Lexus Chase Individual Horse Profiles & Notes

The King George Guide got a good reception from our readers and followers, and probably its main section was the final one, the individual horse profiles and notes. So, we've done them again for today's Lexus Chase at Leopardstown, one of the most competitive renewals of the race we've seen in years, with the 2013 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner, the 2014 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner and runner-up, the 2014 Punchestown Gold Cup winner and runner-up, and the Galway Plate winner among the 10 horses competing. 

Take what you will from the profiles, but it may be useful to note before you start that Leopardstown is a left-handed flat track, as this will come up in many of the profiles and notes. Furthermore, today's is a field of 10, the race is 3 miles long and the going is currently heavy. Having that information at the top of the post may make it easier for you to refer back to as you go look through the profiles.

Bobs Worth

• 1 win from 1 run at Leopardstown
• Best record probably good ground with 6-5-0, with form of 111115. Good to soft is 7-4-2, with form of 211321. Soft (including one start on yielding to soft which he won) is 3-2-0, and the form reads 161.
• Form is better over shorter trip than longer – never failed to make the frame over less than 3 miles, with a record of 6-5-1 – only failing to win once, with was coming 2^nd in his 2 miles maiden. Record over 3m+ is 9-5-1, with form of 132111615.
• Jockeys: Barry Geraghty 14-9-2, RJ Killoran 1-1-0
• Failed to make the frame 3 times in his career, all in Grade 1 races
• Never unplaced in fields of 16+ (4-3-1). More average record of 8-6-0 in fields of 8-15, and slightly worse in fields of 7 or less (3-1-1).
• Slightly better record after 91+ days off (6-4-1) than 90 or less days off the track (9-6-1).
• Better record on left-handed tracks (10-8-0) than right-handed (5-2-2). An 80% win/place record in both directions, but 80% wins going left-handed and only 40% wins going right-handed.
• Better record on tracks classed as having slight undulations or being very undulating (9-7-1) than flat tracks (6-3-1).

Boston Bob

• 2 wins from 2 starts at Leopardstown (in a 2m 4f hurdle and 2m 5f chase)
• Best record probably on soft to heavy and heavy (combined record of 7-5-1 and form of 3111116). Record on good, good to soft and good to yielding is 7-3-2 with form of 12F6112, while yielding, yielding to soft and soft is 3-1-1, with form of 1F3.
• Best record is over less than 3 miles (11-8-2). 3 miles and further is just 6-1-2, but 3 miles isn’t bad with a record of 3-0-2.
• Jockeys: P T Gllagher 1-1-0, Barry Geraghty 1-0-0, Paul Townend 5-3-0, Ms K Walsh 1-0-1, Ruby Walsh 9-5-3
• Decent record of 5-3-1 in fields of 7 or less, and also a good record of 3-1-2 in fields of 12 or more runners. Less successful in fields of 8-11 (9-5-1).
• Record of 12-6-2 after a break of 60 or less days, 5-3-2 after a break of 121 or more days (never ran after a break of between 60 and 120 days).
• He has a strong record in November and December, improving from 2-1-1 in November to 4-3-1 in December. This drops to 2-1-0 in January and picks up again to 2-1-1 in February.
• Won all 6 starts on flat tracks and those with slight undulations – a similarly strong record of 6-2-3 on undulating tracks but just 5-1-1 on very undulating tracks

Carlingford Lough

• 4-1-1 at Leopardstown (win came in a 3m novices chase, placed in a 2m 5f handicap chase).
• 6-3-1 on good and good to yielding, 3-1-0 on yielding to soft, 6-2-3 on soft, 6-1-2 on soft to heavy and heavy
• Jockeys: DJ Casey 1-0-0, NP Madden 3-0-1, AP McCoy 7-3-2, MP Walsh 10-4-3
• 4-2-1 in fields of 1-7, only 9-3-3 in fields of 8-15, and a weak 8-2-2 in fields of 16+ runners – so the less runners the better
• 7-4-1 after less than 30 days off, 12-3-5 after 31-60, but never won or placed from 2 runs after 121 days off the track or more.
• Peaks during the summer – 5 wins from 5 runs in July and August.

First Lieutenant

• 5-1-3 at Leopardstown (win was in a 2-mile novices hurdle, the places all in 2-mile chases, as was the other run when he finished 3^rd in a race of 7 runners).
• Record worst on very soft ground (3-1-0 on soft to heavy and heavy). Strong record of 5-2-3 on soft. 3-0-3 on good to soft and good to yielding, but only 7-1-3 on yielding to soft and yielding. 9-3-2 on good ground with form of 113224134 (these form figures seem fairly impressive, but 4 were in fields of 6 or less, where finishing 3^rd or 4^th is not a particularly great achievement).
• Jockeys: DJ Casey 1-0-1, Bryan Cooper 8-1-5, Barry Geraghty 2-0-1, Andrew McNamara 2-1-0, Mr RP McNamara 1-1-0, Davy Russell 14-4-4
• 2 wins from 2 starts in fields of 12-15, and a win and 10 places from 12 starts in fields of 8-11, a 92% win/place rate which is massive for 12 starts. 3-1-1 in fields of 16+ not bad, but 11-3-0 in fields of 7 or less unimpressive.
• 13-3-8 after 30 or less days off, with 3-1-2 after 61-90 also strong. 6-1-1 after 31-60 less impressive.
• Only one win from 6 starts in December, but a further 4 places makes for a good record. Other strong month is March (4-2-2).
• Slight preference for left-handed tracks (13-4-6 compared to 15-3-5 on right-handed tracks).
• Decreasing win/place percentages as he ages may be of worry to some supporters – 80% as a 5yo, 71% as a 6yo, 67% as a 7yo and again as an 8yo, and 25% so far as a 9yo with only one place from 4 starts.

Home Farm

• Worrying record of 5-0-0 at Leopardstown.
• 2-0-0 on good or good to yielding ground, and 3-0-0 on soft to heavy or heavy. 8-3-1 on yielding, yielding to soft and soft, with form of 1P133571.
• Picked up one place (3^rd) out of 3 starts over 3m+, but it was over 3m 5f.
• Jockeys: DJ Casey 9-2-1, BM Cash 1-0-0, Barry Geraghty 1-0-0, Davy Russell 1-1-0, Paul Townend 1-0-0
• Unplaced in all 3 starts in fields of 7 or less, but managed 2 wins from 4 starts in fields of 8-15.
• 3-2-0 after a break of 121-365 days, with a record of 10-1-1 from his 10 other runs.
• 4-0-0 in December and 1-0-0 in January is not good news – however, the fact that they’re wedged between his two best months (November 4-2-0 and February 1-1-0) might give followers some hope for today.
• All 3 wins and place came on right-handed tracks – record of 6-3-1 compared to 7-0-0 on left-handed tracks.
• 5-0-0 on flat tracks, 8-3-1 on undulating tracks or those with slight undulations.

Lord Windermere

• 6-1-1 at Leopardstown (won a beginners chase over 2m 3f and placed in a novices chase on his next start over 2m 5f. Since finished 7^th and 9^th in 3m chases.)
• Best record is on heavy ground – 3-1-2
• Jockeys: Dougie Costello 2-0-0, TJ Doyle 10-4-3, Mr RP McNamara 1-0-0, Davy Russell 4-2-0
• 8-5-1 in fields of 8-15 runners. 7-1-2 in fields of 7 or less is reasonable, 2-0-0 in 16 or more not encouraging.
• 12-6-2 when it’s been 60 or less days since his last run, 5-0-1 when it’s been 61 or more.
• 3 wins from 3 starts in March means it’s definitely his stand-out month.
• A preference for undulating and very undulating tracks (7-5-1, compared to those with slight undulations or flat tracks where his record reads 10-1-2).

On His Own

• 2-1-0 at Leopardstown – won on his first start in a 2m 4f bumper and brought down in a 3m handicap chase in 2011.
• 8-6-0 on soft, soft to heavy and heavy ground with form of 11151611, compared to 13-2-1 on anything better. The 5^th was at Punchestown, while the 6^th was possibly excusable as it was in the Becher Chase over Aintree’s National fences which connections have noted on numerous occasions he is not suited to (after falling twice in the Grand National).
• 10-5-0 over 3m and 3m 1f, 5-0-1 over further, 6-3-0 over shorter.
• DJ Casey 2-1-1, PT Gallagher 1-1-0, Mr O Greenall 1-0-0, Brian Hughes 3-1-0, Denis O’Regan 1-0-0, Mr RP Quinlan 1-1-0, Paul Townend 6-2-0, Ruby Walsh 6-2-0
• 10-6-0 with form of 1141116186 in fields of 11 or less, 11-2-1 with form of 04PB1FF5612 in fields of 12 or more.
• 7-4-1 after a break of less than 30 days, 13-3-0 after a break of 31-360, and 1-1-0 after a year or more off.
• Probably peaks in January with a record of 4-3-0, which holds strong in February with 3-2-0. May also strong with 1 win from 1 start in the month.
• Definite preference for right-handed tracks – 8-5-0 compared to 13-3-1.

Road To Riches

• 2-0-0 at Leopardstown
• 2-2-0 on heavy ground and 3-2-1 on yielding and yielding to soft. 1-1-0 on good also stands out.
• Jockeys: Nina Carberry 1-1-0, Paul Carberry 6-3-1, R C Colgan 1-0-0, Mr G N Fox 1-0-1, Barry Geraghty 1-0-0, Davy Russell 3-2-0, Mr S Shortall 1-1-0
• 4-3-1 in fields of 12+, 10-4-1 in fields of 11 or less.
• 3-2-1 after 61-90 days off, 2-2-0 after 121+
• Never finished outside the places in 7 starts from May to November (7-5-2).
• Preference for right-handed tracks (9-5-2 compared to 5-2-0).
• Seen to his best on tracks classed as undulating or as having slight undulations (10-6-2, compared to 4-1-0 on flat tracks).

Sam Winner

• Strongest record is 5-2-1 on good to soft (form of 1103P).
• Jockeys: Noel Fehily 2-2-0, Daryl Jacob 4-1-0, AP McCoy 1-0-0, Nick Scholfield 2-1-0, Mr S Twiston-Davies 1-1-0, Ruby Walsh 8-1-1
• 3-0-0 in Grade 1’s compared to 4-2-0 in Grade 2’s and 3’s.
• 5-3-0 in fields of 12-15, 9-3-0 in smaller fields and 4-0-1 in bigger.
• 5-3-0 after a break of less than 30 days and 1-1-0 after a break of a year or more. 12-2-1 after a break of 31-365 days.
• Strong record in November (4-2-0) before peaking in December (5-3-0) and continuing a decent record in January (2-1-0). Never won in his 7 other starts, all of which came between February and April (7-0-1).
• 5-0-0 as a 4yo, 1-0-0 as a 5yo, rapidly improved with a record of 5-2-1 as a 6yo and 5-2-0 so far as a 7yo.

Texas Jack

• 5-1-2 at Leopardstown
• Jockeys: Paul Carberry 15-5-3, D J Condon 2-0-0, Barry Geraghty 1-0-0, Mr J P McKeown 1-1-0, Ruby Walsh 1-0-0
• 2-2-0 in fields of 16+.
• 3-1-1 after 8-15 days off the track, 10-2-1 after 16-60 and 7-3-1 after a break of 61 or more days.
• January looks like the strongest month with a record of 3-2-0. Winless in February, March and April, with a record of 6-0-1 and form of 476274 throughout the Spring months. 1-1-0 in May, and 10-3-2 in October, November and December, with form of 1142133334.

Trends Analysis

To add to the horse profiles and notes, we'll have a quick look at 6 of the main common trends for the Lexus and apply them to the runners:

1. 10 of the last 10 winners had run in the past 40 days

2. 10 of the last 10 winners had won over 3m+

3. 9 of the last 10 winners finished in the top 3 on their last completed start

4. 9 of the last 10 winners had 1 or 2 runs that season

5. 9 of the last 10 winners had won a graded chase

6. 8 of the last 10 winners were aged 6-8

	1	2	3	4	5	6	Total
Bobs Worth	No	Yes	No	No	Yes	No	2
Boston Bob	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	5
Carlingford Lough	No	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	4
First Lieutenant	No	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	No	3
Home Farm	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	4
Lord Windermere	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	6
On His Own	No	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	No	3
Road To Riches	No	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	4
Sam Winner	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	6
Texas Jack	Yes	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	4