Year
|
Winner
|
Odds
|
Trainer
|
Jockey
|
Stall
|
2014
|
Anthem Alexander (IRE)
|
9/4
|
Edward Lynam
|
Pat Smullen
|
12
|
2013
|
Rizeena
(IRE)
|
6/1
|
Clive
Brittain
|
James
Doyle
|
16
|
2012
|
Ceiling Kitty
|
20/1
|
Tom Dascombe
|
Richard Kingscote
|
5
|
2011
|
Best
Terms
|
12/1
|
Richard
Hannon
|
Richard
Hughes
|
7
|
2010
|
Maqaasid
|
9/4
|
John Gosden
|
Richard Hills
|
1
|
2009
|
Jealous
Again (USA)
|
13/2
|
Wesley
Ward
|
John
Velazquez
|
13
|
2008
|
Langs Lash (IRE)
|
25/1
|
Mick Quinlan
|
Alan Munro
|
12
|
2007
|
Elletelle
(IRE)
|
20/1
|
Ger
Lyons
|
Johnny
Murtagh
|
9
|
2006
|
Gilded (IRE)
|
11/2
|
Richard Hannon
|
Richard Hughes
|
4
|
2005
|
Flashy
Wings
|
4/1
|
Mick
Channon
|
Ted
Durcan
|
14
|
2004
|
Damson (IRE)
|
11/2
|
David Wachman
|
Jamie Spencer
|
3
|
2003
|
Attraction
|
13/8
|
Mark
Johnston
|
Kevin
Darley
|
9
|
2002
|
Romantic Liason
|
16/1
|
Brian Meehan
|
Pat Eddery
|
11
|
2001
|
Queens
Logic (IRE)
|
13/2
|
Mick
Channon
|
Steve
Drowne
|
17
|
2000
|
Romantic Myth
|
4/1
|
Tim Easterby
|
Kevin Darley
|
1
|
1999
|
Shining
Hour (USA)
|
20/1
|
Peter
Chapple-Hyam
|
Jimmy
Fortune
|
11
|
This isn’t really one for the punters – two 20/1 shots and a
25/1 outsider have won this in recent years, ensuring that it’s an extremely
tough race for expert or punter to analyse. Furthermore, it’s one of the races
of the Royal Meeting which is almost impossible to decipher from a trends
perspective. Unlike most of the other group races, it’s notoriously difficult
to unearth any hidden or obvious trends running through the past results of
this race. Nevertheless, we’ll give it our best shot!
Breeding
|
Runners
|
Wins
|
W%
|
Places
|
P%
|
W/P
|
W/P%
|
GB
|
77
|
4
|
5%
|
11
|
14%
|
15
|
19%
|
IRE
|
89
|
5
|
6%
|
7
|
8%
|
12
|
13%
|
USA
|
20
|
1
|
5%
|
2
|
10%
|
3
|
15%
|
The race is only open to 2yos so instead of age we begin by
looking at breeding. 5 of the last 10 have been won by Irish-bred horses but
it’s the British-bred who have had the upper hand overall with 4 wins and a
further 11 places from 77 runners. This
is 50% of the total places from just 41% of the total field. From
2010-2012, 7 of the 9 horses which made the frame were British-bred, as were
the 3 winners. However, in the last two years, 5 of the 6 horses to make the
frame were Irish-bred, including the two winners and the first three home last
year. We have to wonder whether the strong trend of British success a few years
ago is now shifting in favour of the Irish.
Stall
|
Runners
|
Wins
|
W%
|
Places
|
P%
|
W/P
|
W/P%
|
1-5
|
50
|
4
|
8%
|
10
|
20%
|
14
|
28%
|
6-10
|
50
|
2
|
4%
|
3
|
6%
|
5
|
10%
|
11-15
|
47
|
3
|
6%
|
1
|
2%
|
4
|
9%
|
16-20
|
26
|
1
|
4%
|
5
|
19%
|
6
|
23%
|
21-+
|
13
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
8%
|
1
|
8%
|
Secondly, the draw. As usual, we don’t include 2005 as the
race was run at York and so the effect of the draw would have been different,
but instead include the 2004 renewal to keep our trends on a 10-year basis.
Also, due to the big field, we group the data together in groups of 5, but the
full list is at the bottom.[i]
The first thing which stands out is the fantastic performance of horses running
from the bottom 5 stalls, which have produced 47% of the horses to make the
frame from just 27% of the total field. If we narrow this down to the bottom 4,
the statistics get even better – 3 wins, 10 places from 40 runners means 43% of
the total places from 22% of the runners.
One interesting trend concerns finishing position last time
out – 12 of the last 13 winners had won last time out so it seems a real
positive. However, what may be more relevant is the extremely poor record of
horses which failed to finish within a length of the winner on their last start
– a creditable run last time out seems vital.
Trainer
|
Runners
|
Wins
|
W%
|
Places
|
P%
|
W/P
|
W/P%
|
Richard
Hannon
|
18
|
2
|
11%
|
1
|
6%
|
3
|
17%
|
Kevin
Ryan
|
8
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
Mick
Channon
|
7
|
1
|
14%
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
14%
|
Clive
Brittain
|
6
|
1
|
17%
|
1
|
17%
|
2
|
33%
|
Tom
Dascombe
|
5
|
1
|
20%
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
20%
|
When it comes to trainers, the English have certainly had an
advantage in recent years – 20 of the last 23 renewals have gone to trainers
based in England. As for individual trainers,
none have dominated – the Hannon yard is the only one to have won this twice in
the last 10 years with 2 wins and 2 places from 20 runners. Edward Lynam, Ger
Lyons and the late Mick Quinlan all won with their sole runner in the last 10
years while John Gosden won in 2010 and has had only 2 runners in the last
decade. Clive Brittain picked up a win and a place from 2 runners while Wesley
Ward achieved the same from 4. Jeremy Noseda managed 2 places from 4 runners.
Kevin Ryan has drawn a blank from his 8 runners.
Jockey
|
Runners
|
Wins
|
W%
|
Places
|
P%
|
W/P
|
W/P%
|
Richard
Hughes
|
10
|
2
|
20%
|
1
|
10%
|
3
|
30%
|
Ryan
Moore
|
9
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
11%
|
1
|
11%
|
Frankie
Dettori
|
8
|
0
|
0%
|
2
|
25%
|
2
|
25%
|
Jamie
Spencer
|
7
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
14%
|
1
|
14%
|
Jimmy
Fortune
|
7
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
Johnny
Murtagh
|
5
|
1
|
20%
|
1
|
20%
|
2
|
40%
|
Silvestre
De Sousa
|
5
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
N
Callan
|
5
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
20%
|
1
|
20%
|
Kieran
Fallon
|
5
|
0
|
0%
|
2
|
40%
|
2
|
40%
|
Moving on to jockeys, Richard Hughes has won twice and
placed once from 10 rides in the race. Alan Munro, James Doyle and John
Velasquez won from their sole ride in the last 10 years. Tom Eaves and Seb
Sanders have each picked up 2 places from 3 rides in the last 10 years while
Kieran Fallon managed 2 places from 5 rides. On the other end of the scale,
Jimmy Fortune and Silvestre Do Sousa have come away empty-handed despite a
combined 12 rides in the race (7 for Fortune and 5 for De Sousa) while Ryan
Moore has picked up just one place from 9 rides.
Breeding plays a big part in the analysis of 2yo races and
so it pays to take a quick look at stallions from a trend perspective. However,
no 2 winners from the last 10 years were bred by the same stallion. Starspangledbanner,
Red Clubs, Zafonic and Trippi have each won from their sole representative in
the race while the progeny of Bertolini have placed twice from 3 runners.
Summary
- British-bred had a very strong record but Irish-bred have improved in the last few years
- Very strong record from horses running from bottom 4/5 stalls
- Creditable run last time out (preferably a win)
- No trainers have dominated but the English have had the upper hand
- Richard Hughes, Rom Eaves, Seb Sanders, Kieran Fallon have done well – Jimmy Fortune, Silvestre De Sousa, Ryan Moore haven’t
- Progeny of Bertolini may be worth noting
[i]
Stall
|
Runners
|
Wins
|
W%
|
Places
|
P%
|
W/P
|
W/P%
|
1
|
10
|
1
|
10%
|
2
|
20%
|
3
|
30%
|
2
|
10
|
0
|
0%
|
3
|
30%
|
3
|
30%
|
3
|
10
|
1
|
10%
|
3
|
30%
|
4
|
40%
|
4
|
10
|
1
|
10%
|
2
|
20%
|
3
|
30%
|
5
|
10
|
1
|
10%
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
10%
|
6
|
10
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
10%
|
1
|
10%
|
7
|
10
|
1
|
10%
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
10%
|
8
|
10
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
10%
|
1
|
10%
|
9
|
10
|
1
|
10%
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
10%
|
10
|
10
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
10%
|
1
|
10%
|
11
|
10
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
10%
|
1
|
10%
|
12
|
10
|
2
|
20%
|
0
|
0%
|
2
|
20%
|
13
|
10
|
1
|
10%
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
10%
|
14
|
9
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
15
|
8
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
16
|
6
|
1
|
17%
|
1
|
17%
|
2
|
33%
|
17
|
7
|
0
|
0%
|
2
|
29%
|
2
|
29%
|
18
|
5
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
20%
|
1
|
20%
|
19
|
4
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
20
|
4
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
25%
|
1
|
25%
|
21
|
4
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
22
|
3
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
33%
|
1
|
33%
|
23
|
1
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
24
|
2
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
25
|
1
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
26
|
1
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
27
|
1
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
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