Saturday Preview & Selections

1.50 Newbury – Betfair Home Of The Price Rush Handicap Hurdle – Class 2 – 3m

Jonjo O’Neill won this race last year with Upswing and after some very dodgy form this season, the stable is back on track with 20 of his 44 runners in the last 3 weeks having made the frame. Today, he runs Merry King, whose last 9 starts have been in graded races but who hasn’t run over hurdles since April 2012, and Milan Bound, the choice of AP McCoy, who carries just 10-9 having lost by a head last time out and looks sure to be on terms today.

Araldur was over 8 lengths behind Milan Bound in 4^th that day and would probably prefer a smaller field or a left-handed track.  Top weight is Milansbar who loves soft ground but again might prefer a smaller field; his recent consistency must be noted though.

David Pipe runs Shotavodka, who holds a good record at the track and a good record this month – his recent form has been very questionable but he might be liable to bounce back to his old self. The other Pipe runner is Bygones Sovereign whose form was terrible until a narrow win at Chepstow before Christmas; he’s more fancied in the market but I’m not interested in him today.

Top Cat Henry has placed a lot recently but at a slightly lower level and Bally Beaufort was slightly less impressive last time out than in his 2^nd at Ascot in December. Running after long breaks are Provo, Rydon Pynes and Rigour Back Bob – the latter does well in big fields like this one, Provo has potential and seems suited by the race and so does Rydon Pynes, who does well after a break and seems to peak over the first couple of months of the calendar year.

Tempest River did well last time out and has to be considered a possible contender based on that – she relishes soft ground like today’s and Daryl Jacob taking the ride is a plus.

Milan Bound is in with a real chance but at 3/1 at best, some each-way stability is preferred in a tough race. Milansbar has shown consistency of late but the handicapper has been far from kind. Rydons Pynes very narrowly misses out on a bet but it’s Tempest River for me, taking into account her good run last time out and her strong record of making the frame 7 times from 8 runs on soft ground. For our longshot bet of the day, we’ll be hoping Shotavodka can bounce back to form as the only track winner in the field and in conditions he’ll love.

SELECTION: TEMPEST RIVER E/W 18/1

LONGSHOT BET OF THE DAY: SHOTAVODKA E/W 33/1

2.05 Warwick – Kingmaker Novices Chase – Grade 2 – 2m

Vibrato Valtat is around 3^rd favourite in the Arkle ante post  having made a good start to his chasing career, with form of 1211. This includes victory in  the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novice Chase at Sandown in December, before winning a Grade 2 last time out at Kempton at Christmas. His jumping to date has been above average in a year when the jumping skill of the novice chasers has been questionable and he is on paper the horse most qualified to put in a big performance today.

Kings Lad blundered badly and unseated on his chasing debut at Exeter in November but was a different horse four days later at Fontwell, jumping very well to win that class 3 contest, and then following up on this with another win at the same level last month. His wins have come over further than this and the JLT over 2m 4f would be the assumed target if he was to prove his class by the time the festival comes around in March.

Top Gamble would be an outsider at this rate were he to run in either the Arkle or the JLT, but he’s probably considered Vibrato Valtat’s main challenger today. His record of 3 wins from 3 starts over fences to date speaks for itself, unchallenged in his first two starts but he had to work a bit harder last time out and did so gamely. Today’s race will be a much tougher test but Top Gamble has shown potential.

Master Springsong was 3^rd of 4 in his sole start over fences in a Grade 2 at Doncaster last month. He faded from 5 out that day and more will definitely be needed if he is to contest today.

A win today would see Turn Over Sivola become an Arkle contender but his chase starts to date have been full of jumping errors – His win on his debut was full of errors, as was his 3^rd of 3 next time out, he blundered the 2^nd last when 2^nd in November, and was 3^rd last time out with less errors in a class 3. Even if his jumping holds up, this is a much tougher task than any has undertaken in the past.

SELECTION: VIBRATO VALTAT 6/5

2.25 Newbury – Denman Chase – Grade 2 – 3m

We've done our unique individual horse profiles and notes for this race, which can be viewed here

Harry Topper was last year’s winner and was very impressive when beating Al Ferof in tough conditions, but he has been pulled up twice since and will need to return to his form 12 months ago to get a similar result today – however, that’s far from impossible considering the preferred conditions.

He was pulled up in the Betfair Chase in November along with Taquin Du Seuil and Double Ross, both contenders today but both of whom are likely to find this difficult. Double Ross seems to be better over a shorter trip and connections might want to consider campaigning him over 2m 4f considering their lack of success over further. Taquin Du Seuil could show improvement for being ridden by AP McCoy again today, but he has had jumping issues and that needs to be sorted.

Coneygree won a terrible Feltham Novices Chase when almost everything fell, but jumped well in the process and looked a smart type. If he makes the running today like he did on that occasion he may have the class to fend off these rivals. Houblon Des Obeaux finished 2^nd in the Hennessy here, the form from which has been rock solid, and Venetia Williams’ charge lost nothing in defeat last time out.

Unioniste is another serious contender based on his impressive win last time out, and although this is a step up in class, it would be foolish to write him off.

I'd suggest you use the horse profiles to do more research into the 6 runners.

SELECTION: HARRY TOPPER E/W 7/1

2.40 Warwick – OLBG Mares Hurdle – Listed – 2m 5f

Glens Melody contests this again after winning it last year before finishing 2^nd behind the great Quevega at Cheltenham, and she looks to be aiming to achieve the same this season before going to the festival and, if everything plans out the way Mullins would hope, finishing 2^nd behind Annie Power. Her lack of wins since this race last year can mainly be put down to the high class races she’s been running in – two Grade 1’s, a Grade 2 which has been upgraded to Grade 1 status this year, and a Grade 3 in which she has finished 2^nd. Running at listed level, it would be no surprise to see her produce the goods en route to the festival.

One source of competition today is the intriguing Mickie, who has been chasing this season and returns to hurdles today in first-time cheek pieces so is definitely a liability where Glens Melody is concerned. Emily Gray is one of those frustrating horses to follow who can never quite seem to get her nose in front but consistently finishes there or thereabouts (her form this season reads 3222, mostly in small fields and at this level at highest).

Mayfair Music for Nicky Henderson is in some way interesting, having won at Doncaster impressively at the end of last season before weakening in the closing stages to finish 4^th at Kempton when probably needing the run in tough conditions on her sole start this season.

Fairytale Theatre has been beaten twice by Mayfair Music and also by Kafleur so she’s probably not of massive interest today, while the form from Kilronan High’s 2^nd on her debut over hurdles has held up, with the winner winning a Grade 2 at Ascot last month.

There’s plenty of tough competition and interesting contenders, but I’m siding with last year’s winner based on the company she has been keeping since the 2014 race.

SELECTION: GLENS MELODY 10/11

3.00 Newbury – Game Spirit Chase – Grade 2 – 2m 1f

The main talking point of the day is the return to the track of the ever-popular Sire De Grugy, winner of last year’s Queen Mother Champion Chase at the festival but side-lined since then with issues with his hip while recovering from an operation to remove bone chips in his ankles. 287 days later, Sire De Grugy returns to the track for what is sure to be his sole start before attempting to defend his Champion Chase crown.

Today, Sire De Grugy faces some interesting opposition and it’s fairly hard to see how the race will pan out – Uxizandre and Mr Mole have both been known to make the running in the past, as has Upsilon Blue. The latter has been consistent in handicap company, making the frame in his last 6 starts and winning the last two, but consistency to the same level will not be enough today against these rivals.

Uxizandre could easily get involved in a battle with Mr Mole up front and set things up nicely for Sire De Grugy. He’s a real contender for the Queen Mother and a win today, or a respectable performance behind the reigning champion, would put him right up the top of the market. He’s a great horse on his day but ran terribly on his last start In the Grade 1 Paddy Power Dial-a-bet Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. One key factor may be his obvious preference for small fields (7 runners or less), in which his record reads 5 wins from 6 starts.

This is an attribute which he shares with Mr Mole, whose record under the same conditions reads 5 wins from 7 starts. He’s not strongly fancied for the Champion Chase, with the Grand Annual a likely target. He’s in fine form at the moment, winner on all of his last three starts, the last two of which were on soft ground similar to today’s. He’s interestingly the choice of AP McCoy, yet there may be question marks over whether he’s up to this level.

Karinga Dancer makes up the numbers and it’s hard to see how he could do much else than make up the numbers – his questionable jumping seems to have improved based on his performance when 3^rd at Cheltenham last time out but it’s going to be tough for him considering that he has never had any success above handicap level and this is a competitive grade 2.

There’s only one horse that the general racing public want to see win, but from a betting perspective, this is a disaster, and definitely best left watched.

MR MOLE 10/3 (NO BET)

3.35 Newbury – Betfair Hurdle – Grade 3 Handicap – 2m

Here we’ve got a 24-runner minefield  but a very interesting one with plenty of runners we’ll be keeping an eye on, including…

Wicklow Brave – a horse I followed last season right up to a fairly unlucky 6^th in the Supreme at Cheltenham, but his form since then has been very disappointing, going out like a light next time out at Fairyhouse before falling at Punchestown and showing nothing in two starts this season, finishing 8^th of 8 last time out when dropping back to a listed race.

Calipto – one of the hard-luck stories of last year’s festival, hampered in the Triumph before Daryl Jacob lost his irons. He then went on to finish 3^rd in the Juvenile Hurdle at Aintree but ran badly in a class 2 on his reappearance at Cheltenham in October. He dons a hood and a tongue tie today and is certainly liable to bounce back to form.

Cheltenian – 4^th in this race last year, Cheltenian then pulled up in the Vincent O’Brien at the festival but ran a good 4^th at Aintree and then 3^rd at Punchestown. He was fairly disappointing when 3^rd at Doncaster on his reappearance, but behind two good horses.

Activial –fairly unexposed over hurdles, he was well fancied for the Ladbroke on his sole start this season and ended up finishing 3^rd. He had plenty to find with Calipto at Aintree last year but could put in a big race today.

Jolly’s Cracked It – jumping errors were almost eliminated when he finished 2^nd to Lami Serge in a Grade 1 last time out, and although he may have some more maturing to do, he looks to have real potential.

Balgarry – his run in the Ladbroke was respectable considering an absence of over 1000 days from the racecourse, and he showed improvement when 2^nd at Sandown last month. If his progress continues he could put in a big run today.

This is definitely not a big betting race for me, but if I was going to have a go, I’d be siding with Calipto or Balgarry.

CALIPTO E/W 15/2

BALGARRY E/W 20/1