Saturday, 20 June 2015

Hardwicke Stakes Trends Analysis

1) Stall

Stall
Runners
Wins
W%
Places
P%
W/P
W/P%
1
10
0
0%
1
10%
1
10%
2
10
1
10%
5
50%
6
60%
3
9
1
11%
0
0%
1
11%
4
8
1
13%
1
13%
2
25%
5
9
2
22%
1
11%
3
33%
6
8
0
0%
2
25%
2
25%
7
10
1
10%
3
30%
4
40%
We’re going to focus on horses running from stalls 2, 5, 6 and 7. Today, these are Snow Sky, Hillstar, Telescope and Postponed respectively.

2) Place Last Time Out

Place LTO
Runners
Wins
W%
Places
P%
W/P
W/P%
1st
27
5
19%
5
19%
10
37%
2nd
20
2
10%
7
35%
9
45%
3rd
13
2
15%
3
23%
5
38%
4th
4
0
0%
1
25%
1
25%
5th
5
1
20%
0
0%
1
20%
6th
4
0
0%
0
0%
0
0%
7th
7
0
0%
0
0%
0
0%
8th
2
0
0%
1
50%
1
50%
9th
3
0
0%
1
33%
1
33%
10th
2
0
0%
0
0%
0
0%
As usual, this table only takes into account runs in the UK and Ireland (it doesn’t tend to be as much of an issue in this race as in some others). Anyway, we’re looking for a horse which finished in the top 3, 5th, 8th or 9th last time out. These are Hillstar, Postponed, Snow Sky and Telescope (Postponed was 3rd last time out while the others all won).

10-Year Trends

3) 10 of the last 10 winners had run in the last 50 days
Hillstar, Red Cadeaux don’t fit this trend

4) 10 of the last 10 winners had run 1-3 times already that season
Hillstar hasn’t run yet this season, the others all fit this trend

5) 10 of the last 10 winners were either a) a 4yo with 5-11 career starts or b) a 5yo which had finished in the top 4 in the Hardwicke in the past
Red Cadeaux is a 9yo,Sheikhzayedroad is a 6yo, Snow Sky is a 4yo but has had 12 starts, the others fit this trend

6) 10 of the last 10 winners had won a group 2 or 3
All of this year’s runners fit this trend

7) 9 of the last 10 winners had won over 1m 4f+
All of this year’s runners fit this trend

The Big Table

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Total
Eagle Top
No
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
5
Hillstar
Yes
Yes
No
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
5
Postponed
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
7
Red Cadeaux
No
No
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
3
Sheikhzayedroad
No
No
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
4
Snow Sky
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
6
Telescope
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
7

So, we have our shortlist:
  1. Postponed, Telescope – 7
  2. Snow Sky – 6

Again, it’s probably a no-bet race here, although you could easily dutch the two at the top (and Snow Sky who misses out on a perfect record by the smallest of margins).
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Diamond Jubilee Stakes Trends Analysis

Our trends analysis provided the winner of the Diamond Jubilee Stakes last year – let’s see if it can do the same this time.

1) Stall

Stall
Runners
Wins
W%
Places
P%
W/P
W/P%
1
10
0
0%
0
0%
0
0%
2
10
0
0%
0
0%
0
0%
3
7
1
14%
0
0%
1
14%
4
9
1
11%
0
0%
1
11%
5
10
0
0%
1
10%
1
10%
6
10
1
10%
3
30%
4
40%
7
10
0
0%
2
20%
2
20%
8
10
0
0%
1
10%
1
10%
9
8
0
0%
0
0%
0
0%
10
10
0
0%
0
0%
0
0%
11
10
0
0%
3
30%
3
30%
12
10
2
20%
2
20%
4
40%
13
9
0
0%
2
22%
2
22%
14
10
0
0%
2
20%
2
20%
15
9
2
22%
0
0%
2
22%

Based on data from the last 10 runnings of the race at Ascot (we include 2004 instead of 2005 as the 2005 race was run at York) we’re focusing on horses drawn in stalls 6, 11, 12, 13 and 15.

2) Place Last Time Out

Place LTO
Runners
Wins
W%
Places
P%
W/P
W/P%
1st
39
1
3%
7
18%
8
21%
2nd
24
2
8%
3
13%
5
21%
3rd
17
1
6%
2
12%
3
18%
4th
16
1
6%
1
6%
2
13%
5th
13
1
8%
1
8%
2
15%
6th
11
0
0%
2
18%
2
18%
7th
11
1
9%
1
9%
2
18%
8th
6
0
0%
0
0%
0
0%
9th
3
0
0%
0
0%
0
0%
10th
6
1
17%
0
0%
1
17%
11th
3
1
33%
1
33%
2
67%
12th
2
0
0%
0
0%
0
0%
13th
1
0
0%
0
0%
0
0%
15th
1
0
0%
1
100%
1
100%
19th
1
0
0%
0
0%
0
0%
21st
1
0
0%
0
0%
0
0%

As usual, this table only includes races run in the UK and Ireland so this skews the data a bit. However, we’re going to note horses which finished in the top 2 last time out, as well as those which finished 5th, 6th, 7th, 10th, 11th or 15th on their last start.

10-Year Trends

3) 10 of the last 10 winners had won at listed level or higher
All of this year’s runners fit this trend

4) 9 of the last 10 winners had run in the last 45 days
Brazen Beau, Due Diligence, Moviesta, Undrafted and Wadjina don’t fit this trend

5) 9 of the last 10 winners had won over 6f
Ansgar, Pearl Secret and Wandjina don’t fit this trend

6) 8 of the last 10 winners had finished in the top 4 in a group 1 race over 5f or 6f
Astaire, Brazen Beau, Due Diligence, Gordon Lord Byron, Moviesta, Music Master, Pearl Secret, Tropics and Undrafted fit this trend

7) 7 of the last 10 winners, including 7 of the last 8, had 5-17 previous career starts
Ansgar, Caspar Netscher, Gordon Lord Byron, Moviesta, Tropics and Undrafted don’t fit this trend

The Big Table

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Total
Ansgar (IRE)
No
No
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
2
Astaire (IRE)
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
6
Brazen Beau (AUS)
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
6
Caspar Netscher
No
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
3
Due Diligence (USA)
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
6
Glass Office
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
6
Gordon Lord Byron (IRE)
No
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
4
Moviesta (USA)
No
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
No
3
Music Master
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
6
Mustajeeb
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
5
Pearl Secret
No
No
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
4
Tropics (USA)
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
5
Undrafted (USA)
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
No
5
Wandjina (AUS)
No
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
Yes
3
Lucky Kristale
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
5


With 5 horses joint at the top, this has to be a no-bet race for us.
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