Prince Of Wales's Stakes Trends Guide

Year	Winner	Odds	Trainer	Age	Jockey	Stall
2014	The Fugue	11/2	John Gosden	5	William Buick	7
2013	Al Kazeem	11/4	Roger Charlton	5	James Doyle	9
2012	So You Think (NZ)	4/5	Aidan O’Brien	6	Joseph O’Brien	7
2011	Rewilding	17/2	Mahmood Al Zarooni	4	Frankie Dettori	6
2010	Byword	5/2	Andre Fabre	4	Maxime Guyon	5
2009	Vision Detat (FR)	4/1	Eric Libaud	4	Olivier Peslier	2
2008	Duke Of Marmalade (IRE)	Evens	Aidan O’Brien	4	Johnny Murtagh	1
2007	Manduro (GER)	15/8	Andre Fabre	5	S Pasquier	4
2006	Ouija Board	8/1	Ed Dunlop	5	Olivier Peslier	3
2005	Azamour (IRE)	11/8	John Oxx	4	Mick Kinane	3
2004	Rakti	3/1	M A Jarvis	5	Philip Robinson	2
2003	Nayef (USA)	5/1	M P Tregoning	5	Richard Hills	6
2002	Grandera (IRE)	4/1	Saeed Bin Suroor	4	Frankie Dettori	12
2001	Fantastic Light (USA)	100/30	Saeed Bin Suroor	5	Frankie Dettori	2
2000	Dubai Millennium	5/4	Saeed Bin Suroor	4	J D Bailey	2

The only group 1 on day two is the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes which tends to feature the best middle-distance older horses – a quick look at the past winners tells its own story, with top-class horses winning almost every year. Top-class horses have also lost the race; Treve last year is the first example to spring to mind along with the likes of So You Think (who later won it) and Dylan Thomas.

This is a fairly open race so we can look at a number of different factors. We’ll begin with gender in noting that fillies and mares have had 7 representatives in the last 10 years, among them 2 winners and 2 places. 3 of these 7 ran in last year’s race – winner The Fugue, beaten favourite Treve in 3^rd and Dank, who finished 5^th. So, it’s fair to say that the females have performed well in the race.

Age	Runners	Wins	W%	Places	P%	W/P	W/P%
4	49	5	10%	12	24%	17	35%
5	28	4	14%	4	14%	8	29%
6	10	1	10%	1	10%	2	20%
7	2	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
8	1	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%

Now, let’s look at age. Just over half of the total field in the last 10 years have been 4yos – 49 4yos have run and 41 older horses, meaning that 4yos took up 54% of the total field. This 54% managed to fill 63% of the total places, so, in theory, they’re punching above their weight. 5 of the last 10 winners were 4yos. As for the other 5, 4 had run in the race the previous year (the exception was Al Kazeem who barely saw the racecourse the previous year. Only 2 horses over the age of 5 have won this in over 30 years – one was So You Think in 2012 who lost the 2012 renewal by just a neck and the other was Muhtarram who won as a 6yo in 1995 after winning as a 5yo the previous year.

Breeding	Runners	Wins	W%	Places	P%	W/P	W/P%
GB	34	5	15%	5	15%	10	29%
IRE	32	2	6%	4	13%	6	19%
USA	10	0	0%	4	40%	4	40%
FR	6	1	17%	2	33%	3	50%
GER	4	1	25%	0	0%	1	25%
NZ	2	1	50%	1	50%	2	100%
AUS	1	0	0%	1	100%	1	100%
SAF	1	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%

Next up, breeding. A quick glance at the list of winners above shows that horses of various origins have won this race in recent years – 5 different origins in fact, British-bred, Irish-bred, French-bred, German-bred and New Zealand-bred. With this in mind, it’s hard to rule out any countries, but Ireland’s record is fairly poor considering the fact that they’ve had about as many representatives in the race as the UK – the Irish have underperformed, taking up about 22% of the places from 36% of the total field.

Stall	Runners	Wins	W%	Places	P%	W/P	W/P%
1	10	1	10%	0	0%	1	10%
2	9	2	22%	2	22%	4	44%
3	10	1	10%	0	0%	1	10%
4	10	1	10%	3	30%	4	40%
5	10	1	10%	1	10%	2	20%
6	9	1	11%	2	22%	3	33%
7	10	2	20%	4	40%	6	60%
8	7	0	0%	3	43%	3	43%
9	5	1	20%	2	40%	3	60%
10	4	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
11	5	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
12	2	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
13	1	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%

Now, as usual, when we look at the draw we exclude data from 2005 (when the race was run at York) and include data from 2004 (to make sure that the data is still based over a 10-year period). It’s hard to pinpoint any specific advantage, with every stall from 1-9 having provided a winner in the last 10 years, with the exception of 7, which has a 43% place rate. If we had to pick out some sort of advantage, it would be towards stalls 6-9 – a combined record of 4 wins and 11 places from 31 runners makes for a 48% win/place rate. Furthermore, runners from these stalls have made up 56% of the total places from 34% of the total runners. However, stalls 2 and 4 have equally impressive records and it’s hard to single out any.

The trends based on performance and preparation for the race simply suggest that we need a classy horse which is in form and proven over the distance – 9 of the last 10 were group 1 winners so this seems a must, while all of the last 10 had their last start in a group 1 race over between 1m 1f and 1m 4f.

The Fugue put in a bad performance to finish 11^th at Meydan on Dubai World Cup night prior to her win last year, but she was the first winner in the last 10 years not to have finished in the top 4 on all of his starts so far that year. All of the last 10 had had between 1 and 3 starts already that year and 8 of the last 10 finished in the top 2 on their last start. As for the trip, all of the last 10 winners had won over 1m 2f or further.

Trainer	Runners	Wins	W%	Places	P%	W/P	W/P%
Aidan O'Brien	12	2	17%	4	33%	6	50%
John Gosden	8	1	13%	3	38%	4	50%
Sir Michael Stoute	7	0	0%	2	29%	2	29%
Saeed Bin Suroor	5	0	0%	2	40%	2	40%

Looking at trainers, Aidan O’Brien and John Gosden have both thrown a high number of runners at the race in the last 10 years and both have seen half of their runners make the frame. Eric Libaud, John Oxx and Roger Charlton have all won with their sole representative in the last decade while Andre Fabre has a strong record of 2 winners from 3 runners.

Jockey	Runners	Wins	W%	Places	P%	W/P	W/P%
Frankie Dettori	9	1	11%	3	33%	4	44%
Ryan Moore	7	0	0%	3	43%	3	43%
Jamie Spencer	5	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%

As for jockeys, there’s nothing wrong with Frankie Dettori’s win and 3 places from 9 runners or Ryan Moore’s 3 places from 7 runners. Olivier Peslier’s 2 wins from 3 rides is very impressive while James Doyle and Maxime Guyon have each had one ride and one win. William Buick and Joseph O’Brien both have a win and a place from 4 rides in the race.

A few stallions’ records stand out – High Chaparral has gained a win and a place from 3 runners, while Dansili has an identical record. Danehill has managed a win and 3 places from 5 runners. Night Shift, Tiger Hill and Chichicastenago each won with their sole runner.

Summary

•         4yos have done well, as well as 5yos which ran in the race last year
•          Irish-bred horses have a fairly poor record
•          Stalls 6-9 have a good record but the wins have been very spread out across the stalls
•          The horse must be proven at group 1 standard
•          A good run in a group 1 last time out is preferable
•          A win over 1m 2f+ is necessary
•          Aidan O’Brien and John Gosden are worth noting while Andre Fabre has done very well
•          Frankie Dettori, Ryan Moore are worth noting, Olivier Peslier has done very well and William Buick and Joseph O’Brien have done reasonably well
•          Progeny of High Chaparral, Dansili and Danehill worth following