the likes of which we’re unlikely to ever see again and we could never ask for a better ambassador for our sport. In the 75 days remaining in his career, I would urge everyone to seize any opportunity they get to see McCoy ride a horse in the flesh. He truly is a jockey we’ll be telling tales of for decades to come.

For many National Hunt fans, Tony McCoy has been a constant in their following of the sport. Some know not what National Hunt racing is without AP McCoy riding winners and obliterating all competitors in the British Jumps Jockeys Championship. A gap will be left in our sport and not many men will ever be able to fill the boots of the great McCoy.

National Hunt racing can be as cruel as it is unpredictable, however, and it’s highs and lows were demonstrated immediately after McCoy announced his retirement. The Betfair Hurdle seemed almost insignificant considering the enormity of the bombshell McCoy has just hit us with, but we were reminded of the harsh reality of racing with its highs and lows when Goodwood Mirage unseated the man of the moment at the first hurdle.

He was one of two horses which had already lost a small bit of ground at the start, the other being Wicklow Brave, possibly worth noting considering the fact that the same horse shied away from the tape and lost a lot of ground at the Punchestown festival last April.

Violet Dancer was the eventual winner from Cheltenian, Activial, Calipto, Jollys Cracked It and Arzal. The winner put in a good run and must be in the County Hurdle picture now. Activial is probably still higher-rated heading towards the festival with some good form over hurdles taken into account. Jollys Cracked It finished well and could well be suited by the Cheltenham hill, but it was Arzal that most will take from the race, recovering well after he lost ground when hampered by the fall of Chieftains Choice. This might make him worth watching next time out, but the market often over-compensates for such hard-luck stories so we have to be cautious too.

An eventful day at Newbury to say the least, with a few pointers towards the festival, but it wasn’t the horses that took centre-stage but a man who has been inseparably associated with the sport for 25 years now; AP McCoy – the legend, the Champion.

10th January Post-Racing Notes

January can sometimes be a quiet month, and today's racing wasn't the best we've ever seen, but there's plenty to take from it going forward. At Warwick, the going was soft and it was tough, grueling conditions where stamina came to the fore...

Warwick

In the first at Warwick, 5/2 favourite Avel Vor ran a good race throughout before challenging at the third last hurdle and and taking the lead. He was five lengths clear when he blundered the second last and then slowed a lot, allowing eventual winner Vesuvhill to come back on terms with him. It was Vesuvhill who had the momentum and jumped the last slightly better before finding more and pulling 2 lengths clear of Avel Vor. Many of those who backed Avel Vor (on paper better suited to the ground than the eventual winner) will place the blame on Richard Johnson for arguably bringing him to the front way too soon on such testing ground. Vesuvhill possibly got an easier ride in behind Avel Vor, but he showed a good attitude to win.

Sego Success continues to progress

Second it was the Edward Courage Cup, and this race had a similar theme to the first; the eventual runner-up, Keel Haul with James Davies on board, also hit the front early (four out) and went three lengths clear by the second last, but didn't have as much in the tank as the winner, Upepito, who just passed him out in a tight finish on the line. Again, Davies probably could have waited longer to make his move rather than expanding more energy early on and giving Upepito an easier route to the finish line in behind him.

Things got a bit more interesting next with the Listed Hampton Novices Chase, where Sego Success continued his progression after impressing when winning his second start over fences at a lower level at Newbury last November. Grand Vision's jumping was often notably good as he led, leaping boldly over the fences with about a foot to spare at times.

Deputy Dan possibly tired on his first outing over a longer trip, jumping well until making a mistake at the fourth last and jumping right thereafter, finding nothing on the run-in.

After making all and jumping fantastically, Grand Vision was a few lengths to clear with 3 furlongs to travel and two fences to jump, when Sego Success managed to get himself back into the picture, taking the lead over the last and finishing very well on the run-in.

Sego Success looks a real stayer and is certainly a candidate for the 4 mile National Hunt Chase at the festival, for which he is third in the market at between 10 and 12/1. In the long term, the aim would be campaign him for a National, and it'll be worth keeping an eye on how he progresses over time. The runner-up might enjoy a small drop in trip, but will be winning soon.

Join The Clan quickened very well to draw clear a long way out in the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle, and it looked like it would be a repeat of the first three races as Closing Ceremony and Vandross closed in on the tiring winner going towards the line - the latter made a mistake at the last, and neither could ultimately have any impression on Join The Clan. It was a great ride by Patrick Cowley to achieve his first winner, shortened to 25/1 for the Pertemps at Cheltenham,

Three Musketeers won well but will skip Cheltenham

Next up was the Grade 2 Neptune Investment Leamington Novices Hurdle, where Shantou Bob was the 10/11 favourite, followed in the market by 6/1 shot Three Musketeers from the yard of Dan Skelton. It was the latter who put in a good performance to win from the game Ballagh, who also ran very well.

The winner jumped well but will be skipping Cheltenham with the focus on going chasing next season. He ran well but had a few issues he needs to sort; seemingly a little bit immature, he tends to hang right and also can jump right, as he did at the second last - he still is green and has a lot to learn but no doubt will and could improve massively. Ballagh ran very well and is definitely one to watch next time out, whether it's at the festival in the Neptune or Albert Bartlett, or before then. Favourite Shantou Bob was under pressure from a long way out and disappointed.

The Grade 3 Betfred Handicap Chase was the feature race at Warwick, run over 3m 5f. Given the tough conditions, it was no surprise that only seven horses managed to finish the race, with 9/2 favourite Return Spring one of the horses pulled up after some dodgy jumping and a poor run. Hawkes Point won very well to put himself into the Grand National frame, with first-time blinkers seeming to make a huge difference. If he was to go to Cheltenham on the way, he would surely be in with a chance in the Festival Handicap Chase.

Hawkes Point put himself in the Grand National frame

Shotgun Paddy (3rd) made a few errors jumping but ran extremely well and never gave up under top weight, proving himself to be a brave warrior, but jumping issues would suggest that he wouldn't be a Grand National horse. He would also have claims in the Festival Handicap Chase if he were to take that route however. Theatrical Star in 2nd also put in a brave effort and challenged late, looking like a real stayer - he'll be given an entry in the Grand National, with Colin Tizzard speculating that his mark should be raised to about 139, and he should get in off that.

Now a look at the action at Kempton:

Kempton

Cocktails At Dawn's jumping cost him yet again

Cocktails At Dawn has shown plenty of potential plenty of times - he has, however, made mistakes on all three of his starts to date as a novice chaser, and today this proved as costly as ever. As he led going over the 9th, Cocktails At Dawn blundered badly and stumbled on landing. This seemed to take a lot out of him, and there were three horses involved in an incredibly tight finish - Cold March led over the last but idled on the run-in, with the win going to what seemed the most unlikely of the three, Lost Legend, who wasn't fluent over the last but stayed on very well to win. The third horse, only a head behind the winner, was Key To The West, who made most of the running but was headed after blundering 3 out and looked well beaten then - he did well to get back into the picture in the closing stages.

Evens favourite Kingscourt Native won the William Hill Novices Hurdle - he won by a convincing margin of 9 lengths and ran very well, but made a bad mistake when hitting the last hurdle, and will definitely need to improve his jumping, whether or not he ends up heading to Cheltenham. I would have suspicions that he'd like the track if he was to go there, but he'll have no success at the festival if he doesn't cut errors like this out of his runs.

Only three ran in the Williamhill.com Chase, but it was interesting nonetheless - Balder Succes was 10/11 favourite, followed in the market by Hunt Ball at 15/8, trying to follow up from a great run at Cheltenham on New Years Day, and Fox Appeal at 6/1.

Hunt Ball and Balder Succes disputed the lead throughout, with the latter jumping more fluently for most of the race, while Fox Appeal stayed on terms. Hunt Ball dropped back quickly after the third last, leaving Fox Appeal to take 2nd but by 10 lengths from Balder Succes, who ran on impressively and jumped well despite looking slightly in doubt over the last.

Balder Success - would it be best to skip Cheltenham?

The winner could run in the Champion Chase, but the Ryanair looks the more likely option, with odds of 16/1 at best for that race. However, it's worth noting that he has failed to place on three previous starts at Cheltenham but was impressive when winning at Aintree last April, and that he seems to have a preference for flat tracks. When you factor in his record of 15 runs, 9 wins and a place in fields of 7 or less (a smaller field is much more likely in the Melling Chase than the Ryanair or Queen Mother), it's easy to see why skipping the festival and going straight to the Melling Chase at the Grand National meeting in Aintree could be a much better option.

The Lanzarote Hurdle is always a popular race and Tea For Two was a very impressive winner by 16 lengths - a fantastic run and a fantastic ride from Lizzie Kelly. Tea For Two had a lot in hand in winning, and the jumping, a long-time worry for this horse, was very encouraging.

After such an impressive display, it's unlikely that we'll be seeing this horse again in handicap company - at the festival, his options are open, with the Supreme, the Albert Bartlett, the Neptune, and even the Coral Cup and the World Hurdle all possibilities for Nick Williams' novice hurdler after this impressive display.

Ardkilly Witness won the next, running a good race, but probably only really winning due to the the jumping errors of Masters Hill, eventual 2nd, who made a bad mistake at the third last and jumped left at the last. Ardkilly Witness just about came out ahead of him due to his better jumping in the closing stages of the contest, but he made two bad mistakes earlier on in the race. Overall, the jumping was bad throughout the race.

With Cheltenham in March in mind, though, it was in Ireland that today's most important race took place...

Douvan Impresses At Punchestown

Douvan impressed at Gowran and followed up effortlessly today

The Moscow Flyer Novices Hurdle was won last year by Vautour, who went on to win the Supreme Novices Hurdle in great style at the Cheltenham festival. This year, Mullins' exciting novice hurdling prospect is Douvan, another Rich Ricci-owned five-year-old who travelled beautifully and jumped perfectly to win his debut at Gowran in November. Since then, he has been prominent in the market for the Supreme Novices Hurdle at the festival, but today was the big day, when Mullins would unleash Douvan on the racecourse and see what he could do. 

Douvan descended on Punchestown to compete in the Moscow Fly Novices Hurdle, as Vautour had done before him, bidding to seal favouritism in the Supreme. His performance left very little be analysed; his jumping was immaculate, he travelled sublimely, it was a joy to watch. Ruby Walsh sat comfortably on board Douvan and barely moved for the duration of the race, as Douvan comfortably cruised to the lead ahead of the final obstacle, and easily outclassed his opponents approaching the line.

Thinking back 12 months, Douvan's performance today was certainly more effortless than that of Vautour in this last year - Vautour was made work for the win by Western Boy approaching the line, while Douvan simply breezed past his rivals. However, assessing the quality of the opposition in a race like this one can be extremely difficult, and we're left with the same problem each year of not knowing what exactly a horse has beaten. 

It should be noted, however, if we're going to compare Douvan's preparation for the festival with that of Vautour, that Vautour ran in, and won, the Grade 1 Deloitte Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown before going to Cheltenham, in which he was the second favourite and had to beat The Tullow Tank - he was certainly faced with tougher tasks before Cheltenham than Douvan would be if he was to go straight to the festival (to the Supreme or the Neptune) without another run, as is suspected.

Lexus Chase Post-Racing Notes

A few notes to take after today's Lexus Chase, naturally with one eye on the future, and especially the Cheltenham Gold Cup:

Road To Riches ran a fine race to win, and was given an equally fine ride from terrific young jockey Bryan Cooper, who only returned to action in October after a very bad fall at Cheltenham in March. He's back on top form, though, with 3 of his 5 runners today winning. Road To Riches looks like a seriously exciting prospect looking ahead, with clear and constant progress of late to the point of a wonderful consistency where he has form of 121211 in his last 6 starts.

Road To Riches; Clearly progressive & increasingly consistent

The fact that his profile was so against all conditions today may show just how well he performed to win. One school of thought would make you wonder just how well he could perform had the conditions suited him a bit better. One thing is for sure, and that's that since the end of last season, Road To Riches has shown serious ability which you would be forgiven for thinking climaxed in the Galway Plate. However, he solidified the form by winning the Grade 1 JNwine.com Champion Chase at Down Royal, and even further by winning today. There's no doubt at this stage that Road To Riches is a serious Gold Cup contender.

2nd was On His Own, a horse very different to Road To Riches in that he hasn't shown great consistency over the past while. He ran a very good and arguably unlucky 2nd in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last March, since which he has disappointed twice. However, today's run was a strong one, but there was one clear and obvious problem - his jumping.

On His Own's unfortunate habit of jumping to the right let him down

It's almost tiring complaining about the jumping of Mullins' chasers, but On His Own jumped violently to the right at nearly every fence and lost so much ground in doing so that he easily would have won the Lexus had he jumped straight and properly. It's not a new problem for him - jumping problems and small mistakes are a common feature in his runs, but jumping to the right this much hasn't been seen as clearly since he won the Thyestes Chase at Gowran almost a year ago. If this problem was to be solved, we'd have another serious candidate for the Gold Cup, but for some reason it looks unlikely that Mullins will wave a magic wand at this and it will simply go away.

Sam Winner was a surprise 3rd and cynics would claim that it shows a lack of class in the race. Others would argue that Nicholls' horse proved himself as having a bit more class than some of us may have thought. He was certainly able to put in a good run among proven Grade 1 horses, and there's no doubt that he really will, as the saying goes, stay longer than the mother-in-law. It was a really big run that he put in and there's no doubt that he could excel over the 3m 2f of the Gold Cup - but is he more likely to be suited by the marathon 4m 4f of the Grand National or 4m of the Scottish National?

First Lieutenant landed unfavourably at the last and lost ground as a result

Just missing out on a place was Boston Bob, who for a long time has been billed as a horse who could win the Gold Cup "if he got his jumping sorted out". Today he put in a massive run considering that, although we outlined his strong record on bad ground, he is widely regarded as having a preference towards good ground, and should also enjoy the trip in the Gold Cup.

Carlingford Lough was interestingly the horse that many people seem to have taken from the race. He put in a decent race and could have finished better had he not been carried right before the last and then hampered it slightly. First Lieutenant was my each-way bet and I really feel he could have done a lot better on the run-in had he not hampered the last and then landed out of rhythm, causing him to lose his motion momentarily and lose a bit of ground in the process.

We were openly fairly critical of Lord Windermere after his Gold Cup win last year, stating that he was a below-par Gold Cup winner in a below-par renewal of the Gold Cup. Unfortunately, he was disappointing today and equally disappointing on his other start since the Gold Cup win, and so it's unlikely that many will be lumping on to him for the Gold Cup now.

Bobs Worth won the Gold Cup in 2013 - are his best days behind him?

Bobs Worth was the other Gold Cup winner in the field and ended up finishing only 8th. He hadn't been seen since finishing 5th in last year's Gold Cup but I would be of the slightly controversial opinion that we haven't seen Bobs Worth at his best since he won that tough, gritty Gold Cup in 2013 in a tough slog up the hill. Okay, so he kept on well in his Lexus win, but 3 of his 4 starts since his Gold Cup win have been his 3 most disappointing in his career, and unfortunately it's hard to oppose the theory that Bobs Worth's best days are behind him.

Home Farm fell at the first and so it's hard to have any real opinion on his run.

All in all, it was a strong renewal of the Lexus, with only the two Gold Cup winners disappointing, and the top 6 all putting in good runs with different things to take from them.

26th December Post-Racing Notes

A quick word on Friday's racing with a few notes to take, mainly on the action at Kempton: 

Harry Fry's Jollyallan showed real class to win the opener

Jollyallan ran very well to win the first and is a fine-looking horse - hopefully readers of the King George guide may have taken note of how profitable it is to follow Harry Fry at Kempton. The Mullins horse he beat, Sempre Medici, could also turn out to be a fine horse if there were to be a big improvement in his jumping, but the way he blundered the last hurdle summed up the huge progress still to be made in his jumping if he is to get anywhere. It was only his second start, but he has made clear jumping errors in both starts to date which would have set him back a great deal, and so he looks to have serious potential if Mullins can sort that out. The winner, on the other hand, has quotes as short as 16/1 for the Supreme after that impressive victory.

Stellar Notion also ran very well and found that little bit extra in the tank to win the novices handicap chase, but it should be noted that Knock House, the horse who put him under pressure approaching the line, brings his record at Kempton to a win and 3 places from 4 runs, and should definitely be watched in future starts at the course. 

It was a truly terrible renewal of the Feltham Novices Chase (now called the Kauto Star Novices Chase), with 4 of the 7 runners falling, and Coneygree winning at ease. With Dynaste and Long Run among the past winners of what is a very respected contest, it was a pity to see jumping errors from so many horses and the race itself was a bit of a farce. Coneygree finished 40 lengths ahead of Warden Hill in 2nd, and so didn't face any real test, but his jumping was extremely solid and he really looks like one to watch. He stayed on strongly and jumped fantastically, and was really the only upside to a bad, bad race.

Faugheen the Machine is now 5/4 Champion Hurdle favourite

In the Christmas Hurdle, Faugheen proved himself once more in possibly his most impressive display yet. He won effortlessly, tracking Blue Heron comfortably all the way around before taking the lead two out and clearing away to win by 8 lengths. He made a mistake jumping the last which may be a worry to his supporters, with slight jumping errors the only thing tarnishing his fantastic record to date. However, it's hard to take anything away from him, and it's clear to see that in Faugheen, Mullins really does have a machine. A Champion Hurdle featuring Faugheen, The New One and Jezki among others is a truly mouth-watering prospect - as we say so many times throughout the winter, roll on March!

A quick note on the action in Ireland before I finish up with the King George - at Leopardstown, Mullins' other exciting novice from last season, Vautour ran in the Grade 1 Racing Post Novices Chase, also bidding to defend an unbeaten record. The going was officially soft (and realistically very soft) and it was only the second time in his career that Vautour wouldn't have Ruby Walsh on board, as he was on the other side of the Irish Sea in Kempton, where he rode Faugheen in the Christmas Hurdle and Champagne Fever in the King George. Vautour's jumping was not impressive on Friday, with a slight mistake at the 3rd followed by a serious mistake at the 7th when he was very lucky to stay on his feet, and it took him a while to recover before he was back in a position where he'd like to be before the second last jump. When the pressure came on, though, Vautour didn't show up and it was Clarcam that won impressively with Vautour and Ted Veale in a dead-heat for 2nd.

Vautour disappointing but Clarcam an exciting prospect

So, where does this leave Vautour on the road to Cheltenham? Well, the going wouldn't have suited, and although he has won two races on soft to heavy in the past, both wins were pretty unspectacular - in other words, we don't see him at his incredible best unless the going is a bit better. Secondly, the mistake would have had a big impact on his run, and it certainly didn't help his case when Clarcam began to challenge. And thirdly, he wasn't beaten by a bad horse - Clarcam looks a very good prospect for Gordon Elliott, a very exciting novice. Willie Mullins has said that he has put a line through the run and that seems the general attitude from most punters too with Cheltenham in mind.

Also in Ireland, Gilgamboa won the feature race in Limerick, the Grade 2 Shannon Airport Novice Chase. This extremely impressive display was one of the highlights of Boxing Day/St Stephen's Day racing in Britain or Ireland and it seems that in Gilgamboa, Enda Bolger has a very good horse on his hands who is developing into a serious chaser, with two good wins over fences to his name from two starts. The Irish Arkle should be on the cards next and then we'll see where they go from there.

Finally, the King George was the big one at Kempton and Silviniaco Conti was at his brilliant best to win the race for a 2nd year in a row. He made virtually all the running and jumped superbly, and seems to be in the form of his life. There are still question marks for me over whether he's a Cheltenham horse, and he could turn out to be one of those fantastic horses which really deserves a Gold Cup but fails to ever win one simply because he's not suited to the course - only time will tell. 

Silviniaco Conti's in the form of his life as he wins second King George

Dynaste ran a great race to finish 2nd and he also seems to be in the form of his life after good displays in both the Betfair Chase and this, despite probably not appreciating how much the extra rain got into the ground on Friday. It will be interesting to see if connections are brave enough to send him to the Gold Cup. Al Ferof finished 3rd and showed his potential yet again. Champagne Fever ran well to compete with Conti for the lead all the way around, but faded away towards the finish and going by this evidence might be best over slightly shorter - disappointing for all those, including myself, who had hoped to see him in the Gold Cup this year. 

Unfortunately Cue Card couldn't put in the same performance as last season and a bad error on the 8th fence realistically was probably not the main reason he only managed 5th. Menorah was the real disappointment for me, and again it was probably a bad blunder that finished him off in the race, but he wasn't impressive up until that point either.

Anyway, they're just some notes and pointers after and extremely busy day of racing which may come in handy for entries into the tracker or Cheltenham ante post ventures. The 3 big names to take from Friday, though, without a doubt - Gilgamboa, Silviniaco Conti and Faugheen.

Cheltenham 2015 - Gold Cup

So, we may have left off back at Day 1, but let's skip ahead to the big one. 2014 was the year of the upset, as the race billed as a two-horse affair was won after a stewards inquiry by a 25/1 shot, with neither of the aforementioned two horses managing to place. What of next year? The betting markets are strong already, with shrewd punters keen to have themselves in a good position for Cheltenham's biggest event from a long way out.

At the top of the market is Bobs Worth 10/1, bidding to reclaim his 2013 crown. The horse is a serious trier and one who won't give up coming up that Cheltenham hill, but his form this season in my eyes has not been as strong as that of last year, nor have his performances been as eye-catching. One theory I heard was that the 2013 race, run in tough conditions, was a grueling affair for Nicky Henderson's stable figurehead, and may have taken a lot out of him. Admittedly, he had to fight up that hill to get in front, a lot for any horse, and he hasn't looked the same animal this year, but I'm not sure if I would put his loss down to a tough run. I would have to say that I think that age has caught up with last year's Cheltenham hero and he's definitely not a bet for next year, based both on his age and this season's form.

Lord Windermere (14/1 888Sport) follows Bobs Worth in the betting. This year's Gold Cup winner was given the lowest Timeform rating since Master Smudge in 1980, in which time only Best Mate has managed to retain the Gold Cup, so I wouldn't be backing Lord Windermere to do so at those odds.

Silviniaco Conti was this year's second favourite after falling at the third last in 2013. He ran a good race most of the way this year but couldn't keep a hold on it coming up the hill after the last, with the trio of Lord Windermere, On His Own and The Giant Bolster all travelling at a much quicker pace in the tough closing stages.

So where does the value lie in the 2015 ante-post markets? Luckily, there are two horses at relatively attractive odds which may be worth a small bet for the 2015 showpiece...

Firstly, from the yard of Willie Mullins, Champagne Fever (14/1 Bet365). The front-running grey was unbeaten at Cheltenham until coming second by a head in this year's Arkle to outsider Western Warhorse, having won the Champion Bumper in 2012 and the Supreme in 2013, beating, among others, Jezki and My Tent Or Yours in the latter. He had the class to hold off strong novice competition last year and backed up the form this year when it was time to go chasing. His trainer's record for under cooking his chasers may be a small concern, but not something I'd worry much about.

So, what can we take from his run in the Arkle? He jumped fantastically throughout, and ran a huge race for us to come to the conclusion that he needs a longer trip to really excel, and we could see something special when he does. His breeding would only give positive signs and he looked very comfortable when winning on his chasing debut at Punchestown over 2m 4f. All the indicators are that the plan is Gold Cup next year, with Ruby already commenting on how he's looking forward to riding him in the King George next Christmas if all goes to plan. King George to Gold Cup is a fairly natural progression, and it looks like that's the direction in which he'll be aimed.

Secondly, the horse which grabs my attention is this year's RSA winner O'Faolains Boy (16/1 Bet365). I first considered him on Friday night when I began to look at the 2015 festival and he was available at 33/1, but unfortunately since then his price has plummeted down to 16's at best. I would think that what caught most people's attention rather than the actual run in the RSA may have been Barry Geraghty's comments post-race. He claimed that O'Faolains Boy hadn't jumped well, never really traveled and is a lot better than he showed in the RSA. Those were hugely negtive comments from any jockey straight after winning a race at the festival, and it just shows how highly Geraghty thinks of the horse and how much he feels he must be capable of.

He has always been held in very high regard by trainer Rebecca Curtis and if reports that he tore a shoe of during the race are to be believed, he has to be a serious prospect for the 2015 Gold Cup.

With still another year and another season to go until the roar goes up around Prestbury Park and Britain crowns its best staying chaser, it remains to be seen what will become of these horses and indeed many of the other contenders by next season. Who knows, maybe by the time Gold Cup day comes around, Champagne Fever and O'Faolains Boy could be 100/1, or worse, non-runners, but that is the risk we take in ante post betting. But the dream of backing one of them at 16/1, only for it to win at odds-on - surely that's worth the risk?

As mentioned, Bet365 are at the time of writing offering the best odds on both of the two Gold Cup contenders mentioned. If you're interested in signing up for an account and receiving a free matched bet to the same amount as your first bet, please do so by clicking the following link:  

Cheltenham Festival... 2015 (Part 1)

The dust has settled after the Cheltenham festival and the Midlands National today provided distraction from the one and only subject that has taken over our minds and hearts over the last week. Goulanes was a worthy winner, providing a fourth consecutive victory in the race for the stable of David Pipe. Realistically, it can be all but impossible to cast your mind forward towards what are the last big hurrahs of the jumps season (Aintree and its Grand National, the Irish and Scottish Nationals, and Punchestown) when Cheltenham has taken over your thoughts and you've become borderline obsessive with it.

So, it's time to look ahead - not to Aintree, or Punchestown, but to one year onwards, back in the legendary Prestbury Park. On Tuesday 10th of March 2015, the home of jumps racing will once again be the venue for the four most atmospheric and spectacular days of top-class racing that you will find anywhere. Some people begin their long Cheltenham betting journey on the evening of the previous year's Gold Cup. I've left it 24 hours longer so that the emotions will fade and logic will prevail when having a quick look at the possibilities of 2015!

The opening race itself provided us with an impressive winner from the yard of Willie Mullins. Vautour tore the Supreme field apart, drawing clear in the finish and leaving the others for dust. There's no doubt that the punter with an interest in building his Cheltenham portfolio a full 12 months in advance will have Vautour on his radar.

Firstly, let's take a look at the trends. The form of the Supreme winner in the Champion Hurdle over the last 10 years: 35005- and in the Arkle: 342. I think that the trends here may back up my original opinion on this bet. Champagne Fever was last year's Supreme winner in what was a very strong race, but his front-running performance under Ruby Walsh wasn't as impressive as Vautour's ride of a similar nature. The issue is very simple; year after year, we find that novice form just doesn't turn out to be as strong as we expect when they're thrown in with their elders.

The example that I would take, rather than Champagne Fever, would be last year's Triumph Hurdle winner, Our Conor. His win on Gold Cup day 2013 oozed class, and we marveled at how he made the others looks normal; an at the time unbeaten Far West and promising newcomer Rolling Star. The answer was simple - the competition were, at best, normal. Our Conor went on to be a good horse, let there be no doubt about it, but, despite his fantastic run a year previously, he would not have won the Champion Hurdle in my opinion, even had he not taken a fatal fall.

Currently, we're looking at prices for Vautour of 8/1 for the Champion Hurdle and 5/1 for the Arkle (Paddy Power). Whether he stays hurdling or goes chasing, he will have to justify his form against the older generation next season to be a bet for me - and if this means missing out on the prices, so be it. If Mullins decides to go the Champion Hurdle route, I can't see him going off at very short odds on the day unless he has beaten current favourites The New One, My Tent Or Yours and Jezki by the time the festival comes around.

Moving on then to the Champion Hurdle. The prices at the moment are The New One 6/1, My Tent Or Yours 7/1, Jezki 7/1. I've explained why I don't think Vautour is a bet at this stage and stick by that one. A few outsiders might catch the eye - Calipto is 33/1 at the moment and Vaniteux is 25/1. The former was unlucky in the Triumph Hurdle but is hard to back here maybe for the same reason as Vautour - his form will have to be justified next season before we can go backing him. Vaniteux was 3rd behind Vautour in the Supreme, and the same argument stands. We've seen before that novices form does not live up to what we expect.

He interests me though... Nicky Henderson has a record of putting his big players into the Supreme. In recent years, My Tent Or Yours, Sprinter Sacre and Binocular are examples (none of whom won). It was only a late decision on their part to bring this horse to Cheltenham as has apparently only recently begun to mature. All of this would suggest that his improvement could be rapid next year and the prices will be cut on him quickly. And back we go to the old argument - novice form simply isn't solid enough.

However, 33/1 and 25/1 are big prices and I wouldn't put you off small e/w bets. This game is all about value and these odds seem long to me. Follow your gut. There are few feelings that rival having backed a horse at Cheltenham at massive odds and watching it go off at short odds on the day.

For anybody interested in building up a portfolio at the moment, this is not about "bankers" or anything like that. If that's your game, this betting isn't for you. This is about value, and betting in the knowledge that plenty of these horses may not even run, but there could be one in there that will put you in a nice position come March.

I still haven't addressed the main puzzle of the Champion Hurdle. Jezki, The New One, My Tent Or Yours... three strong horses for each of whom a case can be made. This is without mentioning the possibility of Annie Power running (with a mares allowance) and more novices such as Faugheen.

Hurricane Fly supporters will be shocked to hear of odds of 20/1 from SkyBet and Coral but such is the situation with the record-breaking superstar. The Fly's best days must be behind him, even if he would run a lot better with a bit more give in the ground than there was last Tuesday. Returning to the festival next year, Hurricane Fly will be 11 years old, and no horses won at this year's festival over the age of 10. Time has caught up on Mullins' hurdling hero and the glory days must come to an end.

This leaves us with the top 3. Firstly, My Tent Or Yours. This year, the ground suited him perfectly. Conditions are unlikely to be as ideal next year and one would wonder whether or not he's lost his chance. A case could be made that he's a bridle horse and simply not suited to the tough hill at Cheltenham - the jury's out on that one. After two failed attempts at winning over hurdles at the festival, Henderson may feel it's time to give up on that one and give the chasing a shot. He could well prove to be a good thing over fences and the Arkle could be a more successful venture for him. Bet365 and StanJames are the only bookmakers with the hindsight to price him up in this market, and 12/1 could be nice if you're interested.

The New One obviously ran a cracking race to finish 3rd after being badly impeded with Our Conor's fall, leaving jockey Sam Twiston-Davies with a lot of ground to recover, which he did patiently. Any clocking enthusiast will tell you that the ground he covered in the closing stages was immense and his efforts were recognised, making him the justified favourite for next year's race. 6/1 could be value and some may want to take it while it's hot. However, his weak spot is his hurdling and it hasn't showed any huge signs of improving. Also, a step up in the trip could be on the cards and he might not stick with the Champion Hurdle at all next year if 3 miles are calling.

However, he's not without competition, and even if we boldly eliminate My Tent Or Yours from the running, 7/1 (William Hill) seems a big price for Jezki, whose performance was flawless in winning. All of the talk surrounding the comeback of The New One when he looked to be dead and buried has taken away a lot from the praise that The New One deserves for running a fantastic race against arguably the strongest field of this year's festival. The ideal situation here would be that My Tent Or Yours would go chasing in the Arkle and The New One would take a step up in trip, leaving Jezki with considerably less opposition against whom to defend his crown.

Finally, a word on the Mares race. Next year could easily be one too many for Quevega and retirement is an ever-present possibility for the wonder-mare who has dominated this race. 2/1 or 3/1 as quotes for her to win yet again aren't good enough and I would be looking elsewhere. Unfortunately, the bookies haven't priced up the rest of the races yet but I have asked a few for quotes on Annie Power and will update once they give them to me.

My reasoning is that Mullins, after being the boss of this race for so many years, may want to keep a hold of his dominance over the Mares Hurdle, and Annie Power is the perfect weapon at his disposal with which to do so. Whether or not the owners will want to aim bigger that the Mares Hurdle I'm not sure, and chasing is a real possibility I would assume, but if she ran, I would be doubtful that there's another mare around to beat her over her perfect trip.

So much to say, and to think that I've only covered day one! I suppose that's the nature of the festival - so much brilliant racing crammed together, we could discuss it for hours on end. In fairness, the first day is one of the most eventful. I'll  be back in due time with more of the 2015 preview and the quotes that hopefully the bookmakers will get back to me with.