As usual, it needs to be noted that only form from the UK and Ireland is included in the profiles and notes below:

Harry Topper

Overall Record: 17 runs – 18 wins – 1 place
Record at Newbury: 2-2-0 – won the 3m Grade 2 Worcester Novices Chase here in 2012, and also won this race last year.
He seems to enjoy some sort of cut in the ground – 4-1-0 on good ground but 13-7-1 on good to soft or worse.
His record over this trip is good – 5-4-1 with form of 21111, but his record over 3m½f is 2-0-0 with form of 73. Record over longer than 3m is 7-1-0 and shorter is 5-3-0.
Jockeys: C Greene 2-1-0, Jason Maguire 8-4-0, Timmy Murphy 2-1-0, Sean Quinlan 4-2-1, Nick Scholfield 1-0-0
No success from 3 attempts in Grade 1 races, but 5-3-1 is a good record in Grade 2’s.
No success from 2 attempts in fields of 16 or more runners (7P), best record probably 6-4-0 in fields of 7 or less with form of 111331. 15-8-1 in fields of 15 or less.
Very strong record when out again within 30 days of his last start (4-3-0) and also after a break of over 60 days (5-3-0), but not as strong after a break of 31-60 days (7-1-1).
February is probably his best month (3-2-1, form of 211), he tends to disappoint at the end of the season (March/April record is 5-1-0, 17UBP).

So, a good record at Newbury, he gets the cut in the ground he's looking for, he does well over the trip, Barry Geraghty rides who has never ridden him before so it's definitely not a negative, he does well in Grade 2's, has a good record in this field size, he's had more than 60 days off and this is his best month - Harry Topper seems to tick all of the boxes.

Unioniste

Overall Record: 12 runs – 5 wins – 1 place
Record at Newbury: 2-1-0 – won a Class 3 3m novices chase here in 2013, 6^th in the Hennessy Gold Cup here last November.
Seems to like soft ground – 7-2-0 on yielding to soft or better, 5-3-1 on soft or worse.
Jockeys: Harry Derham 2-1-1, Noel Fehily 2-1-0, Daryl Jacob 1-1-0, Nick Scholfield 1-0-0, Sam Twiston-Davies 3-1-0, Ruby Walsh 3-1-0
Nothing to show in the way of wins or places for his 3 attempts at Grade 1 and 2 races, but has won a Grade 3 in the past.
5-3-0 in fields of 1-7, 10-5-1 in fields of 15 or less, 2-0-0 in fields of 16 or more.
Performs better after a relatively recent run – 8-4-1 having run in the past 60 days, 3-0-0 after a break of more than 60 days.
Early season form (4-1-0 in October and November) improves over December, January and February (combined record of 6-4-1) and deteriorates again (2-0-0 in March and April).
Seems to do slightly better on flatter tracks (9-4-1 on flat tracks and those with slight undulations compared to 3-1-0 on very undulating tracks).

So, Unioniste has won here but lost here also, likes soft ground which he gets today, Noel Fehily was not one of the jockeys we would have liked to see on him but his record on the horse isn't bad either, he hasn't had any success in Grade 2's, he does do well in these small fields, he has run in the last 60 days as is preferable, February is within his strong months and he does well at tracks with slight undulations - he ticks 5 of the 7 boxes we set.

Double Ross

Overall Record: 31 runs – 5 wins – 9 places
Record at Newbury: 2-0-0 – 3^rd of 5 in Grade 1 2m 5f Challow Novices Hurdle and 17^th in the Betfair Hurdle at this fixture in 2012.
Record on softer ground is slightly better (16-2-4 on good to soft or better, 15-3-5 on soft or worse).
Winless from 8 starts over 2m 5½f+ (record of 8-0-1, 5-0-0 over 3m+, the place was over 2m 6½f).
Jockeys: David England 1-0-0, R Hatch 1-0-0, Daryl Jacob 1-0-0, Jamie Moore 1-0-0, W Thompson 1-0-1, Sam Twiston-Davies 23-5-7, W Twiston-Davies 1-0-0, A Wedge 2-0-1
Record in fields of 12 or more runners is marginally better than in fields of 11 or less (17-3-6 compared to 14-2-3).
Win/place records get progressively better from October to January (October 5-0-1 20%, November 6-1-1 33%, December 5-2-1 60%, January 4-1-2 75%). 2-0-0 in February but 3-0-2 in March.
Preference for right-handed tracks (7-2-3 compared to 24-3-6).
21-1-5 on flat tracks and those with slight undulations not as good as 10-4-4 on undulating and very undulating tracks.

Double Ross has had no success at Newbury in the past, and also hasn't done well over this trip. He does like softer ground but Hatch hasn't done well on him in the past and he would prefer a bigger field. February has been a bad month for him and he hasn't done well going left-handed or on tracks with slight undulations - he doesn't really seem to fit this race.

Houblon Des Obeaux

Overall Record: 29 runs – 6 wins – 6 places
Record at Newbury: 3-0-1 – 4^th in 3m Grade 2 Worcester Novices Chase in 2012, 6^th in 3m2½f Hennessy Gold Cup in 2013, 2^nd in the same race last November.
Best record is on good to soft ground (11-4-2) but strong place record on soft ground (6-1-3). Record not as strong on good or heavy ground, so we seem to want the ground to be soft, but not too soft.
This seems to be his best trip (10-3-3) and he has a decent record over shorter too (10-3-2) but not as good over further (9-0-1).
Jockeys: Aidan Coleman 24-6-6, Sam Thomas 1-0-0, Liam Treadwell 1-0-0
Has performed better in smaller fields (11 or less) with a record of 17-5-4, compared to 12-1-2 in fields of 12+.
Has done well after a long layoff of over 120 days (4-2-1, form of 9112).
Hard to pick out any peak months, but we should be wary of him in March and April (9-0-2).
Probably a preference for right-handed tracks (8-3-2 compared to 21-3-4 going left-handed).

Soft ground today will suit and he should like this trip, while Aidan Coleman riding is a plus as is the small field size. A long layoff would have been preferable (he ran just 44 days ago) as would a right-handed track (Newbury is left-handed). He ticks 4 of our 6 boxes.

Coneygree

Overall Record: 8 runs – 6 wins – 0 places
Record at Newbury: 2-1-0 (8^th in a 2m listed bumper here on his second career start, and won the Grade 2 2m 4f Berkshire Novices Chase here in November).
Never ran on ground better than good to soft, but his record of 3-3-0 on soft ground stands out a bit.
2-2-0 over this trip.
Jockeys: Mattie Batchelor 6-4-0, Nico de Boinville 2-2-0
3-3-0 when running after a break of less than 30 days, 4-2-0 after more than 30 days off the track.
6-6-0 in November and December, losses came in January and February so he may be one to follow before Christmas.

Coneygree isn't really suited to this type of analysis as he has had only 8 career runs and has won 6 - in short, he has done very little wrong. However, it is worth noting that soft ground may well be his optimum conditions (he gets it today), we would like him to be running within 30 days of his last start (it has been 49 days since he last ran) and we may have to be slightly wary of him in the New Year, having had no success after Christmas in the past.

Taquin Du Seuil

Overall Record: 14 runs – 7 wins – 2 places
Record at Newbury: 1-1-0 (won the Grade 1 2m 5f Challow Novices Hurdle here in 2012).
Best record is undoubtedly on heavy ground (4-4-0), but his record on soft is 3-0-0 with form of 23P. Record on good to soft or better is 7-3-2 with form of 1261312.
Winless from three starts over further than 2m 5f (3-0-1, place was over 3m 1f), 11-7-1 over 2m 5f or shorter.
Jockeys: Barry Geraghty 2-0-1, AP McCoy 11-7-1, RP McLernon 1-0-0
10-5-2 after a break of 60 days or less with form of 211132112P compares well with 3-1-0 after more than 60 days off the track, with form of 613.
Better record before Christmas than after, if only by a small margin; 10-5-2 from October to December compared to 4-2-0 in January and March.

Taquin Du Seuil has won at Newbury. However, soft ground is not what we want for him and he hasn't done well over this trip in the past. AP McCoy's good record on him is encouraging, but we would prefer if he had had a more recent run, and his spring record isn't as strong his record before Christmas.

So, based on the above data we eliminate Taquin Du Seuil and Double Ross. This leaves us with four - Harry Topper, Unioniste, Houblon Des Obeaux and Coneygree.

All four are in with chances based on what we've seen above but it's Harry Topper who ticks all the boxes and represents the each-way value so that we can back him to finish in the top two at 7/1.

SELECTION: HARRY TOPPER E/W 7/1

The Parade Ring

Friday, 6 February 2015

Denman Chase Individual Horse Profiles & Notes