Queen Anne Stakes Trends Guide

Year	Winner	Odds	Trainer	Jockey		Stall
2014	Toronado (IRE)	4/5	Richard Hannon Jr	Richard Hughes		8
2013	Declaration Of War (USA)	15/2	Aidan O'Brien	Joseph O'Brien		6
2012	Frankel	1/10	Henry Cecil	Tom Queally		8
2011	Canford Cliffs (IRE)	11/8	Richard Hannon	Richard Hughes		6
2010	Goldikova (IRE)	11/8	Freddy Head	Olivier Peslier		10
2009	Paco Boy (IRE)	100/30	Richard Hannon	Richard Hughes		7
2008	Haradasun (AUS)	5/1	Aidan O'Brien	Johnny Murtagh		2
2007	Ramonti (FR)	5/1	Saeed Bin Suroor	Frankie Dettori		7
2006	Ad Valorem (USA)	13/2	Aidan O'Brien	Kieran Fallon		8
2005	Valixir (IRE)	4/1	Andre Fabre	Cristoph Soumillon		1
2004	Refuse To Bend (IRE)	12/1	Saeed Bin Suroor	Frankie Dettori		17
2003	Dubai Destination (USA)	9/2	Saeed Bin Suroor	Frankie Dettori		2
2002	No Excuse Needed	13/2	Sir Michael Stoute	Johnny Murtagh		2
2001	Medicean	11/2	Sir Michael Stoute	Kieran Fallon		3
2002	Kalanisi (IRE)	11/2	Sir Michael Stoute	Kieran Fallon		1

This one has been won by some serious horses in the past, as have many of the top races at the Royal Meeting, and is always a fantastic way to get the week started. A quick glance through the odds above show that real shocks in the race are few and far between, with Refuse To Bend winning at 12/1 the biggest price to land the contest in the last 15 years, and 3 of the last 5 winners having been favourites.

Age	Runs	Wins	W%	Places	P%	Win/Place	W/P%
4	47	7	15%	9	19%	16	34%
5	29	3	10%	5	17%	8	28%
6	11	0	0%	3	27%	3	27%
7	5	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
8	4	0	0%	1	25%	1	25%

Firstly, the age – there’s a long-running trend of 4 and 5-year-olds winning this race which stretches back as far as 1976 and looks unlikely to be broken. 5 older horses have finished 2^nd this century but they all seem to come up short when it comes to it – Goldikova and Rakti are among the notable contenders to have come up short in the past. Since Radetzky won in 1976, we’ve had 39 consecutive winner aged 4 or 5 despite older horses running each year – a solid trend.

Stall	Runners	Wins	W%	Places	P%	W/P	W/P%
1	10	0	0%	3	30%	3	30%
2	10	1	10%	0	0%	1	10%
3	9	0	0%	2	22%	2	22%
4	10	0	0%	1	10%	1	10%
5	9	0	0%	3	33%	3	33%
6	10	2	20%	2	20%	4	40%
7	10	2	20%	3	30%	5	50%
8	9	3	33%	1	11%	4	44%
9	7	0	0%	2	29%	2	29%
10	6	1	17%	0	0%	1	17%
11	4	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
12	2	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
13	2	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
14	1	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
15	1	0	0%	1	100%	1	100%
16	1	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
17	1	1	100%	0	0%	1	100%

Next, where is the horse running from? Firstly, we should note that the 20015 running was held at York and so these 10-year stats concern the renewals between 2004 and 2014, excluding 2005. 7 of the last 10 winners ran from stalls 6-8, as did 5 of the last 6 and all of the last 4. The bottom 4 stalls seem relatively unsuccessful (combined record of 39-1-5). Stalls 9+ are similarly unsuccessful with a combined record of 25-2-3. In the last 10 years, the best stalls (5-8) have a combined record of 38-7-9.

On recent form, there are some key trends (courtesy of the forum over at racecaller.com) which can be utilised – 9 of the last 10 winners had won over 1m – 1m 1f, including all of the last 8. The exception, Ad Valorem back in 2006, finished 2^nd in the previous year’s St James’s Palace Stakes.

10 of the last 10 winners had run 7-17 times in their careers, while 9 of the last 10 had won a Group 1 race in the past. The exception of the latter trend was 2013 winner Declaration Of War, a group 3 winners as a 3yo who had come up short in Group 1 company in the Lockinge and who went on to win the Group 1 Juddmonte.

8 of the last 10 winners had run once or twice already that season – one exception had run three times, while the other, Toronado, was having his first start in almost a year. 9 of the last 10  winners had run in the last 40 days – again, last year’s winner Toronado broke that trend with a fantastic display.

Trainer	Runners	Wins	W%	Places	P%	W/P	W/P%
Aidan O'Brien	11	3	27%	2	18%	5	45%
Richard Hannon	7	2	29%	1	14%	3	43%
Saeed Bin Suroor	6	1	17%	0	0%	1	17%
Freddy Head	5	1	20%	2	40%	3	60%
Andrew Balding	5	0	0%	2	40%	2	40%
Sir Michael Stoute	5	0	0%	1	20%	1	20%

Looking at trainers, Aidan O’Brien has had 11 runners in the last 10 years, 3 of which won and another 2 of which made the frame. Richard Hannon holds a similarly strong record – 2 wins and a place from 7 runners in the last 10 years. Saeed Bin Suroor has saddled 6 horses in the last decade which have yielded one winner. Sir Michael Stoute, Andrew Balding and Freddy Head have each run 5 horses in the last 10 years – Stoute picked up one place, Balding two places and Head managed an impressive win and two places from his five runners. The French have a decent record in the race – Andre Fabre has only run one horse in it in the last 10 years, but this was 2005 winner Valixir.

Jockey	Runners	Wins	W%	Places	P%	W/P	W/P%
Ryan Moore	9	0	0%	1	11%	1	11%
Richard Hughes	7	3	43%	1	14%	4	57%
Jamie Spencer	7	0	0%	1	14%	1	14%
Frankie Dettori	6	1	17%	0	0%	1	17%
Olivier Peslier	5	1	20%	3	60%	4	80%

As for jockeys, Ryan Moore has drawn a blank in the race in the last 10 years with only one place from 9 runners. In contrast, Richard Hughes has won it 3 times and gained a further place from 7 runners in that space of time. Frankie Dettori has had 6 rides in the last 10 years and won once in 2007 on Ramonti. The truly outstanding record is that of Olivier Peslier – a win and three places from 5 rides in 10 years. Others with strong place records are Tom Queally (a win and a place from 2 rides) and Joseph O’Brien (3 places from 3 rides) while Cristoph Soumillon’s win and a place from 3 rides is notable.

Finally, stallions – Desert Style has had 2 runners in the race in the last 2 years including one winner and one place, Polish Precedent has had 2 places from 2 runners, and Anabaa’s 5 runners have produces a win and 2 places.

Summary

•          Relatively short prices
•          Aged 4 or 5 is key
•          Stalls 5-8
•          Won over 1m – 1m 1f
•          7-17 career starts
•          Won a Group 1
•          One or two runs already this season, with a run in the last 40 days
•          Aidan O’Brien, Richard Hannon and French trainers such as Freddy Head and Andre Fabre are worth looking out for
•          Richard Hughes, Olivier Peslier are good jockeys to be on with Tom Queally, Joseph O’Brien and Cristoph Soumillon worth noting

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