BetBright Chase Trends Analysis

The BetBright Chase attracts 16 runners, meaning four each-way places for the eager punters waiting to analyse the race in hunt of value. Our trends analysis has thrown up many nice results in similar race on the flat, and we decided to bring it back before the beginning of the flat season to try it out on a few races over jumps.

The first three sections will focus on place last time out, age and market position – we’ve added in age as an extra section as we analyse the starting stalls on the flat. Also, while we used to look back over 15-16 years, we’re now keeping it down to 12 years to focus on the most relevant data.

1. Place Last Time Out

Place LTO	Runners	Wins	Win%	Places	Place%	Win/Place	Win/Place%
First	39	7	18%	6	15%	13	33%
Second	23	1	4%	5	22%	6	26%
Third	18	1	6%	3	17%	4	22%
Fourth	15	0	0%	5	33%	5	33%
Fifth	13	2	15%	1	8%	3	23%
Sixth	8	0	0%	1	13%	1	13%
Seventh	13	1	8%	1	8%	2	15%
Eighth	3	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
Ninth	3	0	0%	1	33%	1	33%
Tenth	2	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
Eleventh	4	0	0%	1	25%	1	25%
Thirteenth	2	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
Fourteenth	2	0	0%	1	50%	1	50%
Fell	3	0	0%	1	33%	1	33%
Pulled Up	15	0	0%	1	7%	1	7%
Slipped Up	1	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
Unseated Rider	2	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%

So, based on the data above, we’re looking out for horses which finished in the top 2, 4^th, 5^th, 9^th or 11^th or fell last time out.

2. Age

Age	Runners	Wins	Win%	Places	Place%	Win/Place	Win/Place%
6	8	0	0%	2	25%	2	25%
7	31	2	6%	6	19%	8	26%
8	43	5	12%	9	21%	14	33%
9	36	2	6%	4	11%	6	17%
10	29	1	3%	4	14%	5	17%
11	12	1	8%	0	0%	1	8%
12	5	1	20%	1	20%	2	40%
13	2	0	0%	1	50%	1	50%

Based on this, we’re focusing on 6-8yos and on 12-13yos.

3. Market Position

Mrkt Pos	Runners	Wins	Win%	Places	Place%	Win/Place	Win/Place%
1	13	2	15%	3	23%	5	38%
2	13	2	15%	6	46%	8	62%
3	10	1	10%	1	10%	2	20%
4	19	3	16%	6	32%	9	47%
5	10	0	0%	1	10%	1	10%
6	12	2	17%	0	0%	2	17%
7	14	1	7%	3	21%	4	29%
8	12	0	0%	3	25%	3	25%
9	11	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
10	12	0	0%	2	17%	2	17%
11	7	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
12	10	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
13	7	1	14%	1	14%	2	29%
14	5	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
15	5	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
16	2	0	0%	1	50%	1	50%

We’ll keep an eye on the top 2, 4^th, 6^th, 7^th, 8^th and 16^th in the market.

Recent Form

4. 9 of the last 10 winners had run in 9 or fewer handicap chases

5. 7 of the last 10 winners had won over 3 miles or further.

6. 8 of the last 10 winners had won a class 2 race or higher.

7. 9 of the last 10 winners had won a chase at a right-handed track.

The Big Table

Now, which of this year’s runners fit these trends?

Horse	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	Total
Rajdhani Express	No	Yes	No	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	4
Rocky Creek	No	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	4
Fox Appeal	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	7
Le Reve	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	7
Godsmejudge	No	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	4
The Rainbow Hunter	No	No	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	3
Easter Day	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	6
What A Warrior	No	Yes	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	4
Lost Legend	Yes	Yes	No	No	No	Yes	Yes	4
Bally Legend	No	No	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	3
Ardkilly Witness	No	No	No	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	3
Renard	Yes	No	No	No	No	No	Yes	2
Chartreux	No	No	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	4
Tenor Nivernais	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	No	Yes	5
Ballinvarrig	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	6
Tap Night	No	Yes	No	Yes	No	Yes	No	3

So, our shortlist:

1.       Fox Appeal 7/1, Le Reve 9/1 – 7

2.       Easter Day 9/2, Ballinvarrig 14/1 – 6

3.       Tenor Nivernais 14/1 – 5

And our bets:

0.5pts e/w on Fox Appeal @ 7/1

0.5pts e/w on Le Reve @ 9/1