Saturday, 20 June 2015

Hardwicke Stakes Trends Analysis

1) Stall

Stall
Runners
Wins
W%
Places
P%
W/P
W/P%
1
10
0
0%
1
10%
1
10%
2
10
1
10%
5
50%
6
60%
3
9
1
11%
0
0%
1
11%
4
8
1
13%
1
13%
2
25%
5
9
2
22%
1
11%
3
33%
6
8
0
0%
2
25%
2
25%
7
10
1
10%
3
30%
4
40%
We’re going to focus on horses running from stalls 2, 5, 6 and 7. Today, these are Snow Sky, Hillstar, Telescope and Postponed respectively.

2) Place Last Time Out

Place LTO
Runners
Wins
W%
Places
P%
W/P
W/P%
1st
27
5
19%
5
19%
10
37%
2nd
20
2
10%
7
35%
9
45%
3rd
13
2
15%
3
23%
5
38%
4th
4
0
0%
1
25%
1
25%
5th
5
1
20%
0
0%
1
20%
6th
4
0
0%
0
0%
0
0%
7th
7
0
0%
0
0%
0
0%
8th
2
0
0%
1
50%
1
50%
9th
3
0
0%
1
33%
1
33%
10th
2
0
0%
0
0%
0
0%
As usual, this table only takes into account runs in the UK and Ireland (it doesn’t tend to be as much of an issue in this race as in some others). Anyway, we’re looking for a horse which finished in the top 3, 5th, 8th or 9th last time out. These are Hillstar, Postponed, Snow Sky and Telescope (Postponed was 3rd last time out while the others all won).

10-Year Trends

3) 10 of the last 10 winners had run in the last 50 days
Hillstar, Red Cadeaux don’t fit this trend

4) 10 of the last 10 winners had run 1-3 times already that season
Hillstar hasn’t run yet this season, the others all fit this trend

5) 10 of the last 10 winners were either a) a 4yo with 5-11 career starts or b) a 5yo which had finished in the top 4 in the Hardwicke in the past
Red Cadeaux is a 9yo,Sheikhzayedroad is a 6yo, Snow Sky is a 4yo but has had 12 starts, the others fit this trend

6) 10 of the last 10 winners had won a group 2 or 3
All of this year’s runners fit this trend

7) 9 of the last 10 winners had won over 1m 4f+
All of this year’s runners fit this trend

The Big Table

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Total
Eagle Top
No
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
5
Hillstar
Yes
Yes
No
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
5
Postponed
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
7
Red Cadeaux
No
No
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
3
Sheikhzayedroad
No
No
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
4
Snow Sky
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
6
Telescope
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
7

So, we have our shortlist:
  1. Postponed, Telescope – 7
  2. Snow Sky – 6

Again, it’s probably a no-bet race here, although you could easily dutch the two at the top (and Snow Sky who misses out on a perfect record by the smallest of margins).

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