Sunday, 28 December 2014

Lexus Chase Post-Racing Notes

A few notes to take after today's Lexus Chase, naturally with one eye on the future, and especially the Cheltenham Gold Cup:

Road To Riches ran a fine race to win, and was given an equally fine ride from terrific young jockey Bryan Cooper, who only returned to action in October after a very bad fall at Cheltenham in March. He's back on top form, though, with 3 of his 5 runners today winning. Road To Riches looks like a seriously exciting prospect looking ahead, with clear and constant progress of late to the point of a wonderful consistency where he has form of 121211 in his last 6 starts.

Road To Riches jumps the last on his way to victory in the Lexus Chase
Road To Riches; Clearly progressive & increasingly consistent
The fact that his profile was so against all conditions today may show just how well he performed to win. One school of thought would make you wonder just how well he could perform had the conditions suited him a bit better. One thing is for sure, and that's that since the end of last season, Road To Riches has shown serious ability which you would be forgiven for thinking climaxed in the Galway Plate. However, he solidified the form by winning the Grade 1 JNwine.com Champion Chase at Down Royal, and even further by winning today. There's no doubt at this stage that Road To Riches is a serious Gold Cup contender.

2nd was On His Own, a horse very different to Road To Riches in that he hasn't shown great consistency over the past while. He ran a very good and arguably unlucky 2nd in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last March, since which he has disappointed twice. However, today's run was a strong one, but there was one clear and obvious problem - his jumping.

On His Own's unfortunate habit of jumping to the right let him down
It's almost tiring complaining about the jumping of Mullins' chasers, but On His Own jumped violently to the right at nearly every fence and lost so much ground in doing so that he easily would have won the Lexus had he jumped straight and properly. It's not a new problem for him - jumping problems and small mistakes are a common feature in his runs, but jumping to the right this much hasn't been seen as clearly since he won the Thyestes Chase at Gowran almost a year ago. If this problem was to be solved, we'd have another serious candidate for the Gold Cup, but for some reason it looks unlikely that Mullins will wave a magic wand at this and it will simply go away.

Sam Winner was a surprise 3rd and cynics would claim that it shows a lack of class in the race. Others would argue that Nicholls' horse proved himself as having a bit more class than some of us may have thought. He was certainly able to put in a good run among proven Grade 1 horses, and there's no doubt that he really will, as the saying goes, stay longer than the mother-in-law. It was a really big run that he put in and there's no doubt that he could excel over the 3m 2f of the Gold Cup - but is he more likely to be suited by the marathon 4m 4f of the Grand National or 4m of the Scottish National?

First Lieutenant landed unfavourably at the last and lost ground as a result
Just missing out on a place was Boston Bob, who for a long time has been billed as a horse who could win the Gold Cup "if he got his jumping sorted out". Today he put in a massive run considering that, although we outlined his strong record on bad ground, he is widely regarded as having a preference towards good ground, and should also enjoy the trip in the Gold Cup.

Carlingford Lough was interestingly the horse that many people seem to have taken from the race. He put in a decent race and could have finished better had he not been carried right before the last and then hampered it slightly. First Lieutenant was my each-way bet and I really feel he could have done a lot better on the run-in had he not hampered the last and then landed out of rhythm, causing him to lose his motion momentarily and lose a bit of ground in the process.

We were openly fairly critical of Lord Windermere after his Gold Cup win last year, stating that he was a below-par Gold Cup winner in a below-par renewal of the Gold Cup. Unfortunately, he was disappointing today and equally disappointing on his other start since the Gold Cup win, and so it's unlikely that many will be lumping on to him for the Gold Cup now.

Bobs Worth won the Gold Cup in 2013 - are his best days behind him?
Bobs Worth was the other Gold Cup winner in the field and ended up finishing only 8th. He hadn't been seen since finishing 5th in last year's Gold Cup but I would be of the slightly controversial opinion that we haven't seen Bobs Worth at his best since he won that tough, gritty Gold Cup in 2013 in a tough slog up the hill. Okay, so he kept on well in his Lexus win, but 3 of his 4 starts since his Gold Cup win have been his 3 most disappointing in his career, and unfortunately it's hard to oppose the theory that Bobs Worth's best days are behind him.

Home Farm fell at the first and so it's hard to have any real opinion on his run.

All in all, it was a strong renewal of the Lexus, with only the two Gold Cup winners disappointing, and the top 6 all putting in good runs with different things to take from them.

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