Our trends analysis provided the winner of the Diamond
Jubilee Stakes last year – let’s see if it can do the same this time.
1) Stall
|
Stall
|
Runners
|
Wins
|
W%
|
Places
|
P%
|
W/P
|
W/P%
|
|
1
|
10
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
|
2
|
10
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
|
3
|
7
|
1
|
14%
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
14%
|
|
4
|
9
|
1
|
11%
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
11%
|
|
5
|
10
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
10%
|
1
|
10%
|
|
6
|
10
|
1
|
10%
|
3
|
30%
|
4
|
40%
|
|
7
|
10
|
0
|
0%
|
2
|
20%
|
2
|
20%
|
|
8
|
10
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
10%
|
1
|
10%
|
|
9
|
8
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
|
10
|
10
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
|
11
|
10
|
0
|
0%
|
3
|
30%
|
3
|
30%
|
|
12
|
10
|
2
|
20%
|
2
|
20%
|
4
|
40%
|
|
13
|
9
|
0
|
0%
|
2
|
22%
|
2
|
22%
|
|
14
|
10
|
0
|
0%
|
2
|
20%
|
2
|
20%
|
|
15
|
9
|
2
|
22%
|
0
|
0%
|
2
|
22%
|
Based on data from the last 10 runnings of the race at Ascot
(we include 2004 instead of 2005 as the 2005 race was run at York) we’re
focusing on horses drawn in stalls 6, 11, 12, 13 and 15.
2) Place Last Time Out
|
Place
LTO
|
Runners
|
Wins
|
W%
|
Places
|
P%
|
W/P
|
W/P%
|
|
1st
|
39
|
1
|
3%
|
7
|
18%
|
8
|
21%
|
|
2nd
|
24
|
2
|
8%
|
3
|
13%
|
5
|
21%
|
|
3rd
|
17
|
1
|
6%
|
2
|
12%
|
3
|
18%
|
|
4th
|
16
|
1
|
6%
|
1
|
6%
|
2
|
13%
|
|
5th
|
13
|
1
|
8%
|
1
|
8%
|
2
|
15%
|
|
6th
|
11
|
0
|
0%
|
2
|
18%
|
2
|
18%
|
|
7th
|
11
|
1
|
9%
|
1
|
9%
|
2
|
18%
|
|
8th
|
6
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
|
9th
|
3
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
|
10th
|
6
|
1
|
17%
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
17%
|
|
11th
|
3
|
1
|
33%
|
1
|
33%
|
2
|
67%
|
|
12th
|
2
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
|
13th
|
1
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
|
15th
|
1
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
100%
|
1
|
100%
|
|
19th
|
1
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
|
21st
|
1
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
As usual, this table only includes races run in the UK and
Ireland so this skews the data a bit. However, we’re going to note horses which
finished in the top 2 last time out, as well as those which finished 5th,
6th, 7th, 10th, 11th or 15th
on their last start.
10-Year Trends
3) 10 of the last 10 winners had won at listed level or
higher
All of this year’s
runners fit this trend
4) 9 of the last 10 winners had run in the last 45 days
Brazen Beau, Due
Diligence, Moviesta, Undrafted and Wadjina don’t fit this trend
5) 9 of the last 10 winners had won over 6f
Ansgar, Pearl Secret
and Wandjina don’t fit this trend
6) 8 of the last 10 winners had finished in the top 4 in a
group 1 race over 5f or 6f
Astaire, Brazen Beau,
Due Diligence, Gordon Lord Byron, Moviesta, Music Master, Pearl Secret, Tropics
and Undrafted fit this trend
7) 7 of the last 10 winners, including 7 of the last 8, had
5-17 previous career starts
Ansgar, Caspar
Netscher, Gordon Lord Byron, Moviesta, Tropics and Undrafted don’t fit this
trend
The Big Table
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
Total
|
|
|
Ansgar
(IRE)
|
No
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
No
|
No
|
2
|
|
Astaire
(IRE)
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
6
|
|
Brazen
Beau (AUS)
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
6
|
|
Caspar
Netscher
|
No
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
No
|
3
|
|
Due
Diligence (USA)
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
6
|
|
Glass
Office
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
6
|
|
Gordon
Lord Byron (IRE)
|
No
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
4
|
|
Moviesta
(USA)
|
No
|
No
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
3
|
|
Music
Master
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
6
|
|
Mustajeeb
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
5
|
|
Pearl
Secret
|
No
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
4
|
|
Tropics
(USA)
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
5
|
|
Undrafted
(USA)
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
5
|
|
Wandjina
(AUS)
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
No
|
No
|
Yes
|
3
|
|
Lucky
Kristale
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
5
|
With 5 horses joint at the top, this has to be a no-bet race
for us.
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