1) Stall
Stall
|
Runners
|
Wins
|
W%
|
Places
|
P%
|
W/P
|
W/P%
|
1
|
10
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
10%
|
1
|
10%
|
2
|
10
|
1
|
10%
|
5
|
50%
|
6
|
60%
|
3
|
9
|
1
|
11%
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
11%
|
4
|
8
|
1
|
13%
|
1
|
13%
|
2
|
25%
|
5
|
9
|
2
|
22%
|
1
|
11%
|
3
|
33%
|
6
|
8
|
0
|
0%
|
2
|
25%
|
2
|
25%
|
7
|
10
|
1
|
10%
|
3
|
30%
|
4
|
40%
|
We’re going to focus on horses running from stalls 2, 5, 6
and 7. Today, these are Snow Sky, Hillstar, Telescope and Postponed
respectively.
2) Place Last Time Out
Place
LTO
|
Runners
|
Wins
|
W%
|
Places
|
P%
|
W/P
|
W/P%
|
1st
|
27
|
5
|
19%
|
5
|
19%
|
10
|
37%
|
2nd
|
20
|
2
|
10%
|
7
|
35%
|
9
|
45%
|
3rd
|
13
|
2
|
15%
|
3
|
23%
|
5
|
38%
|
4th
|
4
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
25%
|
1
|
25%
|
5th
|
5
|
1
|
20%
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
20%
|
6th
|
4
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
7th
|
7
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
8th
|
2
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
50%
|
1
|
50%
|
9th
|
3
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
33%
|
1
|
33%
|
10th
|
2
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
As usual, this table only takes into account runs in the UK
and Ireland (it doesn’t tend to be as much of an issue in this race as in some
others). Anyway, we’re looking for a horse which finished in the top 3, 5th,
8th or 9th last time out. These are Hillstar, Postponed,
Snow Sky and Telescope (Postponed was 3rd last time out while the
others all won).
10-Year Trends
3) 10 of the last 10 winners had run in the last 50 days
Hillstar, Red Cadeaux
don’t fit this trend
4) 10 of the last 10 winners had run 1-3 times already that
season
Hillstar hasn’t run
yet this season, the others all fit this trend
5) 10 of the last 10 winners were either a) a 4yo with 5-11
career starts or b) a 5yo which had finished in the top 4 in the Hardwicke in
the past
Red Cadeaux is a 9yo,Sheikhzayedroad
is a 6yo, Snow Sky is a 4yo but has had 12 starts, the others fit this trend
6) 10 of the last 10 winners had won a group 2 or 3
All of this year’s
runners fit this trend
7) 9 of the last 10 winners had won over 1m 4f+
All of this year’s
runners fit this trend
The Big Table
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
Total
|
|
Eagle
Top
|
No
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
5
|
Hillstar
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
5
|
Postponed
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
7
|
Red
Cadeaux
|
No
|
No
|
No
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
3
|
Sheikhzayedroad
|
No
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
4
|
Snow
Sky
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
6
|
Telescope
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
7
|
So, we have our shortlist:
- Postponed, Telescope – 7
- Snow Sky – 6
Again, it’s probably a no-bet race here, although you could
easily dutch the two at the top (and Snow Sky who misses out on a perfect
record by the smallest of margins).
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