Greatwood Gold Cup Preview & Selections

The Greatwood Gold Cup was an extremely tough race to narrow down the field, with a lot of this year’s contenders seemingly suited by the conditions and in with massive chances. Having said this, none of the horses contesting this Grade 3 have won a race at listed level or higher and 6 of the 11 runners have never even run at listed level or higher. Though almost impossible eliminate the majority of this field from contention, we will do our best.

Sound Investment carries top weight today

Top weight is Sound Investment who hasn’t been seen since before Christmas, when he ran well over this trip twice before failing to produce the goods when stepping up to 3 miles. The drop back down in trip should suit and he has placed on both starts at Newbury, yet his record with Sam Twiston-Davies on board isn’t as strong and I have suspicions that he may prefer right-handed tracks. Nicholls’ strong record in the race is certainly worth noting, yet at short odds I’d prefer to look for an each-way bet.

Next in the weights is Royal Regatta who to me is a more attractive prospect; his form over fences is all over a shorter trip than this but he won over 2m 4f over hurdles. 5 wins from 8 starts with Richard Johnson on board is a huge positive and he also seems to love flatter tracks. Jockeys are relevant in a few cases here – one of the other attractive prospects is Headlys Bridge who has made the frame 3 times from 4 starts with Andrew Thorpe on board, runs well after a short break and has won here at Newbury. He ran badly to be pulled up just after Christmas but had a nice level of consistency prior to this and is a very big price today.

Bennys Mist was 2nd in last year's Topham Chase

Seventh Sky and Easter Meteor both don cheek pieces today. The former is likely to make the running and is in flying form since taking to fences this season with form of 231215P42112 while the latter was very disappointing last time out when 7^th in a Grade 3 on Trials Day at Cheltenham; this has been well accounted for in the weights, however, and if he was to get back to previous form then he could take advantage of the 11-3 on his back.

Bennys Mist is in reasonable form and has some desirable Graded form under his belt having finished 2^nd behind Ma Filleule (and in front of some good horses) in the Grade 3 Topham Chase at Aintree last season. The handicapper may have been slightly tough on him today all things considered, though. Ballygarvey has been running over 2 miles since his return to action after a long break, and seems in some ways suited by today’s conditions – he has won on both of his past starts in February and has a good record when running within 30 days of his last run.

Midnight Belle is a big price but likes soft ground

Another attractive option (this race is full of them) is Midnight Belle who loves soft ground, loves running after a short break and loves the first few months of the year. He fell on his first start over fences but since then has had consistent form of 332211 (mostly on softer ground) and 14/1 is a nice each-way price for such a consistent horse. Saint Raph won at Wincanton last time out showing huge improvement but he will still have more to do at a higher level here and his price isn't overly attractive. Simply Wings was behind him that day, running disappointingly. I would think that he prefers right-handed tracks, but he has only been outside of the places once from 8 starts in January and February.

Westward Point returns from a break of almost 450 days and so it’s hard to back him with no knowledge of how he’s doing. The conditions should suit and the markets are wary of him but his long layoff is the reason I’ll pass up on a bet.

I’m reluctant to rule out most of these but after a lot of contemplation I’ve narrowed it down to Royal Regatta and Midnight Belle, one of which will be our bet in the race. Were it to rain a bit at Newbury, Midnight Belle would be a fantastic each-way bet with massive consistency and a preference for softer ground. With the chase course now officially good to soft, soft in places, it’s hard to tell whether he’ll like the ground or would want more of a cut in it. Royal Regatta is perfectly suited to the conditions and has also shown great consistency this season.

On the hunt for value I’m going to side with the nicer price (Midnight Belle is 14/1 compared to Royal Regatta’s 8/1) and pray for some rain before the off. Our longshot bet of the day will also come in this race in the form of Headlys Bridge – the market seems to me to be taking too much notice of his bad run last time out (after which he scoped badly) and if he can regain his former consistency he should be well able to run a big race today – 20/1 is just too generous in my opinion.

SELECTION: MIDNIGHT BELLE 14/1 E/W

LONGSHOT OF THE DAY: HEADLYS BRIDGE 20/1 E/W