Hennessy Gold Cup Individual Horse Profiles & Notes

We've done our individual horse profiles and notes for the Hennessy Gold Cup at Leopardstown tomorrow; this will be updated later to analyse how each horse's profile fits tomorrow's conditions and decide our verdict on the race, but for now we'll just post the profiles and notes themselves for you to study. As always, it must be noted that only form from the UK and Ireland is included in the statistics.

Boston Bob

• Overall record: 18 runs – 9 wins – 4 places
• Record at Leopardstown is 3-2-0 – the wins came in a Grade 2 2m 4f Novices Hurdle in 2012 and a Grade 1 2m 5f Novices Chase in 2013, while the loss was when he finished 4^th in the Lexus on last time out on the 28^th December.
• Has a very strong record of 8-5-1 on ground which was soft to heavy or worse, but his record isn’t bad on better ground (10-4-3).
• Boasts a much stronger record over a shorter trip (11-8-2 over less than 3m) than today’s (7-1-2 over 3m+).
• Jockeys: PT Gallagher 1-1-0, Barry Geraghty 1-0-0, Paul Townend 5-3-0, Katie Walsh 1-0-1, Ruby Walsh 10-5-3
• Never finished outside of the places in a field of 12 or more (3-1-2, form of 312), but a record of 5-3-1 in fields of 7 or less is equally impressive (form of 11162).
• Never outside the places after a long break (100+ days), with a record of 4-3-1 and form of 1113.
• Fairly even record throughout the year with the exception of March (4-1-1). Form from November to December reads 1111324, form from January to February reads 3116, March is 12F6 and April reads F11.
• Record on flat tracks and those with slight undulations is 7-6-0, much stronger than 11-3-4 on undulating and very undulating tracks.

So, Boston Bob likes running around Leopardstown, ideally we would like the ground to be softer but it's not a worry, we would rather see him run over a shorter trip, Paul Townend riding is a plus, we would rather the field to be either smaller or bigger (but a non-runner would do), a long layoff is preferable but he ran just 42 days ago, and he likes flat tracks such as this one.

Carlingford Lough

• Overall Record: 22 runs – 7 wins – 6 places
• Record at Leopardstown 5-1-1 – 7^th in a 2m 1f handicap chase in 2012, 4^th in a Grade 1 2m 5f handicap chase in 2013, 1^st in a 3m Grade 1 novices chase in 2013, unseated in a 2m 5f Grade 1 novices chase in 2014, and 5^th in the 3m Grade 1 Lexus Chase last time out.
• Probably a preference for ground which is soft or better (15-6-4 compared to 7-1-2 on soft to heavy or worse).
• Jockeys: DJ Casey 1-0-0, NP Madden 3-0-1, AP McCoy 8-3-2, MP Walsh 10-4-3
• Slightly better record in small fields of 7 or less (4-2-1). 4-1-1 in fields of 8-11, 6-2-2 in fields of 12-15, 8-2-2 in fields of 16 or more.
• Very strong record of 7-4-1 and form of 1115P21 after a break of less than 30 days. Winless from 2 starts after a break of 200+ days (never ran after a break of 100-200 days).
• Definitely seems to peak in the summer form and carries decent record into the start of the season – 5-5-0 in July and August and 3-0-3 in September and October. This drops with a record of 8-1-2 from November to March. April and May is 5-1-1.
• Slight preference for right-handed tracks (12-5-3 compared to 10-2-3 on left-handed).
• 12-2-4 on flat and slightly undulating tracks not as strong as 10-5-2 on undulating and very undulating tracks.

Carlingford Lough would not welcome any more rain but the ground suits at the moment, and AP McCoy riding is a plus. However, we would rather he had had a more recent run, we would sooner back him in the late summer and early autumn, he prefers right-handed tracks and he also prefers undulating tracks. 

First Lieutenant

• Overall Record: 29 runs – 7 wins – 11 places
• 6-1-3 at Leopardstown – 1^st in a Grade 2 2m novices hurdle in 2010, 2^nd in a Grade 1 3m novices chase in 2011, 2^nd in a 3m Grade 1 Chase in 2012, and again in the same race (the Lexus Chase) in 2013, 3^rd in this race in 2014 and 6^th in  the Lexus in 2014.
• Record over less than 3m is 15-6-3, 3m is 8-0-4, and more than 3m is 6-1-4.
• Jockeys: DJ Casey 1-0-1, Bryan Cooper 8-1-5, Barry Geraghty 2-0-1, Andrew McNamara 2-1-0, RP McNamara 1-1-0, BT O’Connell 1-0-0, Davy Russell 14-4-4
• 18-2-8 means that he made the frame in 56% of his Grade 1 starts.
• 5-3-1 in fields of 12 or more is a good record, even if the sample size is a lot smaller than that of his 24-4-10 in fields of 11 or less.
• 13-3-8 after less than 30 days off the track is good, as is 9-3-2 after a break of more than 60 days (7-1-1 after a break of 31-60 days isn’t as strong).
• Seems to peak in March (4-2-2) and keeps a decent record in April (5-1-2).

His record at Leopardstown is decent, and is possibly best seen over a slightly longer trip than today's, Bryan Cooper riding is good for him and he has a strong record in Grade 1's. He would rather a bigger field and his break of 42 days prior to the race is far from ideal, while he seems to peak about one month after this race. 

Foxrock

• Overall Record: 15 runs – 5 wins – 5 places
• Leopardstown record: 5-1-2 – unseated rider on his maiden, 2^nd in 2m 4f maiden hurdle, 3^rd in Grade 1 3m novices chase in 2013, 2^nd in 3m Grade 2 handicap chase in 2014, 1^st in 2m 5f Grade 1 handicap chase in 2015.
• 5-2-3 on soft to heavy ground or worse better than 8-2-3 on soft ground or better.
• Very strong record of 4-3-0 over this trip.
• Jockeys: AP Heskin 4-1-2, Danny Mullins 7-4-2, MP Walsh 1-0-1, Katie Walsh 1-0-0, Ruby Walsh 1-0-0
• 11-5-4 after 8-30 days off the track with form of 23113119321, very strong compared to 2-0-1 and 25 after a longer break.
• Peaks in January and February with a record of 5-3-2 and form of 23111 compared to 2-1-0 in March and 7-1-3 before Christmas.
• 2-1-1 with a tongue tie might be worth noting.

Also holds a decent record at Leopardstown, he would prefer for the ground to get a good bit softer than it currently is but loves this trip and has preferable jockey AP Heskin on board. His 21 days off before the race suits us, and he seems to peak at this time of year.

Home Farm

• Overall Record: 14 runs – 3 wins – 1 place
• 6-0-0 at Leopardstown – form of 9P5575, with the first start over hurdles and the other five over fences.
• Only success has come on ground between yielding and soft (8-3-1), record over ground better than yielding is 2-0-0 and record on ground worse than yielding is 4-0-0.
• Jockeys: DJ Casey 10-2-1, BM Cash 1-0-0, Barry Geraghty 1-0-0, Davy Russell 1-1-0, Paul Townend 1-0-0
• 3-0-0 in fields of 7 or less, 11-3-1 in fields of 8 or more.
• Very strong record after a while off the track – 3-2-0 after 120+ days off with form of 131 compared to 10-1-1 after 119 or less days off with form of 95P51357PF.
• Seems to start the season well – 4-2-0 in November drops suddenly to 5-0-0 in December and 1-0-0 in January.
• Has performed much better on right-handed than left-handed tracks – 6-3-1 and 1513P1 going right-handed compared to 8-0-0 and 79P5357F going left-handed.
• Better on undulating tracks; 6-0-0 on flat tracks (all Leopardstown), 4-1-1 with slight undulations and 4-2-0 on undulating tracks.

Home Farm has been very unsuccessful at Leopardstown, but should like the going today. DJ Casey wouldn't necessarily have been our choice of jockey for him, but the field size should suit provided there are no non-runners. We would sooner back him after a long break and early on in the season, while he has had no success at all on left-handed or flat tracks.

Lord Windermere

• Overall Record: 18 runs – 6 wins – 3 places
• 7-1-1 at Leopardstown – form of 4123767 at the track, most recently 7^th in the Lexus Chase on December 28^th. 1-0-0 over hurdles at Leopardstown, 6-1-2 in chases.
• 4-1-0 on good  to yielding or better, 14-5-3 on good to soft or worse so a preference for some sort of cut in the ground.
• 12-4-3 over less than 3m, winless over today’s trip of 3m but 3-2-0 over further so the trip isn’t the source of any doubt.
• Dougie Costello 2-0-0, TJ Doyle 10-4-3, RP McNamara 1-0-0, Davy Russell 5-2-0
• 2-0-0 in fields of 16 or more runners, 16-6-3 in smaller fields so a field of 15 or less is preferable.
• Seems to run better after a recent run; 13-6-2 after less than 60 days off the track prior to the start. 5-0-1 after more than 60 days off suggests that he needs a run to dust off the cobwebs after a long break.
• Peaks in March without a doubt – 3-3-0 in that month. Unfortunately, he’s 3-0-0 in February with form of 436 in the month.
• 11-1-2 on flat tracks or those with slight undulations doesn’t compare to 7-5-1 on undulating and very undulating tracks.

He should get the ground he'd want today, and the trip should be fine if slightly short for him. Davy Russell riding is a positive, the field size is absolutely fine, and he has had less than 60 days off the track. However, he doesn't tend to peak until next month and doesn't seem to enjoy flat tracks.

On His Own

• Overall Record: 22 runs – 8 wins – 2 places
• Record at Leopardstown: 3-1-2, 1^st in a bumper at the track on his first start, brought down in a Grade 2 3m handicap chase in 2011, 2^nd in the Grade 1 3m Lexus Chase in December.
• His best record is on softer ground – 9-6-1 on soft or worse, compared to 13-2-1 on yielding to soft or better.
• Record over less than 3 miles is 6-3-0, 3m is 5-2-1, and further is 11-3-1 – so his record over a trip further than today’s isn’t great, but today’s trip isn’t of any worry.
• Jockeys: DJ Casey 2-1-1, PT Gallagher 1-1-0, O Greenall 1-0-0, Brian Hughes 3-1-0, Denis O’Regan 1-0-0, RP Quinlan 1-1-0, Paul Townend 7-2-1, Ruby Walsh 6-2-0
• Record is much better in smaller fields (11 or less) with a record of 11-6-1 and form of 11411161862 compared to a record of 11-2-1 and form of 04PB1FF5612 in fields of 12 or more runners.
• Seems to peak in January (4-3-0) and February (3-2-0), with form after that (March-May) reading 9-2-1 and before (October-December) that reading 6-1-1.
• Probably has a preference for right-handed tracks (8-5-0 compared to 14-3-2 on left-handed tracks).

On His Own obviously likes Leopardstown and will be hoping for slightly more rain before the off. The trip should suit perfectly, the field size is as we would want, and this is the perfect time of year to be backing him. However, Ruby's record on him isn't great and he's better running right-handed.

Texas Jack

• Overall Record: 21 runs – 6 wins – 3 places
• Leopardstown record: 5-1-2 – 6^th in a novice hurdle in 2012, 312 in Grade 1 and 2 novice chases in the 2012-13 season, and 4^th in this race last year.
• Seems to like good ground; he’s 4-2-0 on good and good to yielding,  but there’s nothing wrong with his record of 15-4-3 on soft or worse either so we won’t pay too much attention to that.
• Jockeys: Paul Carberry 16-5-3, DJ Condon 2-0-0, Barry Geraghty 1-0-0, JP McKeown 1-1-0, Ruby Walsh 1-0-0
• 2-2-0 in fields of 16+ is good compared to 7-1-1 in fields of 8-15. 12-3-2 in fields of 7 or less is also a fairly decent record however.
• Seems to run well after a short break (3-1-1 after less than 15 days off the track).
• Starts the season well (2-1-1 in October) but that form drops to 5-2-0 in November and 3-0-1 in December.

Paul Carberry riding is a plus, the field size isn't perfect and his supporters should be hoping for some non-runners, he has had a longer break than we would like and his best months of the season are probably behind him at this stage. He's hard to back today.

So, baSed on the above, the first horses we'll eliminate are coincidentally those considered outsiders anyway - Home Farm, Carlingford Lough, and Texas Jack. It's also hard to keep Lord Windermere in the equation against some of these in these conditions; he should put in a much better run come March at the festival. This leaves us with Boston Bob, First Lieutenant, Foxrock and On His Own. Interestingly, the horse ticking the most boxes above has the longest odds of these four - Foxrock, currently available at 13/2.

Although we noted that we would want the ground to get a lot softer, his record of 2-1-1 on good to yielding suggests that he could put in a good performance on this ground as well, and we'll hoping that he can do so and grab a place (or a win) today. He has shown a certain level of consistency over his last couple of starts, finishing 3rd in the Grade 2 Paddy Power Handicap Chase and then winning the Grade 1 Boylesports Handicap Chase, and he definitely deserves respect against these.

FOXROCK E/W 13/2