Grimthorpe Chase Trends Analysis

The Grimthorpe Chase is a fascinating race from a trends perspective, with a large number of both simple and obscure trends having come to the fore in the last ten years, giving us an edge and assisting us from a betting perspective. Our flat-style trends analysis has proven a couple of times to be effective over jumps, and though it’s relatively unexposed away from the flat, we’re eager to try it out and see what kind of results we get, especially in strong trends races such as the Grimthorpe.

1. Place Last Time Out

Place LTO	Runners	Wins	Win%	Places	Place%	Win/Place	Win/Place%
First	11	3	27%	0	0%	3	27%
Second	12	1	8%	1	8%	2	17%
Third	12	1	8%	2	17%	3	25%
Fourth	7	1	14%	1	14%	2	29%
Fifth	8	0	0%	3	38%	3	38%
Sixth	3	0	0%	1	33%	1	33%
Seventh	7	1	14%	3	43%	4	57%
Eighth	3	0	0%	1	33%	1	33%
Fourteenth	1	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
Disqualified	1	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
Fell	3	0	0%	1	33%	1	33%
Pulled Up	10	1	10%	1	10%	2	20%
Unseated Rider	2	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%

Based on the statistics in the table above, we’ll be looking out for horses which finished 1^st, 4^th, 5^th, 7^th or 8^th, or which fell, last time out.

2. Market Position

Mrkt Pos	Runners	Wins	Win%	Places	Place%	Win/Place	Win/Place%
1	10	1	10%	2	20%	3	30%
2	7	4	57%	0	0%	4	57%
3	8	0	0%	1	13%	1	13%
4	10	1	10%	1	10%	2	20%
5	5	1	20%	1	20%	2	40%
6	9	0	0%	1	11%	1	11%
7	7	0	0%	2	29%	2	29%
8	6	0	0%	1	17%	1	17%
9	4	1	25%	1	25%	2	50%
10	7	0	0%	3	43%	3	43%
11	2	0	0%	1	50%	1	50%
12	3	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
13	1	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
14	1	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%

We’ll keep an eye on the top 2, 5^th, 7^th, 9^th, 10^th and 11^th in the market.

3. Age

Age	Runners	Wins	Win%	Places	Place%	Win/Place	Win/Place%
6	3	0	0%	1	33%	1	33%
7	6	0	0%	1	17%	1	17%
8	19	2	11%	5	26%	7	37%
9	28	4	14%	4	14%	8	29%
10	16	1	6%	1	6%	2	13%
11	5	1	20%	1	20%	2	40%
12	2	0	0%	1	50%	1	50%
13	1	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%

Points go to 6, 8, 9, 10, 11 and 12-year-olds here.

Form

4. 10 of the last 10 winners ran over 2m 7f+ last time out.

5. 9 of the last 10 winners ran in the last 50 days.

6. 10 of the last 10 winners had had 2-5 runs since August.

7. 8 of the last 10 winners were 3^rd or 4^th season chasers.

8. 9 of the last 10 winners had won a chase over 2m 7f+ at a left-handed track.

9. 10 of the last 10 winners had run in 13 or less handicap chases.

10. 10 of the last 10 winners had won 3 or less handicap chases.

The Big Table

Horse	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Total
Mon Parrain	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	7
Night In Milan	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	8
Super Duty	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	7
Samingarry	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	No	7
Drop Out Joe	Yes	Yes	No	No	No	Yes	No	No	Yes	Yes	5
Streams Of Whiskey	No	No	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	No	No	Yes	Yes	5
Theatre Queen	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	8
Farbreaga	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	10
Caulfields Venture	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	7
Aachen	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	9
Wayward Prince	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	7
William Money	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	10

So, our shortlist:

1. Fabreaga, William Money – 10
2. Aachen – 9
3. Theatre Queen, Night In Milan – 8

It’s risky to disregard Aachen at this stage as he only misses out based on his market positions, and market position is the only trend which can change between now and the beginning of the race (ie, a horse which is 8^th in the market now could easily be 6^th in the market at the off). However, we have our two winners and so our two bets:

0.5pts e/w on Fabreaga @ 16/1

0.5pts e/w on William Money @ 16/1