St James's Palace Stakes Trends Guide

Year		Winner	Odds	Trainer	Jockey	Stall
2014		Kingman	8/11	John Gosden	James Doyle	7
2013		Dawn Approach (IRE)	5/4	Jim Bolger	Kevin Manning	5
2012		Most Improved (IRE)	9/1	Brian Meehan	Kieran Fallon	15
2011		Frankel	30/100	Henry Cecil	Tom Queally	5
2010		Canford Cliffs (IRE)	11/4	Richard Hannon	Richard Hughes	4
2009		Mastercraftsman (IRE)	5/6	Aidan O’Brien	Johnny Murtagh	3
2008		Henrythenavigator (USA)	4/7	Aidan O’Brien	Johnny Murtagh	4
2007		Excellent Art	8/1	Aidan O’Brien	Jamie Spencer	8
2006		Araafa (IRE)	2/1	Jeremy Noseda	Alan Munro	10
2005		Shamardal (USA)	7/4	Saeed Bin Suroor	Kerrin McEvoy	2
2004		Azamour (IRE)	9/2	John Oxx	Michael Kinane	11
2003		Zafeen (FR)	8/1	Mick Channon	Darryll Holland	7
2002		Rock Of Gibraltar (IRE)	4/5	Aidan O’Brien	Michael Kinane	6
2001		Black Minnaloushe (USA)	8/1	Aidan O’Brien	Johnny Murtagh	11
2000		Giants Causeway (USA)	7/2	Aidan O’Brien	Michael Kinane	9
1999		Sendawar (IRE)	2/1	Alain De Royer-Dupre	Gerald Mosse	1

Another race for the punters on day one – 2012 winner Most Improved was the biggest shock in the race for over 15 years, with a couple of 8/1 shots in that space of time the only other surprises. This one’s often about correctly estimating the strength of the form coming from the Newmarket, Irish and French 2000 Guineas, with the Guineas runners often dominating the race – only one of the last 10 winners didn’t run in one of these races, and generally a decent run in one of those races is needed going into this.

Breeding	Runners	Wins	W%	Places	P%	W/P	W/P%
FR	3	0	0%	1	33%	1	33%
GB	28	3	11%	3	11%	6	21%
IRE	41	5	12%	11	27%	16	39%
JPN	1	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
USA	22	2	9%	4	18%	6	27%

We’ll begin by taking a look at the breeding. 5 of the last 10 winners were Irish-bred. Irish-bred horses have filled 55% of the places from 43% of the field and are the only group of horses which have filled a higher percentage of the places than of the field – basically, they seem to be performing well. USA-bred have also performed respectably, British-bred have been more disappointing.

Stall	Runners	Wins	W%	Places	P%	W/P	W/P%
1	10	0	0%	3	30%	3	30%
2	10	0	0%	5	50%	5	50%
3	10	1	10%	2	20%	3	30%
4	10	2	20%	2	20%	4	40%
5	10	2	20%	1	10%	3	30%
6	10	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
7	9	1	11%	0	0%	1	11%
8	9	1	11%	3	33%	4	44%
9	8	0	0%	2	25%	2	25%
10	4	1	25%	0	0%	1	25%
11	3	1	33%	0	0%	1	33%
12	1	0	0%	1	100%	1	100%
13	1	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
14	1	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
15	1	1	100%	0	0%	1	100%
16	1	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%

Now, the stalls. As usual, we include the 2004 renewal in these 10-year stats but exclude 2005 due to the fact that the race was run at York. A quick look at the table shows that the bottom 5 stalls have an outstanding record, providing 5 of the last 10 winners and 18 of the 29 places in this time. They provided less than half the runners and more than 62% of the places. Other than this, there are no particular trends so we won’t necessarily exclude any horses based on their draw but will keep an eye out for those drawn in stalls 1-5.

The trends based on the horse’s careers to date just indicate that we need a top-class horse, which they will more than likely be if they’ve already done well in a Guineas –9 of the last 10 winners had won a group 1 or 2 race, while 7 of the last 10 had won a group 1 or 2 as a 2yo. A recent run seems helpful with 9 of the last 10 winners having run in the last 30 days.

Last year’s winner had won the Irish Guineas at the Curragh, and the winner of the Irish Guineas has run 9 times in the last 10 years – 5 of these won the St James’s Palace. The winner of the Newmarket Guineas has run 7 times and won 3 times. The key statistic may be that 8 of the last 10 winners had finished in the top 2 in either the English, Irish or French 2000 Guineas – one exception finished 4^th in the French 2000 Guineas and the other skipped the Guineas and ran in the French Derby. 7 of the last 10 winners had won last time out.

Trainer	Runners	Wins	W%	Places	P%	W/P	W/P%
Aidan O'Brien	23	3	13%	7	30%	10	43%
Richard Hannon	6	1	17%	2	33%	3	50%
John Gosden	5	1	20%	2	40%	3	60%
Brian Meehan	5	1	20%	1	20%	2	40%

Aidan O’Brien has had a large amount of runners in the last 10 years but no other trainer has. 10 of O’Brien’s 23 have made the frame and he trained the winner each year from 2000-2002 and from 2007-2009. The others with 5 or  more runners do have notable records, however, in particular Richard Hannon and John Gosden who have each trainer a winner and 2 places from 6 and 5 runners respectively. Jeremy Noseda won this with his sole runner in the last 10 years, while the late Sir Henry Cecil (whose yard is now run by Lady Jane Cecil) won once and placed once from 2 runners.

Jockey	Runners	Wins	W%	Places	P%	W/P	W/P%
Ryan Moore	7	0	0%	4	57%	4	57%
Frankie Dettori	7	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
Richard Hughes	7	1	14%	2	29%	3	43%
Johnny Murtagh	5	2	40%	0	0%	2	40%

Moving on to jockeys, Frankie Dettori has achieved nothing from his 7 rides in the race in the last 10 years, while Ryan Moore has also failed to win from the same amount of rides but did pick up 4 places. Hughes also had 7 rides and picked up a win and 2 places from them. Alan Munro won it from his sole ride in the last 10 years, while Kieran Fallon picked up an impressive win and 2 places from 4 rides in 10 years. Jimmy Fortune managed 3 places from 4 runners.

Taking a quick look at stallions, Lawman, Mull Of Kintyre and New Approach all won with their sole runner in the last 10 years, while Galileo picked up a win and a place from 3 runners, Danzig managed 2 places from 2 runners and the progeny of Danehill placed 3 times from 4 runners.

Summary

•          Irish-bred horses have done well
•          Stalls 1-5 have an outstanding record
•          We need a top-class horse – preferably a group 1 or 2 winner, especially if they won a group 1 or 2 as a 2yo
•          A run in the last 30 days is beneficial
•          Aidan O’Brien had been successful but had a lot of runners – Richard Hannon, John Gosden and the Cecil yard all worth noting
•          Ryan Moore, Richard Hughes, Kieran Fallon, Jimmy Fortune worth noting
•          Progeny of Galileo, Danzig, Danehill have done well

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