Since Davy Russel was reduced to speechlessness after winning the Gold Cup on Lord Windermere, the logical minds and romantic imaginations of jumps racing fans have turned to a three-day banquet of racing at Aintree - the legendary Grand National meeting. A few days ago, we posted our initial Grand National ratings. If you don't remember or didn't see, here's a reminder of the top of the ratings:
94 Godsmejudge
94 Raz De Maree
91 Burton Port
91 Pineau De Re
86 Katenko
86 Lion na Bearnai
86 Same Difference
86 Saint Are
86 Quinz
85 Across The Bay
85 Prince De Beauchene
85 Monbeg Dude
85 Night In Milan
85 Theres no Panic
So, since then we've been doing analysis on the horses at the top of our ratings (it should be noted that horses are rated only on their suitability to win the National, not their talent). The idea behind this is a long-held belief which I think was probably first publicized by the one and only Nick Mordin, who claimed that because the race is so unique, basing your betting decisions on a horse's form is pointless. Mordin has been very successful with this method over the years, as have several other punters who based their strategy on his.
However, once we've given the horses these ratings based on, among other things, trends, preparation, and how they fit the profile of a Grand National-winning horse, it is necessary to have a look at form. And so, we've taken a look at the top 4 horses in our ratings. And it's looking good...
Godsmejudge
A Scottish National win along is a fantastic piece of form to have going into the Merseyside Marathon, and our top-rated horse having it is a huge confidence boost. The National may no longer be the test of jumping that it used to be (we will have a much clearer picture after this year's race), but it's still a huge test of stamina, as is the Scottish version. The ground is generally similar in the two races, and, as mentioned by Timeform as they picked our horse (another confidence boost?) both have a slight bias towards prominent runners. So, a good run in the Scottish Grand National can be very helpful when travelling to Aintree the following year, as shown by Auroras Encore in 2013. A win, on the other hand, could be invaluable.
Fortunately for us, Godsmejudge has both under his belt. At Ayr, he led from a long way out and stayed on very strongly to get the win, as well as jumping brilliantly. Even the greatest opponent to ante-post betting would have forgiven you for having a flutter on Godsmejudge for the English National a full year out after seeing his Scottish performance. But to do so would have been wholly unnecessary considering the attractive 28/1 which is on offer now.
He has, however, been pulled up in his last two starts - the second of which occurred in the Grimthorpe and is slightly worrying. At the time, it was reported that there was something not right, and he was a doubt for Aintree. So, we have to decide whether we're prepared to overlook this one setback in order to take the price of 28/1. At the moment, I am.
Raz De Maree
The Grand National has often been a race to throw up a good story for the journalists and romantics, and if Raz De Maree was to win this year for Dessie Hughes after the stable lost its stuperstar hurdler Our Conor at the Cheltenham festival, it would be sure to be an memorable victory similar to those of Red Rum and Aldaniti.
The horse's odds are very attractive - 50/1, to be precise. Based on our ratings, where he's joint top, he could easily be overpriced and underrated. He won two good races last year by staying very well. As mentioned, the Grand National is as much a test of stamina as it has ever been, and Raz De Maree has copious amounts of stamina. Both of these wins came on heavy ground, which is highly unlikely to be present for the National. However, his form on good ground holds up too - he came 2nd in September 2012 to 2013 Irish National winner Liberty Council in a 3m 1f handicap chase at Kilbeggan.
This year, it's been all about the National, and Dessie Hughes must think he's in with a chance as he seems to have been campaigning him all season with this in mind. At 50/1, I would be more than happy to have a bet. He's currently ranked 44th (the top 40 will run) and this means he should get in due to withdrawals elsewhere.
Burton Port
Burton Port is a horse that many people will remember fondly from two years ago. He looked to be one of the most promising horses in National Hunt racing as a novice, when he came 2nd in the RSA at Cheltenham and followed up with a win at Aintree. He went on then to come 2nd in a Hennessy and 4th in the Gold Cup behind Synchronised. However, a hind leg tendon injury then forced him to take a break for all of 18 months, and since coming back, the formlines haven't looked great; 509-82. Not great, maybe, but possibly progressive.
What makes Burton Port interesting is his mark. At his peak, he was rated at 166, and the drop to 145 is a huge one. Jonjo O'Neill is putting a lot of faith in him by throwing him in here after some sub-standard perofrmances. He has had a wind operation which could possibly make a difference and bring him back to past form, and back at his best off such a low mark, Burton Port could be a real danger going into the National.
We're relying here on him pulling something off and getting back to good form on the biggest stage yet, and hopefully the wind operation might be just the thing to bring about that change. There has been some strong market support since the weights were announced, with plenty of shrewd punters realising the threat he poses if back to his best off a low mark. At 33/1, he's a good horse to have on your side.
Pineau De Re
Pineau De Re had a very good run in the Pertemps as his final piece of Aintree preparation, coming 3rd by a very small margin in a strong fielded handicap. His improvement has been clear since changing stables, winning a good handicap chase at Exeter prior to the Pertemps. He's going into this race in very good form and could have a strong chance if his rapid improvement under Richard Newland continues.
Pineau De Re has run over the National fences in the past - in the Becher Chase last December, when he fell at the eighth fence. However, jockey on the day Brian Hughes felt that they could take plenty of positives from the race. He claimed that he felt slightly novicey and will have learned from the run.
He's normally a very strong and reliable jumper and will be well able for good or soft ground at Aintree according to past form. It remains to be seen whether he will stay the full four and a half miles but his win over 3m 4f in the Ulster National last April should give hope on that account.
Again, I wouldn't hesitate to back him at this stage at 20/1.
Bets
So, we have our four ante-post Grand National bets:
Godsmejudge at 28/1
Raz De Maree at 50/1
Burton Port at 33/1
Pineau De Re at 20/1
As always, the best of luck and never bet more than you can afford to lose.
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