Scilly Isles Novices Chase Individual Horse Profiles & Notes

An interesting clash at Sandown today sees some RSA,  JLT and possibly Arkle contenders go head to head over 2m 4½f to contest the Scilly Isles Novices Chase. We’ve used our unique individual horse profiles and notes to attempt to get an edge on this field of five. However, it must be noted that we’ve only included runs in the UK and Ireland in this data. This mostly effects Gitane Du Berlais, who had numerous starts in France prior to and following her UK debut in November.

Champagne West

Overall record: 10 runs – 5 wins – 3 places

• Form gets better as ground gets softer; 4-3-1 on soft or worse, 6-2-2 on good to soft or better.
• Best record is over roughly this distance (5-3-2 over 2m 3f – 2m 5f, compared to 4-2-0 over 2m 5½f or further).
• Jockeys: Richard Johnson 7-4-1, TJ O’Brien 3-1-2
• Unplaced in sole previous Grade 1 start, but ran in one Grade 2 and finished 2^nd of 7.
• Seems to perform better in smaller fields  - 7-4-2 with form of 2211112 in fields of 11 or less, 3-1-0 with form of 914 in fields of 12 or more.
• 6-4-2 after a  break of between 16 and 30 days, 4-1-1 after a break of 31 days or more, so it seems that he’s better having had a recent run.
• Probably peaks in December and January, with a record of 5-4-1 and form of 11112 in those months, and a record of 5-1-2 and form of 29241 in other months (namely November and March).

So, we would have hoped for softer ground than the current good to soft. The trip today should suit and Richard Johnson taking the reins is an advantage. Today's field is suitably small, and he ran 30 days ago which just about meets our criteria. Finally, we noted that he seems to peak in December and January, and so he just about fits into his peak window today.

Grumeti

Overall record: 26 runs – 9 wins – 7 places (11 of these runs, 3 of these wins and 5 of these places were on the flat)

• 2-1-1 at Sandown, in 1m 2f Class 4 and 5 handicaps on the flat.
• Slightly better record on better ground (18-7-6 on good to soft or better means 39% win and 72% win/place records, compared to 8-2-3 on soft or worse which is 25% win and 63% win/place).
• Only ever ran over 2m 4f once, finishing 5^th of 7. Closest to this was 2m 1½f, so he isn’t proven over the trip.
• Jockeys: Jimmy Fortune 2-1-1, Wayne Hutchinson 10-4-1, Ryan Moore 1-0-1, Jamie Spencer 4-2-1, Robert Thornton 5-2-1, Hayley Turner 4-0-2
• Form is fairly evenly spread across the National Hunt season, but his best record is in January (3-2-0). The summer months of May, June and July have a record of 7-4-3.
• Seems to have a slight preference for right-handed tracks (11-4-5, 31323111253 compared to 12-5-2, F1314385141 on left-handed tracks). (Italics form is on the flat).

As long as the rain holds off, the ground should suit today, but the trip is a question and Wayne Hutchinson being on board is not necessarily an advantage based on the figures above. January is a strong month for him, which is good for us, while a preference for right-handed tracks will also be beneficial today.

Irish Saint

Overall record: 12 runs – 5 wins – 3 places

• 2-1-0 at Sandown, win was in a 2m Class 2 novices chase, 3^rd of 4 in a Grade 1 2m novices chase.
• Good record on heavy ground (4-2-2, 1213) but unplaced in 2 starts on soft. Record of 6-3-1 on good to soft and better.
• Jockeys: Noel Fehily 2-1-1, Daryl Jacob 1-0-0, Nock Scholfield 2-1-0, Tom Scudamore 1-0-0, Sam Twiston-Davies 2-1-0, Ruby Walsh 4-2-2
• 3-0-1 in Grade 1 races, much better record of 3-2-1 in Grade 2’s.
• 7-3-2 after 30 or less days off the track, 4-1-1 after 31-365 days off, 1-1-0 after more than a year off the track.
• Seems to peak in January and February (4-2-2), form earlier on in the season is 6-3-0 and later is 2-0-1.
• Winless from 7 starts on left-handed tracks (5-0-3), 7-5-0 on right-handed tracks.

He's unlikley to get his preferred heavy ground today, and Sam Twiston-Davies is not one of the jockeys we would have hoped to have on board Irish Saint. We also suggested he may be more suited to running in Grade 2 races, and that it should be within 30 days of his last run (he last ran 42 days ago). The positives are a good record in January and a very strong record on right-handed tracks.

Splash Of Ginge

Overall record: 17 runs – 4 wins – 3 places

• Best form comes on good to soft ground (5-2-1 compared to 4-0-1 on good ground and 8-2-1 on soft or worse).
• 9-2-3 over 2m 4f – 2m 5f, 8-2-0 over a shorter trip. 2-0-0 over today’s trip of 2m 4½f, however.
• Jockeys: Jamie Bargary 1-1-0, Ryan Hatch 4-1-0, Sam Twiston-Davies 12-2-3
• 4-0-2 in Grade 1 or 2 races, 3-2-0 in Grade 3’s.
• Seems to prefer bigger fields – 10-2-1 in fields of 11 or less runners, 7-2-2 in fields of 12 or more runners.
• All of his wins and places came after a break of 16-60 days (12-4-3), with a record of 1-0-0 after a break of 15 or less days and 4-0-0 after a break of 61 or more days.
• Seems to have a preference for left-handed tracks, but has only had 4 starts on right-handed tracks (13-4-3 compared to 4-0-0).

Splash Of Ginge runs today on his preferred good to soft ground, over his preferred trip. However, Ryan Hatch has enjoyed little success on him in the past and all of his success has come at a lower level than this. He has run in the past 16-60 days (his last run was 30 days ago) but his preference for left-handed tracks isn't good.

Gitane Du Berlais

Overall record: 4 runs – 3 wins – 1 place (again to stress than this is only his UK/Ireland record)

• Might be better on softer ground – sole loss came on yielding to soft, with wins coming on soft and soft to heavy.
• Sole loss came over 2m, with a good record over further (up to 2m 3½f).
• Jockeys: Danny Mullins 1-1-0, Paul Townend 2-2-0, Ruby Walsh 1-0-1

We're not paying too much attention to the analysis of Gitane Du Berlais as it doesn't include his French form.

The Verdict:

CHAMPAGNE WEST 5/2