Winter Derby Trends Ratings.

The flat is back! It's hard to believe that it's only one week since Cheltenham, but already we look forward to the oncoming flat season and speculate as to what surprises it might hold. And the first sign of the flat: The Winter Derby at Lingfield, the year's first group race run on the flat in Britain.

Last year's flat season was a successful one for The Parade Ring with our trends analysis providing us with plenty of winners and staying comfortably in profit throughout the season. Although this analysis isn't the same as last year's (yet), we've decided to try a slightly different type of trends analysis. If the results are good, we may stick with this throughout the season. If not, don't worry, the old-fashioned trends analysis will be back.

Without boring you with the details, here are the main trends we worked with:

• 6 of 10 winners won last time out
• 10 of 10 had won a race that year or were having their first start that year
• 8 of 10 winners won over 1M 2F or further 
• 10 of 10 winners had previously won on the all-weather
• 6 of 10 winners had won at Lingfield
• 10 of 10 winners had won at class 2 level or above
• 10 of 10 winners had won a race worth 14K+

And here are the top-rated horses:

1. Dick Doughtywylie 25/1 & Grandeur 7/4 - 101
2. Farraaj 11/2 - 91
3. Rebellious Guest 16/1 - 84

So, it looks like the market has it right with the favourite, but possibly wrong with an 18/1 shot who rates the same as Grandeur based on trends? Grandeur looks to be a very, very popular favourite in the betting, and if he can overcome his wide draw in stall 14 of 14, the race could be his for the taking. Dick Doughtywylie won the Quebec Stakes over course and distance last December and would make a good each-way bet even before seeing the trends ratings.

A bet on the two of these looks on the cards, and although we wouldn't normally recommend a points system, one may be necessary to keep track of how this goes over the all-weather. So, very simply:

2pts win on Grandeur (7/4)

1pt e/w on Dick Doughtywylie (25/1)*

*Dick Doughtywylie has drifted to a massive 25/1 (Update: 2.30 Saturday)

As always, the very best of luck, and remember, never bet more than you can afford to lose.

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