The dust has settled after the Cheltenham festival and the Midlands National today provided distraction from the one and only subject that has taken over our minds and hearts over the last week. Goulanes was a worthy winner, providing a fourth consecutive victory in the race for the stable of David Pipe. Realistically, it can be all but impossible to cast your mind forward towards what are the last big hurrahs of the jumps season (Aintree and its Grand National, the Irish and Scottish Nationals, and Punchestown) when Cheltenham has taken over your thoughts and you've become borderline obsessive with it.
So, it's time to look ahead - not to Aintree, or Punchestown, but to one year onwards, back in the legendary Prestbury Park. On Tuesday 10th of March 2015, the home of jumps racing will once again be the venue for the four most atmospheric and spectacular days of top-class racing that you will find anywhere. Some people begin their long Cheltenham betting journey on the evening of the previous year's Gold Cup. I've left it 24 hours longer so that the emotions will fade and logic will prevail when having a quick look at the possibilities of 2015!
The opening race itself provided us with an impressive winner from the yard of Willie Mullins. Vautour tore the Supreme field apart, drawing clear in the finish and leaving the others for dust. There's no doubt that the punter with an interest in building his Cheltenham portfolio a full 12 months in advance will have Vautour on his radar.
Firstly, let's take a look at the trends. The form of the Supreme winner in the Champion Hurdle over the last 10 years: 35005- and in the Arkle: 342. I think that the trends here may back up my original opinion on this bet. Champagne Fever was last year's Supreme winner in what was a very strong race, but his front-running performance under Ruby Walsh wasn't as impressive as Vautour's ride of a similar nature. The issue is very simple; year after year, we find that novice form just doesn't turn out to be as strong as we expect when they're thrown in with their elders.
The example that I would take, rather than Champagne Fever, would be last year's Triumph Hurdle winner, Our Conor. His win on Gold Cup day 2013 oozed class, and we marveled at how he made the others looks normal; an at the time unbeaten Far West and promising newcomer Rolling Star. The answer was simple - the competition were, at best, normal. Our Conor went on to be a good horse, let there be no doubt about it, but, despite his fantastic run a year previously, he would not have won the Champion Hurdle in my opinion, even had he not taken a fatal fall.
Currently, we're looking at prices for Vautour of 8/1 for the Champion Hurdle and 5/1 for the Arkle (Paddy Power). Whether he stays hurdling or goes chasing, he will have to justify his form against the older generation next season to be a bet for me - and if this means missing out on the prices, so be it. If Mullins decides to go the Champion Hurdle route, I can't see him going off at very short odds on the day unless he has beaten current favourites The New One, My Tent Or Yours and Jezki by the time the festival comes around.
Moving on then to the Champion Hurdle. The prices at the moment are The New One 6/1, My Tent Or Yours 7/1, Jezki 7/1. I've explained why I don't think Vautour is a bet at this stage and stick by that one. A few outsiders might catch the eye - Calipto is 33/1 at the moment and Vaniteux is 25/1. The former was unlucky in the Triumph Hurdle but is hard to back here maybe for the same reason as Vautour - his form will have to be justified next season before we can go backing him. Vaniteux was 3rd behind Vautour in the Supreme, and the same argument stands. We've seen before that novices form does not live up to what we expect.
He interests me though... Nicky Henderson has a record of putting his big players into the Supreme. In recent years, My Tent Or Yours, Sprinter Sacre and Binocular are examples (none of whom won). It was only a late decision on their part to bring this horse to Cheltenham as has apparently only recently begun to mature. All of this would suggest that his improvement could be rapid next year and the prices will be cut on him quickly. And back we go to the old argument - novice form simply isn't solid enough.
However, 33/1 and 25/1 are big prices and I wouldn't put you off small e/w bets. This game is all about value and these odds seem long to me. Follow your gut. There are few feelings that rival having backed a horse at Cheltenham at massive odds and watching it go off at short odds on the day.
For anybody interested in building up a portfolio at the moment, this is not about "bankers" or anything like that. If that's your game, this betting isn't for you. This is about value, and betting in the knowledge that plenty of these horses may not even run, but there could be one in there that will put you in a nice position come March.
I still haven't addressed the main puzzle of the Champion Hurdle. Jezki, The New One, My Tent Or Yours... three strong horses for each of whom a case can be made. This is without mentioning the possibility of Annie Power running (with a mares allowance) and more novices such as Faugheen.
Hurricane Fly supporters will be shocked to hear of odds of 20/1 from SkyBet and Coral but such is the situation with the record-breaking superstar. The Fly's best days must be behind him, even if he would run a lot better with a bit more give in the ground than there was last Tuesday. Returning to the festival next year, Hurricane Fly will be 11 years old, and no horses won at this year's festival over the age of 10. Time has caught up on Mullins' hurdling hero and the glory days must come to an end.
This leaves us with the top 3. Firstly, My Tent Or Yours. This year, the ground suited him perfectly. Conditions are unlikely to be as ideal next year and one would wonder whether or not he's lost his chance. A case could be made that he's a bridle horse and simply not suited to the tough hill at Cheltenham - the jury's out on that one. After two failed attempts at winning over hurdles at the festival, Henderson may feel it's time to give up on that one and give the chasing a shot. He could well prove to be a good thing over fences and the Arkle could be a more successful venture for him. Bet365 and StanJames are the only bookmakers with the hindsight to price him up in this market, and 12/1 could be nice if you're interested.
The New One obviously ran a cracking race to finish 3rd after being badly impeded with Our Conor's fall, leaving jockey Sam Twiston-Davies with a lot of ground to recover, which he did patiently. Any clocking enthusiast will tell you that the ground he covered in the closing stages was immense and his efforts were recognised, making him the justified favourite for next year's race. 6/1 could be value and some may want to take it while it's hot. However, his weak spot is his hurdling and it hasn't showed any huge signs of improving. Also, a step up in the trip could be on the cards and he might not stick with the Champion Hurdle at all next year if 3 miles are calling.
However, he's not without competition, and even if we boldly eliminate My Tent Or Yours from the running, 7/1 (William Hill) seems a big price for Jezki, whose performance was flawless in winning. All of the talk surrounding the comeback of The New One when he looked to be dead and buried has taken away a lot from the praise that The New One deserves for running a fantastic race against arguably the strongest field of this year's festival. The ideal situation here would be that My Tent Or Yours would go chasing in the Arkle and The New One would take a step up in trip, leaving Jezki with considerably less opposition against whom to defend his crown.
Finally, a word on the Mares race. Next year could easily be one too many for Quevega and retirement is an ever-present possibility for the wonder-mare who has dominated this race. 2/1 or 3/1 as quotes for her to win yet again aren't good enough and I would be looking elsewhere. Unfortunately, the bookies haven't priced up the rest of the races yet but I have asked a few for quotes on Annie Power and will update once they give them to me.
My reasoning is that Mullins, after being the boss of this race for so many years, may want to keep a hold of his dominance over the Mares Hurdle, and Annie Power is the perfect weapon at his disposal with which to do so. Whether or not the owners will want to aim bigger that the Mares Hurdle I'm not sure, and chasing is a real possibility I would assume, but if she ran, I would be doubtful that there's another mare around to beat her over her perfect trip.
So much to say, and to think that I've only covered day one! I suppose that's the nature of the festival - so much brilliant racing crammed together, we could discuss it for hours on end. In fairness, the first day is one of the most eventful. I'll be back in due time with more of the 2015 preview and the quotes that hopefully the bookmakers will get back to me with.
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