Coventry Stakes Trends Guide

Year	Winner	Odds	Trainer	Jockey	Stall
2014	The Wow Signal (IRE)	5/1	J J Quinn	Frankie Dettori	1
2013	War Command (USA)	20/1	Aidan O’Brien	J A Heffernan	15
2012	Dawn Approach (IRE)	7/2	Jim Bolger	Kevin Manning	13
2011	Power	4/1	Aidan O’Brien	Ryan Moore	19
2010	Strong Suit (USA)	15/8	Richard Hannon	Richard Hughes	8
2009	Canford Cliffs (IRE)	7/4	Richard Hannon	Richard Hughes	6
2008	Art Connoisseur (IRE)	8/1	M L W Bell	Jamie Spencer	17
2007	Henrythenavigator (USA)	11/4	Aidan O’Brien	Mick Kinane	4
2006	Hellvelyn	4/1	B Smart	Ted Durcan	16
2005	Red Clubs (IRE)	11/2	B W Hills	Michael Hills	2
2004	Iceman	5/1	John Gosden	Kieran Fallon	4
2003	Three Valleys (USA)	7/1	Roger Charlton	Richard Hughes	9
2002	Statue Of Liberty (USA)	5/2	Aidan O’Brien	Mick Kinane	9
2001	Landseer	20/1	Aidan O’Brien	Jamie Spencer	5
2000	Cd Europe (IRE)	8/1	Mick Channon	Steve Drowne	8
1999	Fasliyev (USA)	15/8	Aidan O’Brien	Mick Kinane	3

A decent-sized field and plenty of unknown quantities don’t stop the punters from maintaining the upper hand on day one with the Coventry Stakes, unpredictable as it may be, regularly going to something towards the top of the betting over the last several renewals. Only two winners at double-figure odds in the last 15 renewals is an unusual statistic considering the fact that it’s rare for a horse to have had more than three opportunities to show the punter their worth before the Coventry. Nevertheless, the market has been a fine indicator for the race and this should be taken into regard. In fact, our first trend indicates that we should be wary of big-priced outsiders – despite 77 runners with bigger starting prices than 20/1, and none have won, with only 4 making the frame.

Breeding	Runners	Wins	W%	Places	P%	W/P	W/P%
AUS	1	0	0%	1	100%	1	100%
CAN	1	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
FR	1	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
GB	57	2	4%	7	12%	9	16%
IRE	82	5	6%	7	9%	12	15%
USA	32	3	9%	5	16%	8	25%

USA-bred horses have a very strong record in the race, with 8 making the frame from 32 runners in the last 10 years. A quick glance at the table above reveals that 6 of the last 15 winners were bred in the USA, and, interestingly, 4 of these were trained by Aidan O’Brien. USA-bred aside, British and Irish-bred horses have underperformed in the race (Irish-bred probably more so).

Stall	Runners	Wins	W%	Places	P%	W/P	W/P%
1-5	47	3	6%	1	2%	4	9%
6-10	48	2	4%	9	19%	11	23%
11-15	46	2	4%	6	13%	8	17%
16-20	25	3	12%	2	8%	5	20%
21-23	7	0	0%	2	29%	2	29%

As usual, our analysis of starting stalls stretches back to 2004 but excludes 2005 when the race was run at York. It’s easier in a race with a big field such as this one to group together data. However, the full table of stall analysis can be viewed at the end.[i] 

Of course, it’s not possible to judge a horse’s draw solely based on past renewals of the race – it helps to be with the pace. Despite providing three of the last 10 winners, it’s stalls 1-5 which seem to be the worst with horses running from these stalls having taken up just 13% of the places in the last 10 years despite having made up 27% of the runners. If we dig a little deeper, stall 4 seems to be the exception with a record of 2 wins and a place from 8 runners. This means that the bottom three stalls have a record of 30-1-0 in the last 10 years and should be avoided at all costs, even if the bottom stall did provide last year’s winner.

An extremely long-standing trend is that you need to have won last time out to win the Coventry. The vast majority of horses have, but each year there are contenders who haven’t and most won’t hesitate to eliminate these immediately. Taking only into account runs in the UK and Ireland in the following statistics, 72% of runners in the last 10 years had won on their previous start and these made up all of the winners and 90% of the total places (27 of the 30 horses to make the frame won last time out).

The win trend stretches back a number of years – Harbour Master in 1997 was the last horse to win the Coventry without having won last time out, and that in itself was a shock with the trend having been ongoing for a number of years before that.

7 of the last 10 winners had won over 6f, while exceptions Henrythenavigator and War Command had won over 7f. This makes 2008 winner Art Connoisseur the only winner in the last 10 years without a previous success over 6f or further. This makes sense – a large field means that the Coventry can be run at a ferocious pace and a winner will need to run well to the line.

Furthermore, all of the last 10 winners ran in a class 4 or higher last time out – 55 ran in a class 5 or 6 and all 55 came up short.

Trainer	Runners	Wins	W%	Places	P%	W/P	W/P%
Richard Hannon	19	2	11%	2	11%	4	21%
Aidan O'Brien	17	3	18%	2	12%	5	29%
Mick Channon	12	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
Mark Johnston	8	0	0%	1	13%	1	13%
Brian Meehan	7	0	0%	2	29%	2	29%
Jamie Osborne	6	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
Barry Hills	5	1	20%	0	0%	1	20%
Kevin Ryan	5	0	0%	1	20%	1	20%
Jeremy Noseda	5	0	0%	1	20%	1	20%

Looking at trainers, a few have done well in the race while others have performed notably badly – Mick Channon has seen none of his 12 runners in the last 10 years make the frame, while Jamie Osborne has had the same results from his 6 runners. Mark Johnston has had just one place from 8 runners. Predictably, Richard Hannon and Aidan O’Brien have had plenty of runners – Hannon has had 19, including 2 wins and 2 places and O’Brien has saddled 17, including 3 wins and 2 places. Other notable records are those of John Quinn (won from his sole runner in 10 years), Michael Bell (same record) and Jim Bolger (one win and one place from 3 runners).

Jockey	Runners	Wins	W%	Places	P%	W/P	W/P%
Richard Hughes	9	2	22%	1	11%	3	33%
Ryan Moore	9	1	11%	1	11%	2	22%
Frankie Dettori	8	1	13%	1	13%	2	25%
Jamie Spencer	7	1	14%	2	29%	3	43%
Paul Hanagan	6	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
Johnny Murtagh	6	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
Shane Kelly	5	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
Michael Hills	5	1	20%	0	0%	1	20%

As for jockeys, Hughes (9 runners, 2 wins, 1 place), Moore (9 runners, 1 win, 1 place) and Dettori (8 runners, 1 win, 1 place) have had the most rides in the last 10 years. Jamie Spencer’s 7 runners, 1 winner and 2 places is decent, but Paul Hanagan and Shane Kelly have gained no wins or places from their 6 and 5 races respectively. Kevin Manning has notably won once and placed once from 3 rides in the race, while Ted Durcan has done the same from four rides.

Taking a quick look at stallions, Speighstown, Henrythenavigator and Cadeaux Genereux have each had two runners in the race in the last 10 years and each of these has picked up a place.

Summary

•          We should be wary of horses with longer odds than 20/1
•          USA-bred horses have a strong record
•          We should be wary of the bottom three stalls
•          A win last time out is key
•          A win over 6f or further is beneficial
•          Should have run in a class 4 or higher last time out
•          John Quinn, Michael Bell, Jim Bolger have notable records, Mick Channon, Jamie Osborne and Mark Johnston have less desirable records
•          Richard Hughes, Jamie Spencer, Kevin Manning and Ted Durcan worth noting, Paul Hanagan and Shane Kelly unsuccessful in the past

If you're opening an account with a bookies this week, I'd recommend Bet365 so that you can take advantage of their fantastic odds and massive range of offers and guarantees - If you don't already have an account, open one here to avail of their special offers and free bets throughout Royal Ascot!

---

[i]

Stall	Runners	Wins	W%	Places	P%	W/P	W/P%
1	10	1	10%	0	0%	1	10%
2	10	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
3	10	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
4	8	2	25%	1	13%	3	38%
5	9	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
6	10	1	10%	2	20%	3	30%
7	9	0	0%	3	33%	3	33%
8	9	1	11%	0	0%	1	11%
9	10	0	0%	1	10%	1	10%
10	10	0	0%	3	30%	3	30%
11	10	0	0%	2	20%	2	20%
12	10	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
13	10	1	10%	3	30%	4	40%
14	10	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
15	6	1	17%	1	17%	2	33%
16	7	1	14%	1	14%	2	29%
17	5	1	20%	0	0%	1	20%
18	5	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
19	4	1	25%	0	0%	1	25%
20	4	0	0%	1	25%	1	25%
21	3	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
22	2	0	0%	1	50%	1	50%
23	2	0	0%	1	50%	1	50%