Lockinge Stakes Trends Analysis

The massive field of 18 in this year’s Lockinge Stakes may throw off our analysis a bit – we can’t confidently analyse the value of any stall higher than 10, meaning that almost half the field will not receive points for stall positioning despite the fact that their draw may be of no disadvantage. Nevertheless, we can probably still learn a bit about this year’s field and the trends analysis, albeit not as reliable as usual, should still be an extremely useful tool for your own analysis of the race.

1) Stall

Stall	Runners	Wins	W%	Places	P%	W/P	W/P%
1	8	0	0%	2	25%	2	25%
2	8	0	0%	4	50%	4	50%
3	9	2	22%	2	22%	4	44%
4	9	1	11%	0	0%	1	11%
5	10	2	20%	1	10%	3	30%
6	9	1	11%	2	22%	3	33%
7	10	2	20%	4	40%	6	60%
8	9	0	0%	1	11%	1	11%
9	4	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
10	5	2	40%	1	20%	3	60%
11	4	0	0%	1	25%	1	25%
12	3	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
13	1	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%

So, based on this, we're going to keep an eye on horses drawn in stalls 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 10 and 11. These are, in order, Tullius, Custom Cut, Night Of Thunder, Trade Storm, Hors De Combat, Cable Bay and Top Notch Tonto.

2) Place Last Time Out

Place LTO	Runners	Wins	W%	Places	P%	W/P	W/P%
1st	30	5	17%	6	20%	11	37%
2nd	14	1	7%	3	21%	4	29%
3rd	9	1	11%	3	33%	4	44%
4th	11	2	18%	1	9%	3	27%
5th	6	1	17%	1	17%	2	33%
6th	3	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
7th	2	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
8th	3	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%
9th	3	0	0%	0	0%	0	0%

Anything that finished in the top 5 last time out should be of interest here, so we don't really learn that much about our field. In fact, Master Carpenter, Trade Storm and Integral are the only three of this year’s runners not to have finished in the top 5 last time out.

10-Year Trends

3) 10 of the last 10 winners had won over a mile.

4 of this year’s runners aren’t distance winners – these are Arod, Breton Rock, Cable Bay and Cougar Mountain.

4) 10 of the last 10 winners had an SP of 9/1 or shorter.

Only 4 horses are currently priced at shorter than 9/1 – these are Toormore, Custom Cut, Integral and Night Of Thunder.

5) 8 of the last 10 winners had 8-13 previous career starts.

Cable Bay, Here Comes When, Hors De Combat, Moohaarib, Night Of Thunder, Toormore and Integral fit this trend.

6) 7 of the last 10 winners were having their first run of the season.

Breton Rock, Master Carpenter, Night Of Thunder, Toormore, Yuften and Integral haven’t run yet this season.

7) 7 of the last 10 winners were group 1 winners.

Night Of Thunder, Toormore, Trade Storm and Integral are this year’s group 1 winners. However, it’s worth noting that another 2 of the last 10 winners had finished 2^nd in a group 1 but not won one – of this year’s runners, Aljamaaheer, Cable Bay, Top Notch Tonto and Tullius have all done so, while Yuften was 2^nd past the post in a group 1 in France before being disqualified to 4^th.

The Big Table

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	Total
Aljamaaheer	No	Yes	Yes	No	No	No	*	2
Arod	No	Yes	No	No	No	No	No	1
Breton Rock	No	Yes	No	No	No	Yes	No	2
Cable Bay	Yes	Yes	No	No	Yes	No	*	3
Captain Cat	No	Yes	Yes	No	No	No	No	2
Cougar Mountain	No	Yes	No	No	No	No	No	1
Custom Cut	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	No	No	4
Here Comes When	No	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	No	No	3
Hors De Combat	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	No	No	4
Master Carpenter	No	No	Yes	No	No	Yes	No	2
Moohaarib	No	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	No	No	3
Night Of Thunder	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	7
Toormore	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	6
Top Notch Tonto	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	No	No	*	3
Trade Storm	Yes	No	Yes	No	No	No	Yes	3
Tullius	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	No	No	*	3
Yuften	No	Yes	Yes	No	No	Yes	*	3
Integral	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	5

*For the 7th trend, horses which have come 2nd in a group 1 but not won one (including Yuften) are marked with an asterisk. 

In theory we have a clear winner in the form of Night Of Thunder. In reality, I wouldn’t be overly comfortable backing him based on this – Toormore misses out for the sole reason that he’s drawn in 15, which no horse has run from in the last 10 years.

I had a quick look at this in a bit more detail and noted that there have been 5 races over the mile at Newbury with 18 runners since the turn of the century. The winners of these races came from stalls 11, 12, 13, 15 and 17. There have also been 2 races with 19 runners (winners from stalls 10 and 18) and 10 races with 17 runners (7 of the 10 winners came from stall 10 or higher). Basically, we’re seeing that it’s no disadvantage to have a high draw in a large field over a mile at Newbury.

What this means is that in theory, the horses with higher draws should, despite the fact no horse has run in the Lockinge from such a high draw in recent memory, be at no disadvantage whatsoever. Therefore, although Night Of Thunder came out on top on trends, Toormore should be right up there with him.