Across racing, certain jockeys perform better at some tracks
or in some conditions – like horses, they have experience, they have
preferences, they have different styles suited to different surroundings.
During the warm summer months on the flat, punters follow Richard Hughes around
the sharp turns and severe undulations of Goodwood – he’s considered an expert
at guiding horses through the many unexpected obstacles the Sussex track has to
offer.
Jumps racing is no different, and although many jockeys have
got good records at Cheltenham, one statistic stands out above the rest. 7 of
the Cheltenham festival’s 27 races are run over approximately 2 miles,
including some of the most prestigious Grade 1 events the racing calendar has
to offer in the Supreme Novices Hurdle, the Champion Hurdle, the Champion Chase
and the Arkle Chase.
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| Geraghty won the 2014 Champion Hurdle on Jezki (2m 1/2f) |
In the last 10 years, Barry Geraghty has ridden in all of
these races, and won most of them at some stage – Champion Chase winner in 2005
and 2010, Arkle winner in 2009 – but it’s in the last 5 festivals that Geraghty
has shone over 2m. His form over this trip at the festival since winning with
Big Zeb in the 2010 Champion Chase reads 2211116P. His unprecedented success
over 2 miles at the festival (16 runners, 7 wins and 3 places – 44% wins and
63% win/place) stands out like a sore thumb when we look through the stats, yet
is it a solid record?
At the 2012 and 2013 festivals, all four of his mounts
over this trip won, making a massive contribution towards his good record.
However, these horses were Sprinter Sacre (twice), Simonsig and Finians Rainbow
– 3 of the 4 were odds-on. You could argue on this basis that any jockey worth
his salt would have a strong record over this trip at the festival had they
been riding such horses.
For this reason, I want to delve deeper into this to see
whether or not Geraghty really is worth following over 2 miles at this year’s
festival.
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| Geraghty's first festival winner was Moscow Flyer over 2m. |
Firstly, the man himself: The County Meath-man rode his
first winner in 1997 and had his first festival success on-board Moscow Flyer
(over 2 miles) in the 2002 Arkle. His win strike rates for the calendar year
ranged from 9%-19% for the first 11 years of his career before hitting 21% in
2009, and since then they’ve only dropped below the 20 mark once, when 19% of his horses
won in the 2012 calendar year. 2014 was his best season yet in this regard, with 24% of his 496 rides winning, so he really seems to be at his best. Since his first Cheltenham victory back in 2002,
he’s had at least one winner at the festival each year.
In his career, he has enjoyed successes at Cheltenham but it
hasn’t been among his top tracks – 22 wins from 51 rides at Huntingdon since
the beginning of 2005 must be the most notable – yet he is one of the most
respected jockeys at this track, having ridden 31 festival winners in his
career.
As for the trip, he certainly loves riding over 2 miles. If
we include races run over 2m ½f just for the purposes of this particular
section, we’ll see 1,817 rides, and 378 wins giving him a 21% win strike rate.
Furthermore, a total of 822 made the frame, giving him a win/place strike rate
of 45%.
This is impressive in itself, but just wait until we get to
Cheltenham! Looking back over just 5 years at the track (since the beginning of the 2010
calendar year) his record over exactly 2 miles here is 9 wins and 3
places from 19 runners (47% wins, 63% win/places). Sure enough, this record
holds strong when we extend it back to the start of the 2005 calendar year,
with 12 wins and a further 4 places from 26 runners (46% wins, 62% win/place).
So, it would seem that when we extend the data to look at
not just the festival but all races at the track, the stats stay just as
strong, if not stronger, and confirm to us that Barry Geraghty is the man to
have your money on over 2 miles at Cheltenham.
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