2.35 Kempton - Pendil Novices Chase - 2m 4f - Grade 2
We did our individual horse profiles and notes for this one - as you read down through it, you would be forgiven for thinking that Irish Saint is the NAP of the week, until you reach Melodic Rendezvous. It's rare to have any horse in a race whose profile fits the race as much as either of theirs - to have two in the same race is simply unlucky.
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| Irish Saint's profile is as perfect as they come |
To recap quickly: Irish Saint is 2-2-0 at Kempton, has a good record on all ground except soft (it's soft at the time of writing), has a record of 3-1-1 with Sam Twiston-Davies, a record of 7-4-1 in fields of 7 runners or less, a record of 5-2-3 in January and February, 8-5-1 on right-handed tracjs and 4-2-1 on flat tracks. Other than the soft ground, his profile is perfection as far as today is concerned.
Melodic Rendezvous, then - never ran at Kempton, good records on all ground, especially heavy, 13-8-2 with Nick Scholfield, 9-6-1 in fields of 7 or less, 7-6-1 from December to February, 7-4-3 going right-handed. The only issues? 3-1-0 on flat tracks and he's better after a break of 31-60 days (he ran just 13 days ago).
So, who do we side with? Unfortunately, the bookies have them both at 2/1-ish (between 2/1 and 5/2) so there's no taking the each-way option. It's the textbook definition of a toss-up. I wouldn't put the value hunter off a reverse forecast, but it's going to be Irish Saint today.
SELECTION: IRISH SAINT 9/4
3.10 Kempton - Dovecote Novices Hurdle - 2m - Grade 2
The Grade 2
Dovecote Novices Hurdle attracts just five runners, not entirely surprising in
a race that has only features 6 or 7 runners in each of its last few renewals.
Nevertheless, it’s a strong race, with Irving, Forgotten Voice, Grumeti and
Sire De Grugy winning the last four.
Kavanaghs
Corner and Mister Green are two unusual runners and realistically would be two
unlikely winners – Kavanaghs Corner was 4th of 5 in a class 5 on his
ole start over hurdles (or indeed under rules) just 11 days ago. The fact that
he’s out again so quickly may suggest that connections have high hopes but it’s
hard to envisage him getting a result here.
Mister
Green has accumulated a massive 67 career starts between the flat turf and the
all-weather. He was 14th of 14 in his sole start over hurdles, in a
class 4 maiden all the way back in July 2012. Since then his form has read
0347178775899 – finishing in the bottom three on 10 of his 13 subsequent starts
would suggest that reverting to hurdles is simply an ambitious roll of the dice
by connections who simply don’t know what else to do with the horse.
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| Vago Collonges has the credentials to win this |
The other
three runners (The Grey Taylor, Days Of Heaven and Vago Collonges) are all of
some sort of interest. The market has Vago Collonges as a strong favourite at
5/4, and understandably so – he won both his starts in France in the 2012/13
season before being brought to the yard of Paul Nicholls, who ran him in two
decent bumpers at the end of that season
(a listed contest and a grade 2, in both of which he finished 2nd).
He wasn’t seen the following season and then finished 2nd in his
first two starts over hurdles, in class 3 novice contests. He dropped down in
class next time out to win at Taunton in a class 4, but did so in a style which
connections felt warranted a shot at the big-time, and so he went to Cheltenham
on trials day to run in a grade 2 contest, in which he finished 3rd.
The bare
form of the other two doesn’t feature anything of that class. The Grey Taylor
ran in four low-class bumpers last season, failing to win any of them, but got
off the mark on his first outing over hurdles at Wetherby, beating Chieftains
Choice who won on both of his next two starts before falling in the Betfair
Hurdle. He followed this up with another win in a class 4 and then a 2nd
in a class 4, both at that same track, before travelling to Musselburgh to
finish 2nd in a class 2 on the 1st of February.
Days Of
Heaven finished 3rd in his first two maidens, but it was 3rd
time lucky when he broke it at Ludlow before Christmas. He was beaten by
nothing of note on the first start, but the form from the second was much stronger; winner Different
Gravy has since won a listed race while 2nd Ballagh was 3rd
in a Grade 2 last week. After breaking his maiden, Days Of Heaven won again in
a class 4 at Doncaster at the end of January.
Vago
Collonges is without a doubt the most qualified with a graded place to his
name, and while the other two at the top of the market should provide some sort
of competition (both unexposed at this sort of class), he looks like the one to
be on, especially with his price still not odds on and there only being 2
each-way places on offer.
SELECTION: VAGO COLLONGES 13/10
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