An interesting race on 1000 Guineas day in the Curragh is
the Tattersalls Gold Cup which this year features the liked of Al Kazeem,
Postponed and The Grey Gatsby – let’s have a look on what the trends have to
say on the race.
1) Stall
Stall
|
Runners
|
Wins
|
W%
|
Places
|
P%
|
W/P
|
W/P%
|
1
|
8
|
4
|
50%
|
0
|
0%
|
4
|
50%
|
2
|
9
|
1
|
11%
|
3
|
33%
|
4
|
44%
|
3
|
10
|
3
|
30%
|
0
|
0%
|
3
|
30%
|
4
|
9
|
0
|
0%
|
3
|
33%
|
3
|
33%
|
5
|
8
|
2
|
25%
|
1
|
13%
|
3
|
38%
|
6
|
5
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
7
|
3
|
0
|
0%
|
2
|
67%
|
2
|
67%
|
8
|
1
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
9
|
1
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
I
t’s generally a fairly small field and all of stalls 1-5
must be given respect, along with stall 7 – with 6 runners today, the only one
not running from one of the preferred stalls is Postponed in stall 6.
2) Place Last Time Out
Place
LTO
|
Runners
|
Wins
|
W%
|
Places
|
P%
|
W/P
|
W/P%
|
1st
|
16
|
5
|
31%
|
4
|
25%
|
9
|
56%
|
2nd
|
10
|
2
|
20%
|
2
|
20%
|
4
|
40%
|
3rd
|
9
|
1
|
11%
|
1
|
11%
|
2
|
22%
|
4th
|
5
|
2
|
40%
|
1
|
20%
|
3
|
60%
|
5th
|
3
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
6th
|
3
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
33%
|
1
|
33%
|
7th
|
3
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
8th
|
2
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
15th
|
1
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
Ideally we’re looking for a horse which came in the top 2, 4th
or 6th last time out. Again, this covers most of the field – the
whole field, in fact. Highly Toxic and Fascinating Rock both won last time out
while the other four runners, Al Kazeem, Parish Hall, Postponed and The Grey Gatsby,
were all 2nd on their last outings.
10-Year Trends
3) 10 of the last 10 winners had won a group race
Highly Toxic isn’t a
group winner
4) 10 of the last 10 winners had won over 1m 2f+
All of this year’s
field fit this trend
5) 10 of the last 10 winners were officially rated 116+
Fascinating Rock is
officially rated 113, as is Parish Hall, while Highly Toxic has an official
rating of just 96.
6) 8 of the last 10 winners had had 1-3 runs that season
All of this year’s
runners fit this trend.
The Big Table
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
Total
|
|
Al
Kazeem
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
6
|
Fascinating
Rock
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
5
|
Highly
Toxic
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
4
|
Parish
Hall
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
5
|
Postponed
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
5
|
The
Grey Gatsby
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
6
|
It’s extremely tight here and the winners on trends are the
top two in the market – The Grey Gatsby and Al Kazeem. With The Grey Gatsby
still available around the 6/4 mark and Al Kazeem around 3/1, you could choose
to back both but I’ll opt to give this one a miss.
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