1.15 - Spring Juvenile Hurdle - Grade 1 - 2m
Willie Mullins will be hoping to keep Kalkir’s Triumph Hurdle hopes alive in the Grade 1 Gala Retail
Spring Juvenile Hurdle where he faces some interesting competition from the
Meade and Elliott yards, among others. Kalkir
impressed a great deal visually on his Grade 3 Irish debut in November at
Fairyhouse, and so he went off 4/7 favourite for a Grade 2 at Leopardstown on
St Stephens Day, when he finished 2nd behind Fiscal Focus on very
testing ground.
He beat Prussian
Eagle in 3rd that day, who has run since, finishing 2nd
of 6 at Gowran last month behind impressive French import Dicosimo. Charles
O’Brien’s charge has shown a fair level of consistency in his last 4 runs over
hurdles, with form of 2132.
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| Kalkir will hope to win today ahead of the Triumph Hurdle |
Vercingetorix ran
well on the flat in France under Andre Fabre, with form of 5331414466. He never
ran at any level higher than listed, in which races his form read 4466. After
moving to the yard of Gordon Elliott, he won very nicely on his hurdling debut
at Limerick last time out and hasn’t been seen since.
Chatham House Rule
ran four times on the flat and then finished way down the field behind Kalkir on his Grade 3 hurdling debut.
He followed this up with a win in a maiden hurdle at Punchestown on New Year’s
Eve. Petite Parisienne was a decent
runner-up on that day, in his Irish debut. His form in France was 3132, the
highlight probably a listed 3rd.
Officieux has
shown improvement in 3 starts to date to break his maiden last time out at
Fairyhouse last month, but this will be a much tougher task. Lettre De Cachet has only been seen on
the flat in the past, with 5 starts in maidens, breaking his maiden last time
out at Navan. I’ll Be Your Clown is
the outsider of the field and understandably so, having been well below Grade 3
standard on his debut and performing better last time out in a 5k maiden.
It looks more than likely that Kalkir will pick up this prize en route to Cheltenham, but if it’s
value that we’re looking for, Prussian
Eagle seems a big price at 50/1 considering his consistency
over his last few starts. It seems unlikely that he’ll be able to reverse his
form with Kalkir, but I wouldn’t be
surprised to see him land a place and 50/1 is simply much too big in my
opinion; he’ll be today’s longshot bet. We’ll have to hope that there are no
non-runners so that we will have three each-way places.
LONGSHOT OF THE DAY:
PRUSSIAN EAGLE E/W 50/1
2.15 - Deloitte Novices Hurdle - Grade 1 - 2m 2f
Alvisio Ville won here on his Irish debut, which was also
his hurdling debut, and suffice to say he looked like the real deal in doing
so. Yet another Willie Mullins import with serious class, serious potential and
serious style, there’s absolutely no doubt that he deserves a chance at Grade 1
level after winning a low-level maiden so impressively. The form from that
maiden is neither outstanding nor terrible; Baily Cloud, who was 5 ½ lengths
behind in 2nd, unseated at his next shot at breaking his hurdle,
then placed twice, while Aengus (3rd) broke his maiden next time
out.
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| Nichols Canyon is 1 of 4 Mullins runners in this contest |
Sempre Medici finished 2nd behind Jollyallan at
Kempton on Boxing Day, and could be an excellent horse if he sorted out his
jumping issues. Also from the Mullins yard is Nichols Canyon, who placed in a
Grade 3 on his final start on the flat before taking to hurdles, winning his
maiden and then winning a Grade 1 at Fairyhouse before unseating in his next
Grade 1 attempt over Christmas at this track last time out. The least fancied
of today’s Mullins runners, Mckinley was pulled up that day but subsequently
won a Grade 1 at Naas.
Identity Thief is unbeaten from two starts but this is a
real jump up in class and he could find it tough, and Sub Lieutenant has shown
some good form but this is a competitive race and it could turn out to be a bit
too much for him. Blair Perrone ran well to win his maiden here over Christmas,
beating Silver Concorde in 2nd but he definitely suggested that he’s
not up to this standard when 5th of 6 in a Grade 2 last time out.
Dermot Weld’s two runners complete the field – Silver Concorde
was fantastic in bumpers last season, winning the Champion Bumper at the
Cheltenham Festival and coming 2nd in the Grade 1 Champion NHF race
at Punchestown, but he’s held on the Blair Perrone form and will have to improve
today. Windsor Park also had good form in bumpers and on the flat and won his
maiden over hurdles here over 2m 4f, but was 4th of 7 in his last
start in a Grade 2.
Alvisio Ville may be considered yet another Mullins banker
by some, but he might have more to prove and, as is the theme of the day, we
might go looking for some each-way value instead of lumping on the favourite.
The other three from the Mullins yard all have decent form to their names and
it would be no surprise to see the Closutton trainer take home this prize,
among others today.
I could see Sempre Medici put in a big run if his jumping
was to improve but it’s a big if and so I’m between the top two in the market;
Nichols Canyon looks like a nice each-way shot at 11/2 (Paddy Power, StanJames)
in a really tough betting race – small stakes are a must here.
SELECTION: NICHOLS CANYON E/W 11/2
2.45 - Flogas Novices Chase - Grade 1 - 2m 5f
Valseur Lido is yet another short-priced Mullins favourite –
the man’s dominance is relentless – in the 2m 5f Flogas Novices Chase, having
won both of his chase starts to date, including the Grade 1 Drinmore Novices
Chase at Fairyhouse in November last time out. Apache Stronghold was some 8
lengths behind him in 2nd that day, with The Tullow Tank another 14
lengths back in 5th place.
The former is a horse I was following around the end of last
season, after he caught the eye when winning well at Navan last November and
lost nothing in defeat to Vautour at the Punchestown festival. His form thus
far this season over fences has been decent; 2nd in 2 Grade 1’s in
his last two starts, beating The Tullow Tank both times and Shanahans Turn on
the more recent of the two. I would have slight concerns, however, that he
peaks before Christmas and I’m not sure that he will continue to run to this
standard and consistency throughout the spring.
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| Valseur Lido is the short-priced Mullins favourite, but there's interesting opposition |
Draycott Place makes little appeal today after running three
times against horses in this race and failing to put up a fight on any occasion. Rule
The World could put in a decent run for Mouse Morris, 2nd on both of
his last 2 starts, but he hasn’t managed to emulate his career highlight of
coming 2nd in the Neptune at the 2013 festival, unplaced in all four
Grade 1 starts since.
Mullins’ other two runners are both interesting; import
Jarry D’Honneur ran very well to win last time out on only his second start on
Irish soil and it will be interesting to see him take the jump up to this level, while I
would expect Adriana Des Mottes to take very well to Leopardstown on her first
start on a flat track. She will love the soft ground and would welcome more
rain, while Ruby riding her is a definite plus.
The other very interesting runner is quick-improving Le Vent
Dantan, an impressive winner of a Beginners Chase over Christmas here when he
brought his record at the track to 2 from 2. His jockey will also be a bonus
(Davy Russell), while he enjoys fields around this size. He will also welcome a
cut in the ground.
Mullins will be expecting to win with Valseur Lido, but I
wouldn’t mind siding with an each-way option and it’s between Adriana Des
Mottes and Le Vent Dantan for me. Both are around the 8/1 mark and it’s a real
toss-up between the two – a tough situation where we’ll be very unlucky if the
one we don’t back comes home! Le Vent Dantan’s course form makes him the
slightly more attractive option for me.
SELECTION: LE VENT
DANTAN E/W 8/1
Yet another Grade 1 (what a day!) and as is the norm, some of the Lexus runners return to Leopardstown for the Hennessy Gold Cup, while others are heading straight to Cheltenham or other end-of-season targets. Out again today are On His Own (2nd), Boston Bob (4th), Carlingford Lough, First Lieutenant and Lord Windermere (5th, 6th and 7th), as well as Home Farm who fell that day.
Based on the profiles, the market more or less has this one right, with the more fancied horses based on our statistics sitting comfortably at the top of the betting. Texas Jack and Home Farm make little appeal, while I feel that Lord Windermere's day will come in March (not saying that I think he'll win the Gold Cup, but his performances should improve come his preferred month at his preferred track).
Our post-racing notes from the Lexus make interesting reading here; the problems outlined with On His Own's jumping would make me hesitant to back him, as Leopardstown last time out seemed to bring out the problems at their worst since the Thyestes Chase last year. Boston Bob put in a very good run that day and should definitely appreciate that the ground is that bit drier today, so he's certainly in with a shout. First Lieutenant could possibly have had a better finishing position had he not hampered the last and lost his motion.
However, the horse I'm siding with today for an each-way bet didn't run in the Lexus, but instead came 2nd in the Grade 2 Paddy Power Handicap Chase the previous day, and went on to win the Grade 1 Boylesports Handicap Chase a few weeks ago. Foxrock has shown real potential in these two starts and the conditions suit very well today based on his profile, so 13/2 looks like decent each-way value.
I'd encourage you to read the individual profiles and notes before having a bet here, as everybody will take different things from the statistics and pointers outlined.
SELECTION: FOXROCK E/W 13/2
3.50 - Hennessy Gold Cup - Grade 1 - 3m
We've done our unique individual horse profiles and notes on this race, which can be seen here.Yet another Grade 1 (what a day!) and as is the norm, some of the Lexus runners return to Leopardstown for the Hennessy Gold Cup, while others are heading straight to Cheltenham or other end-of-season targets. Out again today are On His Own (2nd), Boston Bob (4th), Carlingford Lough, First Lieutenant and Lord Windermere (5th, 6th and 7th), as well as Home Farm who fell that day.
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| Foxrock (right) won the Grade 1 Boylespots Handicap Chase last time out. |
Our post-racing notes from the Lexus make interesting reading here; the problems outlined with On His Own's jumping would make me hesitant to back him, as Leopardstown last time out seemed to bring out the problems at their worst since the Thyestes Chase last year. Boston Bob put in a very good run that day and should definitely appreciate that the ground is that bit drier today, so he's certainly in with a shout. First Lieutenant could possibly have had a better finishing position had he not hampered the last and lost his motion.
However, the horse I'm siding with today for an each-way bet didn't run in the Lexus, but instead came 2nd in the Grade 2 Paddy Power Handicap Chase the previous day, and went on to win the Grade 1 Boylesports Handicap Chase a few weeks ago. Foxrock has shown real potential in these two starts and the conditions suit very well today based on his profile, so 13/2 looks like decent each-way value.
I'd encourage you to read the individual profiles and notes before having a bet here, as everybody will take different things from the statistics and pointers outlined.
SELECTION: FOXROCK E/W 13/2
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