Duke Of Cambridge Stakes Trends Guide

Date	Winner	Odds	Trainer	Age	Jockey	Stall
18.06.2014	Integral	9/4	Sir Michael Stoute	4	Ryan Moore	9
19.06.2013	Duntle (IRE)	100/30	David Wachman	4	W M Lordan	1
20.06.2012	Joviality	11/1	John Gosden	4	William Buick	3
15.06.2011	Lolly For Dolly (IRE)	11/1	T Stack	4	W M Lordan	5
16.06.2010	Strawberrydaiquiri	9/2	Sir Michael Stoute	4	Ryan Moore	10
17.06.2009	Spacious	10/1	J R Fanshawe	4	Johnny Murtagh	4
18.06.2008	Sabana Perdida (IRE)	4/1	A De Royer-Dupre	5	C-P Lemaire	6
20.06.2007	Nannina	3/1	John Gosden	4	Jimmy Fortune	4
21.06.2006	Soviet Song (IRE)	11/8	J R Fanshawe	6	Jamie Spencer	7
15.06.2005	Peeress	14/1	Sir Michael Stoute	4	Mick Kinnane	2
16.06.2004	Favourable Terms	13/2	Sir Michael Stoute	4	Kieran Fallon	8

Only eleven years old, this isn’t known as a strong trends race. Nevertheless, we’ll do our best.

Age	Runners	Wins	W%	Places	P%	W/P	W/P%
4	78	8	10%	11	14%	19	24%
5	26	1	4%	8	31%	9	35%
6	3	1	33%	1	33%	2	67%
7	1	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%

We’ll begin by looking at age. The winner’s generally a 4yo. However, 4yos made up 72% of the total field in the last 10 years so it’s no surprise to see them having been 8 of the last 10 winners (including the last 6). In fact, considering the percentage of the field they’ve made up, they’ve actually underperformed in having only filled 63% of the total places up for grabs. The 8 placed 5yos along with one winner mean that 5yos have taken up 24% of the field and 30% of the places, while 6yos have done extremely well with a win and a place from just two runners.

Breeding	Runners	Wins	W%	Places	P%	W/P	W/P%
AUS	1	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
FR	7	0	0%	1	14%	1	14%
GB	50	6	12%	11	22%	17	34%
GER	2	0	0%	1	50%	1	50%
IRE	35	4	11%	5	14%	9	26%
JPN	1	0	0%	1	100%	1	100%
NZ	1	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
SAF	1	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
USA	10	0	0%	1	10%	1	10%

Next, breeding. All winners have been bred in the UK or Ireland. The British-bred have the stand-out record, and the UK and Ireland have, between them, taken up 26 of the 30 places on offer from 78% of the field. The others have been fairly unsuccessful – France managed just 1 place from 7 runners and the USA just 1 place from 10. Japan’s one representative has placed.

Stall	Runners	Wins	W%	Places	P%	W/P	W/P%
1	10	1	10%	0	0%	1	10%
2	10	0	0%	1	10%	1	10%
3	10	1	10%	3	30%	4	40%
4	10	2	20%	1	10%	3	30%
5	9	1	11%	4	44%	5	56%
6	10	1	10%	1	10%	2	20%
7	9	1	11%	4	44%	5	56%
8	9	1	11%	1	11%	2	22%
9	10	1	10%	3	30%	4	40%
10	8	1	13%	0	0%	1	13%
11	6	0	0%	1	17%	1	17%
12	4	0	0%	1	25%	1	25%
13	4	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
14	1	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%

As usual, when we look at the draw, we exclude the 2005 race which was run at York and include the 2004 race instead. The most successful stalls on the table on the left are 3, 4, 5, 7 and 9 – if we group them together to look at stalls 3-9, we get 8 wins and a further 17 places, giving these stalls a 12% win strike rate and a 37% win/place strike rate. Higher stalls have a 4% win strike rate and 13% win/place, while lower stalls have 5% wins and 10% win/place. Therefore, we’re going to pay attention to those stalls in particular.

It’s when we attempt to research trends based on form that we draw a blank. There are very few trends running through the past results which we can use to our advantage. The last 4 winners had finished in the top 2 last time out, 9 of the last 10 finished in the top 3 last time out. 8 of the last 10 winners had finished in the top 4 on both of their last two starts.

Trainer	Runners	Wins	W%	Places	P%	W/P	W/P%
Sir Michael Stoute	10	3	30%	4	40%	7	70%
Saeed Bin Suroor	7	0	0%	2	29%	2	29%
James Fanshawe	6	2	33%	2	33%	4	67%
Mick Channon	6	0	0%	1	17%	1	17%

Moving on to  trainers, Sir Michael Stoute is the man to watch in the race – 3 of the last 10 winners (and 4 of the last 11) and a further 4 places from just 10 runners in the last 10 years. It’s fair to say that whatever Stoute declares in the race should be respected. James Fanshawe also holds a strong record with 2 winners and 2 places from 6 runners in the last 10 years. John Gosden has picked up 2 wins from 3 runners while Alain de Royer-Dupre has achieved one win and one place from the same amount of runners. Henry Cecil managed 2 places from 3 runners.

Jockey	Runners	Wins	W%	Places	P%	W/P	W/P%
Ryan Moore	8	2	25%	3	38%	5	63%
Jamie Spencer	7	1	14%	2	29%	3	43%
Richard Hughes	7	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
Frankie Dettori	7	0	0%	2	29%	2	29%
Kieran Fallon	6	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
Johnny Murtagh	5	1	20%	3	60%	4	80%
William Buick	5	1	20%	0	0%	1	20%

As for jockeys, Ryan Moore’s record stands out, with 2 wins and 3 places from his 8 rides in the last 10 years. Wayne Lordan won with both of his 2 rides in the last 10 years, while Jimmy Fortune and Christophe Lemaire each managed a win and a place from 3 rides. Richard Hughes has drawn a blank from his 7 rides, as has Kieran Fallon from his 6.

Taking a quick look at stallions, the progeny of Cape Cross have won this twice as well as providing a place from 6 runners. The progeny of Dansili have won it once and placed 3 times from the same amount of runners. Oratorio and Dalakhani have won with their sole representatives, Footstepsinthesand has had 2 places from 3 runners and Marju and Nayef have each had a win and a place from 2 runners in the race in the last 10 years.

Summary

•          The winner is generally a 4yo but older horses have done well from a small representation
•          All winners have been British or Irish-bred, with the British probably having the edge
•          Stalls 3-9 are worth focusing on
•          Top 3 last time out and top 4 on both of last 2 starts
•          Sir Michael Stoute, James Fanshawe, John Gosden, Alain de Royer-Dupre all worth watching out for
•          Ryan Moore, Wayne Lordan, Jimmy Fortune, Christophe Lemaire have done well – Richard Hughes and Kieran Fallon haven’t
•          Progeny of Cape Cross, Dansili, Marju, Nayef have done well