Firstly, an explanation for those wondering – some technical
setbacks meant that we lost a lot of prepared content for the Derby and the
Oaks that couldn’t be recovered in time for the big days. In fact, we should
have been previewing every single race at Epsom this weekend in detail but due
to other commitments couldn’t possibly have redone the many hours of work which
had been lost.
However, for our trends analysis to miss out on Derby day
would be a massive loss – in 2013, the Derby was one of the first ever races
previewed by our trends analysis and provided us with one of our first winners
at 9/1. The following year it repeated the feat, and although it was a shorter
price, there’s only one winner and the trends analysis selected it.
Although the trends analysis has developed over time (two
years ago you would have seen tables regarding days since their last run and positions
in the market) but we think it has improved and so we’ll go into this Derby
with confidence, provided the trends analysis actually gives us a bet. Let’s
see...
1) Stall
Stall
|
Runners
|
Wins
|
W%
|
Places
|
P%
|
W/P
|
W/P%
|
1
|
9
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
2
|
9
|
0
|
0%
|
3
|
33%
|
3
|
33%
|
3
|
10
|
1
|
10%
|
1
|
10%
|
2
|
20%
|
4
|
9
|
1
|
11%
|
1
|
11%
|
2
|
22%
|
5
|
10
|
2
|
20%
|
1
|
10%
|
3
|
30%
|
6
|
10
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
10%
|
1
|
10%
|
7
|
10
|
1
|
10%
|
1
|
10%
|
2
|
20%
|
8
|
10
|
1
|
10%
|
1
|
10%
|
2
|
20%
|
9
|
10
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
10
|
9
|
2
|
22%
|
2
|
22%
|
4
|
44%
|
11
|
9
|
0
|
0%
|
4
|
44%
|
4
|
44%
|
12
|
9
|
1
|
11%
|
2
|
22%
|
3
|
33%
|
13
|
5
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
20%
|
1
|
20%
|
14
|
5
|
1
|
20%
|
1
|
20%
|
2
|
40%
|
15
|
4
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
16
|
4
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
17
|
3
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
18
|
2
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
50%
|
1
|
50%
|
19
|
1
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
Based on what we see above, the horses we’re going to focus
on are those running from stalls 2, 5, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14 and 18. Today these
are Hans Holbein (2), Moheet (5), Jack Hobbs (10), Rogue Runner (11) and
Success Days (12).
2) Place Last Time Out
Place LTO
|
Runners
|
Wins
|
W%
|
Places
|
P%
|
W/P
|
W/P%
|
1st
|
65
|
5
|
8%
|
12
|
18%
|
17
|
26%
|
2nd
|
26
|
3
|
12%
|
4
|
15%
|
7
|
27%
|
3rd
|
18
|
1
|
6%
|
2
|
11%
|
3
|
17%
|
4th
|
4
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
5th
|
5
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
20%
|
1
|
20%
|
6th
|
5
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
7th
|
1
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
8th
|
5
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
20%
|
1
|
20%
|
9th
|
1
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
14th
|
1
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
Based on this we’ll be looking out for horses which finished
1st (Golden Horn, Hans Holbein, Kilimanjaro, Storm The Stars,
Success Days), 2nd (Epicuris, Giovanni Canaletto, Jack Hobbs), 5th
(Rogue Runner) or 8th (Moheet) last time out.
We need to remember that the data in this particular table
only covers races in the UK and Ireland. This means that if a horse had their
last run in France and their second last run in Ireland, their second last run
will be included as their last run. Furthermore, 7 horses have run in the last
10 years without having ever run in the UK or Ireland, including one Derby
winner, and none of these are included in the table. This just leads to some
slight inaccuracies in the data.
10-Year Trends
3) 10 of the last 10 winners were sired by a horse with a
stamina index of 9.0F+
Carbon Dating and
Success Days don’t fit this trend
4) 10 of the last 10 winners had won at least 50% of their
career starts
Carbon Dating is yet
to win a race from 4 starts, Giovanni Canaletto has only won 1 from 3, Moheet
had only won 1 from 3, Storm The Stars has won 2 from 6 – all the others fit
this trend
5) 10 of the last 10 winners had run 1 or 2 times that year
Carbon Dating has been
out 4 times this year, Hans Holbein has been seen 3 times, Storm The Stars has
run 4 times and Success Days has run 3 times – the others fit this trend
6) 10 of the last 10 winners had finished in the top 3 on all
of their starts that year
Carbon Dating, Moheet,
Rogue Runner and Storm The Stars don’t fit this trend
7) 10 of the last 10 winners had run in the last 35 days
Epicuris is the only
runner not to fit this trend
8) 9 of the last 10 winners had 2-5 career starts
Elm Park, Storm The
Stars and Success Days have all run 6 times and so do not fit this trend.
9) 9 of the last 10 winners had won a group race
The only group winners
in the field are Elm Park, Epicuris, Golden Horn, Hans Holbein and Success
Days.
The Big Table
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
9
|
Total
|
|
Carbon Dating
|
No
|
No
|
No
|
No
|
No
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
2
|
Elm Park
|
No
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
6
|
Epicuris
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
7
|
Giovanni Canaletto
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
6
|
Golden Horn
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
8
|
Hans Holbein
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
8
|
Jack Hobbs
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
8
|
Kilimanjaro
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
7
|
Moheet
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
6
|
Rogue Runner
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
7
|
Storm The Stars
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
No
|
No
|
Yes
|
No
|
No
|
3
|
Success Days
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
6
|
It’s fair to say that this is exactly what we didn’t want – three
horses finishing on the same score in the big table including the top 2 in the
market. Golden Horn is currently the 15/8 favourite (Sportsbook), Jack Hobbs is
5/1 (Bet365, Paddy Power, StanJames, BetVictor) and Hans Holbein is 16/1
generally. The first misses out based on
the draw – he runs from stall 8 which has provided one winner and one place
from 10 runners in 10 years. Jack Hobbs misses out based on the fact that he
hasn’t won a group race – he was 2nd in the Dante behind Golden Horn
on his sole group start. Hans Holbein has run one too many times this year to
have a perfect record.
Officially, it is unfortunately a no-bet race but those are
our three horses.
No comments:
Post a Comment