Year
|
Winner
|
Odds
|
Trainer
|
Age
|
Jockey
|
Stall
|
2014
|
Sole Power
|
5/1
|
Edward Lynam
|
7
|
Richard Hughes
|
8
|
2013
|
Sole
Power
|
8/1
|
Edward
Lynam
|
6
|
Johnny
Murtagh
|
14
|
2012
|
Little Bridge (NZ)
|
12/1
|
C S Shum
|
6
|
Zac Purton
|
7
|
2011
|
Prohibit
|
7/1
|
Robert
Cowell
|
6
|
Jim
Crowley
|
14
|
2010
|
Equiano (FR)
|
9/2
|
Barry Hills
|
5
|
Michael Hills
|
11
|
2009
|
Scenic
Blast (AUS)
|
11/4
|
Daniel
Morton
|
5
|
Steven
Arnold
|
1
|
2008
|
Equiano (FR)
|
22/1
|
M Delcher Sanchez
|
3
|
Olivier Peslier
|
11
|
2007
|
Miss
Andretti (AUS)
|
3/1
|
Lee
Freedman
|
6
|
Craig
Newitt
|
3
|
2006
|
Takeover Target (AUS)
|
7/1
|
Joe Janiak
|
7
|
Jay Ford
|
12
|
2005
|
Chineur
(FR)
|
7/1
|
Mikel
Delzangles
|
4
|
Christophe
Lemaire
|
8
|
2004
|
The Tatling (IRE)
|
8/1
|
Milton Bradley
|
7
|
Darryll Holland
|
15
|
2003
|
Choisir
(AUS)
|
25/1
|
Paul
Perry
|
4
|
Johnny
Murtagh
|
14
|
2002
|
Dominica
|
16/1
|
M P Tregoning
|
3
|
Martin Dwyer
|
10
|
2001
|
Cassandra
Go (IRE)
|
8/1
|
G
Wragg
|
5
|
Michael
Roberts
|
18
|
2000
|
Nuclear Debate (USA)
|
16/1
|
J E Hammond
|
5
|
Gerald Mosse
|
2
|
1999
|
Mitcham
(IRE)
|
20/1
|
T G
Mills
|
3
|
Richard
Quinn
|
16
|
The third race of the day can often throw up a few
surprises, with no winning favourites since 2009. Plenty of foreign raiders
come to Ascot and take this race and these can often be underestimated, so it
pays to look at form from France and other racing nations before discounting
such runners based on our own lack of knowledge. The past two runnings have
gone to a relatively local winner, however, with Sole Power emerging victorious
both times. Heart-warming as a hat trick may be, we must begin by looking at
how age will affect our runners, and it’s not good news for Sole Power…
Age
|
Runners
|
Wins
|
W%
|
Places
|
P%
|
W/P
|
W/P%
|
3
|
32
|
1
|
3%
|
3
|
9%
|
4
|
13%
|
4
|
43
|
1
|
2%
|
6
|
14%
|
7
|
16%
|
5
|
33
|
2
|
6%
|
5
|
15%
|
7
|
21%
|
6
|
33
|
4
|
12%
|
3
|
9%
|
7
|
21%
|
7
|
23
|
2
|
9%
|
1
|
4%
|
3
|
13%
|
8
|
11
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
9%
|
1
|
9%
|
9
|
4
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
25%
|
1
|
25%
|
10
|
1
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
Despite a large representation in the race over the past
decade, 3 and 4yos have been fairly unsuccessful compared to their elders in
this contest – all of the last 6 runnings have gone to horses aged 5 or older,
as have 8 of the last 10. Indeed, this trend remained strong last year when the
beaten favourite was a 3yo, as was also the case back in 2008. Horses aged 8
and older have also drawn a blank in the last 10 years, and although we would
consider disregarding this due to the fact that they did pick up two places
from just 15 runners, their winning drought actually stretches back over more
than 40 years and so we must be wary of them. 7yo success has been rare but 2
have won in the last decade and although they underperform a bit, we won’t
count them out completely. 5 and 6yos have provided the majority of the
victories in recent years and they, along with the 7yos, are the horses we
should focus on.
Stall
|
Runs
|
Wins
|
W%
|
Places
|
P%
|
W/P
|
W/P%
|
1-5
|
49
|
2
|
4%
|
5
|
10%
|
7
|
14%
|
6-10
|
48
|
2
|
4%
|
4
|
8%
|
6
|
13%
|
11-15
|
46
|
6
|
13%
|
5
|
11%
|
11
|
24%
|
16-20
|
28
|
0
|
0%
|
3
|
11%
|
3
|
11%
|
21-25
|
9
|
0
|
0%
|
3
|
33%
|
3
|
33%
|
26+
|
3
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
Now, the draw. As usual, we include data from 2004-2014,
excluding 2005 when the race was run at York. Due to the big field, it’s
helpful to group the data together but the full list can be viewed at the end[i].
Stalls 11-15 obviously stand out looking at the table, with 6 of the last 10
winners having run from these stalls. Possibly more importantly, horses running
from stalls 11-15 have taken up 25% of the total field in the last 10 years and
filled 37% of the places, a big margin. A for the others, no horse has won from
a draw higher than 15 yet we probably shouldn’t write them off as their place
records aren’t far below average.
As for form, 9 of the last 10 winners had already run 2-4 times that
season, 9 of the last 10 winners finished in the top 2 last time out and 9 of
the last 10 winners had won over 5f. 8 of the last 10 winners had previously
won over 6f, and both exceptions were Sole Power.
Trainer
|
Runners
|
Wins
|
W%
|
Places
|
P%
|
W/P
|
W/P%
|
Kevin
Ryan
|
8
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
13%
|
1
|
13%
|
Bryan
Smart
|
8
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
Robert
Cowell
|
7
|
1
|
14%
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
14%
|
David
Nicholls
|
7
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
William
Haggas
|
6
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
Henry
Candy
|
5
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
20%
|
1
|
20%
|
William
Muir
|
5
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
20%
|
1
|
20%
|
Richard
Hannon
|
5
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
20%
|
1
|
20%
|
Looking at trainers, none have dominated the race as such –
Edward Lynam has run Sole Power for the last four years in a row, finishing 8th,
3rd, 1st and 1st. None of the trainers with 5
or more runners in the race in the last 10 years have picked up more than one
win or place. 4 of the last 10 renewals were won by a trainer’s sole
representative in the 10-year period we look at. Barry Hills has picked up a win
and a place from his 4 runners in 10 years, Jeremy Noseda has picked up 2
places from 3 runners while Joe Janiak has picked up a win and a place from 3
runners.
Jockey
|
Runners
|
Wins
|
W%
|
Places
|
P%
|
W/P
|
W/P%
|
Frankie
Dettori
|
7
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
14%
|
1
|
14%
|
Ryan
Moore
|
6
|
0
|
0%
|
2
|
33%
|
2
|
33%
|
Jamie
Spencer
|
6
|
0
|
0%
|
4
|
67%
|
4
|
67%
|
Johnny
Murtagh
|
6
|
1
|
17%
|
1
|
17%
|
2
|
33%
|
Richard
Hughes
|
6
|
1
|
17%
|
1
|
17%
|
2
|
33%
|
Tom
Eaves
|
5
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
Neil
Callan
|
5
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
20%
|
1
|
20%
|
Martin
Dwyer
|
5
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
20%
|
1
|
20%
|
As for jockeys, none of them have
really managed to dominate either, though Jamie Spencer’s 4 places from 6 rides
is impressive. Zac Purton and Christophe Lemaire both won on with their sole
rides in the race, while Arnold Steven has one win and one place from his 2
rides. Jay Ford has picked up a win and a place from 3 rides and Michael Hills
has achieved the same from 4.
Taking a quick look at stallions,
Fasliyev, Faltaat, Ihtiram and Scenic have each won from their one runner,
Acclamation has picked up 2 wins and a place from 7 runners and Kyllachy has
picked up 2 wins and 2 places from 8 runners. Celtic Swing has managed a win
and a place from 5 runners and the progeny of Compton Place have 3 places from
8 runners.
Summary
- 5 and 6yos have been most successful, with the 7yos doing well too
- Stalls 11-15 stand out
- 2-4 runs this season is a plus
- A win last time out is also a plus
- Winning form over 5f and 6f both beneficial
- No outstanding trainer records – Barry Hill, Jeremy Noseda and Joe Janiak worth keeping an eye out for
- Jamie Spencer has an impressive record, as do Arnold Stevens and Jay Ford (and Michael Hills)
- Progeny of Acclamation and Kyllachy might be worth looking out for
[i]
Stall
|
Runs
|
Wins
|
W%
|
Places
|
P%
|
W/P
|
W/P%
|
1
|
10
|
1
|
10%
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
10%
|
2
|
10
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
3
|
10
|
1
|
10%
|
1
|
10%
|
2
|
20%
|
4
|
10
|
0
|
0%
|
2
|
20%
|
2
|
20%
|
5
|
9
|
0
|
0%
|
2
|
22%
|
2
|
22%
|
6
|
10
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
7
|
10
|
1
|
10%
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
10%
|
8
|
10
|
1
|
10%
|
1
|
10%
|
2
|
20%
|
9
|
8
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
13%
|
1
|
13%
|
10
|
10
|
0
|
0%
|
2
|
20%
|
2
|
20%
|
11
|
10
|
2
|
20%
|
1
|
10%
|
3
|
30%
|
12
|
10
|
1
|
10%
|
1
|
10%
|
2
|
20%
|
13
|
9
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
11%
|
1
|
11%
|
14
|
8
|
2
|
25%
|
1
|
13%
|
3
|
38%
|
15
|
9
|
1
|
11%
|
1
|
11%
|
2
|
22%
|
16
|
7
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
17
|
7
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
14%
|
1
|
14%
|
18
|
5
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
20%
|
1
|
20%
|
19
|
6
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
17%
|
1
|
17%
|
20
|
3
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
21
|
3
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
33%
|
1
|
33%
|
22
|
2
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
50%
|
1
|
50%
|
23
|
2
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
24
|
1
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
100%
|
1
|
100%
|
25
|
1
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
26
|
1
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
27
|
1
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
28
|
1
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
No comments:
Post a Comment