JLT Long Walk Hurdle

2.25 Ascot – JLT Long Walk Hurdle – 3m 1f – Grade 1

This might be a much tougher race to predict than is being made out by some – Zarkandar is the strong favourite, followed in the betting by Reve De Sivola, winner of this race in the last two years in a row.

Zarkandar has 3 Grade 1 wins to his name

Yet neither is as strong as their odds would suggest. Paul Nicholls’ favourite hadn’t won in almost a year and a half when he managed to win at Auteil on the 1^st of November last time out. Based on that run alone, there are definite signs of massive improvement in this gelding. Soft ground here should be a positive, and although we normally watch out for horses with a run in the last 40 days in this race, Zarkandar has probably been aimed at this for a while now and it would be a surprise to see him in any way unfit after his win in France last month.

His “main opponent” is supposedly Reve De Sivola, although one would suspect that this may be on past reputation more than recent form. He has won this race the past two years, but hasn’t managed to win since last year’s victory. He was a well-beaten 4^th, about 8 lengths behind Knockara Beau in the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham last January. Things didn’t get any better at the festival when he was 8^th in the World Hurdle, with two horses who run today finishing ahead of him in Zarkandar (4^th) and Medinas (7^th). Nick Williams then took Reve De Sivola to Punchestown, where Barry Geraghty took the reins from Richard Johnson but to no avail – he only managed to finish 7^th in the World Series Hurdle there. This season, he has had two runs at Auteil and both were fairly unimpressive – he finished 5^th there in October and then 7^th when Zarkandar won in November.

Reve De Sivola won this race the last two years in a row

He should be the winner today if he can find his best form again but he has shown no sign of doing so, and the only indicator that he may return to winning ways is his fantastic record at Ascot (2 wins and a place from 3 starts at the track).

Medinas is 7/2 and looks a fantastic prospect to come out on top in an interesting renewal of the Long Walk Hurdle. Some may argue that he was a bit lucky to win last time out in a Grade 2 at Newbury, and may have been unimpressive when last seen in a Grade 1 in the World Hurdle at Cheltenham, but I would say that he was certainly back to his best on that last outing, and the conditions of this race seem to suit perfectly. In a similar case to Zarkandar’s, his supporters will be hoping that the evidence of improvement from just one run will hold up going into this contest. The soft ground here should be a huge bonus – he has won three times and never failed to place from five starts on soft ground.

The two horses considered to be outsiders are Aubusson and Dell Arca, and it’s the former that catches my eye if you were to be tempted to an each-way bet. He won a handicap at Haydock last month with a 7lb claimer on board, and the main worry going into this race is that he won’t have that claim in a Grade 1 race. If we scrap his Cheltenham run in January, on heavy ground which he perhaps didn’t like, his performances have rapidly improved since he arrived in the UK and won at Chepstow twelve months ago. He’s an exciting prospect for the future, but this could be a big ask today.

Dell Arca won the Greatwood in November 2013 with a few good horses behind him, but followed up on that by unseating Tom Scudamore in the Ladbroke. He was 5^th when favourite to win the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham festival at the end of last season, and improved after that when 3^rd at Aintree in his final start of last season. This season he has failed to impress in two attempts over fences, and hopes to produce a career best performance back over hurdles today.

SELECTION: MEDINAS 7/2