One of three group races on 2000 Guineas day at the Curragh,
this year’s Greenlands Stakes features top sprinters such as Mustajeeb, Gordon
Lord Byron and Sole Power – arguably a more intriguing race than the Guineas
itself, or the Temple Stakes over in Haydock. Let’s have a look at what the
trends have to say.
1) Stall
Stall
|
Runners
|
Wins
|
W%
|
Places
|
P%
|
W/P
|
W/P%
|
1
|
10
|
0
|
0%
|
2
|
20%
|
2
|
20%
|
2
|
10
|
2
|
20%
|
1
|
10%
|
3
|
30%
|
3
|
10
|
0
|
0%
|
3
|
30%
|
3
|
30%
|
4
|
9
|
1
|
11%
|
2
|
22%
|
3
|
33%
|
5
|
10
|
0
|
0%
|
2
|
20%
|
2
|
20%
|
6
|
10
|
2
|
20%
|
1
|
10%
|
3
|
30%
|
7
|
7
|
1
|
14%
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
14%
|
8
|
8
|
0
|
0%
|
2
|
25%
|
2
|
25%
|
9
|
7
|
2
|
29%
|
0
|
0%
|
2
|
29%
|
10
|
5
|
0
|
0%
|
2
|
40%
|
2
|
40%
|
11
|
4
|
1
|
25%
|
1
|
25%
|
2
|
50%
|
12
|
2
|
1
|
50%
|
1
|
50%
|
2
|
100%
|
13
|
1
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
14
|
1
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
15
|
1
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
100%
|
1
|
100%
|
16
|
1
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
17
|
1
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
Stalls 2, 3, 4, 6 and 9 have been successful in the last 10
years. Today they’re filled by Astaire, Flight Risk, Majestic Queen, Jamesie
and Maarek respectively.
2) Place Last Time Out
Place
LTO
|
Runners
|
Wins
|
W%
|
Places
|
P%
|
W/P
|
W/P%
|
1st
|
17
|
5
|
29%
|
3
|
18%
|
8
|
47%
|
2nd
|
14
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
7%
|
1
|
7%
|
3rd
|
12
|
1
|
8%
|
1
|
8%
|
2
|
17%
|
4th
|
11
|
1
|
9%
|
4
|
36%
|
5
|
45%
|
5th
|
4
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
25%
|
1
|
25%
|
6th
|
5
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
7th
|
6
|
1
|
17%
|
2
|
33%
|
3
|
50%
|
8th
|
3
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
33%
|
1
|
33%
|
9th
|
9
|
0
|
0%
|
2
|
22%
|
2
|
22%
|
10th
|
5
|
0
|
0%
|
2
|
40%
|
2
|
40%
|
11th
|
5
|
2
|
40%
|
0
|
0%
|
2
|
40%
|
12th
|
1
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
17th
|
1
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
18th
|
1
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
19th
|
1
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
100%
|
1
|
100%
|
28th
|
1
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
We’re going to look out for horses which came 1st
(Sole Power, Majestic Queen), 4th (Maarek), and 7th
(Jamesie) last time out.
10-Year Trends
3) 9 of the last 10 winners had won over 6f.
Sole Power and
Mustajeeb haven’t won over 6f.
4) 9 of the last 10 winners had won a group or listed race.
All of this year’s
runners fit this trend.
5) 8 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or older.
Astaire, Flight Risk
and Mustajeeb are 4yos.
6) 8 of the last 10 winners had run that year.
Mustajeeb’s last start
was in November 2014.
7) 8 of the last 10 winners achieved an RPR of 107+ in their
last 2 starts.
An Saighdiur, Jamesie,
Maarek don’t fit this trend.
8)7 of the last 10 winners had won or placed at the Curragh.
Astaire has never run
at the Curragh, while the others have all either won or placed here.
The Big Table
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
Total
|
|
Sole
Power
|
No
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
6
|
Gordon
Lord Byron
|
No
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
6
|
An
Saighdiur
|
No
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
5
|
Astaire
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
5
|
Flight
Risk
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
6
|
Jamesie
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
7
|
Maarek
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
7
|
Mustajeeb
|
No
|
No
|
No
|
Yes
|
No
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
3
|
Majestic
Queen
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
8
|
It was joint at the top between three outsiders here so we
added in another trend (trend 7 concering RPR’s) to narrow it down to just one –
Majestic Queen. This certainly isn’t the bet I’d be most confident of today and
this could well be a no-bet race, but Majestic Queen wins on the tie-breaker.
SELECTION: MAJESTIC
QUEEN EACH-WAY 14/1
No comments:
Post a Comment