Lincoln Handicap Trends Analysis

The flat is truly back today with some great action at Doncaster, and also the richest race in the world in Dubai. The Lincoln Handicap will be the highlight of the day in this part of the world, a massive betting race which signals the beginning of the flat season. Anyone who was following us over the last flat season will remember the tremendous success of our trends analysis, which threw up lovely profits throughout the season last year. Last week, we messed around a bit with other types of trends ratings, which gave us a 25/1 4th in the Winter Derby, and a 40/1 shot in the Irish Lincolnshire who unseated his rider coming out of the stalls. This week, we decided to analyse the Lincoln with the old-style trends analysis, and present to you the full analysis as we did last year. Here it is...

1. Stall

Stall	Runs	Wins	Win%	Places	Place%	Win/Place	Win/Place%
1	17	3	18%	3	18%	6	35%
2	17	0	0%	5	29%	5	29%
3	17	1	6%	2	12%	3	18%
4	17	0	0%	3	18%	3	18%
5	17	0	0%	3	18%	3	18%
6	17	1	6%	5	29%	6	35%
7	16	1	6%	4	25%	5	31%
8	17	1	6%	1	6%	2	12%
9	17	2	12%	1	6%	3	18%
10	17	0	0%	3	18%	3	18%
11	16	0	0%	1	6%	1	6%
12	16	2	13%	4	25%	6	38%
13	17	1	6%	1	6%	2	12%
14	16	0	0%	2	13%	2	13%
15	17	0	0%	1	6%	1	6%
16	16	2	13%	2	13%	4	25%
17	17	0	0%	1	6%	1	6%
18	17	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
19	17	0	0%	2	12%	2	12%
20	17	0	0%	2	12%	2	12%
21	16	1	6%	3	19%	4	25%
22	14	0	0%	1	7%	1	7%

Based on these figures, we're going to watch out for stalls 1, 2, 6, 7, 9, 12, 16 and 21.

2. Place Last Time Out

Place LTO	Runs	Wins	Win%	Places	Place%	Win/Place	Win/Place%
First	46	5	11%	13	28%	18	39%
Second	52	2	4%	4	8%	6	12%
Sixth	28	1	4%	5	18%	6	21%
Seventh	24	0	0%	5	21%	5	21%
Eighth	23	1	4%	6	26%	7	30%
Ninth	29	2	7%	2	7%	4	14%
Tenth	13	0	0%	1	8%	1	8%
Eleventh	15	0	0%	2	13%	2	13%
Twelfth	12	1	8%	0	0%	1	8%
Fourteenth	6	1	17%	0	0%	1	17%
Fifteenth	4	0	0%	1	25%	1	25%
Seventeenth	6	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%

Based on these figures, we're watching for horses who came 1st, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 14th or 15th last time out.

3. Market Position

Mrkt Pos	Runs	Wins	Win%	Places	Place%	Win/Place	Win/Place%
1	19	6	32%	3	16%	9	47%
2	20	1	5%	6	30%	7	35%
3	16	1	6%	2	13%	3	19%
4	17	1	6%	4	24%	5	29%
5	20	1	5%	8	40%	9	45%
6	22	0	0%	5	23%	5	23%
7	19	1	5%	1	5%	2	11%
8	16	0	0%	5	31%	5	31%
9	17	1	6%	0	0%	1	6%
10	18	1	6%	2	11%	3	17%
11	16	0	0%	1	6%	1	6%
12	23	2	9%	1	4%	3	13%
13	13	0	0%	5	38%	5	38%
14	25	1	4%	1	4%	2	8%
15	11	1	9%	1	9%	2	18%
16	13	0	0%	1	8%	1	8%
17	17	0	0%	1	6%	1	6%
18	22	0	0%	1	5%	1	5%
19	6	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%

Form

These are a collection of simpler trends based on form:

4. 8 of the last 10 winners were having their first run of the season

5. 8 of the last 10 winners won 1 of their last 4 starts

6. 10 of the last 10 winners had 2-4 career wins

7. 9 of the last 10 winners had won over 1m+

The Big Table

Basically, we now give a point to each horse for each trend they fit. And here's how they look when we do:

Horse	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	Total
Chookie Royale	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	No	No	4
Tullius	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	5
Levitate	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	5
Ocean Tempest	No	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	4
Burano	Yes	No	No	Yes	No	No	No	2
Mezzotint	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	No	4
Hi There	No	No	No	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	3
Sweet Lightning	No	No	No	Yes	No	No	Yes	2
One Word More	No	No	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	4
Spas Dancer	Yes	Yes	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	5
Tres Coronas	Yes	Yes	No	No	No	No	Yes	3
Whispering Warrior	Yes	Yes	No	No	Yes	No	Yes	4
Robert The Painter	No	Yes	No	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	4
Balty Boys	No	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	4
Gabrials Kaka	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	6
Jacks Revenge	No	Yes	No	Yes	No	No	Yes	3
Unsinkable	No	No	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	No	3
Consign	No	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	No	Yes	4
Off Art	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	6

So, as you can see, the joint winners are Gabrials Kaka and Off Art.

Gabrials Kaka: One of the dangers of only doing this analysis on the day of the race is that the price could be gone by the time you find your horse. Worst case scenario is that the winner has been Pricewised, which, unfortunately, is the case this morning with Gabrials Kaka, who is now the 7/1 favourite for the race after his price collapsed, thanks to Mr Segal.

Off Art: It's slightly dodgy here, as Off Art shouldn't technically pick up the points for market position. He's currently the second favourite while Tullius is 3rd, but they are neck and neck in the betting and there is every chance that Off Art will end up being 3rd in the market, with plenty of money coming in for Tullius. Therefore, I had to award him the points for 3rd in the market.

The bets:

1pt win on Gabrials Kaka 8/1

1pt win on Off Art 8/1

If you would rather stick with last year's staking system by putting 0.5pt e/w on these two, as they are longer than 4/1, feel free to do so (Bet365, 88Sport and William Hill are among the bookmakers offering 5 e/w places). However, the returns can be minimal and last year we certainly would have done better if backing them to win. We will keep a record of P/L on both systems.

As always, the very best of luck and remember to only bet what you can afford to lose.

As usual, Bet365 have a host of offers for today's racing, including the fact that they're paying out on 5 each-way places in the Lincoln. You can receive a 100% deposit bonus when signing up, to the fee of €200 or £200. To sign up, simply click here.