1) Stall
|
Stall
|
Runners
|
Wins
|
W%
|
Places
|
P%
|
W/P
|
W/P%
|
|
1
|
10
|
2
|
20%
|
2
|
20%
|
4
|
40%
|
|
2
|
10
|
0
|
0%
|
3
|
30%
|
3
|
30%
|
|
3
|
10
|
1
|
10%
|
2
|
20%
|
3
|
30%
|
|
4
|
10
|
3
|
30%
|
1
|
10%
|
4
|
40%
|
|
5
|
10
|
0
|
0%
|
2
|
20%
|
2
|
20%
|
|
6
|
9
|
3
|
33%
|
1
|
11%
|
4
|
44%
|
|
7
|
3
|
1
|
33%
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
33%
|
|
8
|
2
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
50%
|
1
|
50%
|
The success has been spread relatively evenly across the
stalls, with all of stalls 1, 2, 4, 6, 7 and 8 arguably having had notable
success over the last decade. We’ll keep an eye on horses drawn in these stalls
this year – Ol Man River in stall 1, Golden Horn in 2, Elm Park in 4, John F
Kennedy in 6, Lord Ben Stack in 7 and Jack Hobbs in 8. We’ll be more wary of
Nafaqa in stall 3 and Medrano in stall 5.
2) Place Last Time Out
|
Place
LTO
|
Runners
|
Wins
|
W%
|
Places
|
P%
|
W/P
|
W/P%
|
|
1st
|
37
|
7
|
19%
|
7
|
19%
|
14
|
38%
|
|
2nd
|
9
|
0
|
0%
|
2
|
22%
|
2
|
22%
|
|
3rd
|
4
|
1
|
25%
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
25%
|
|
4th
|
3
|
1
|
33%
|
1
|
33%
|
2
|
67%
|
|
5th
|
3
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
33%
|
1
|
33%
|
|
6th
|
1
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
|
7th
|
2
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
|
8th
|
2
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
50%
|
1
|
50%
|
|
10th
|
1
|
1
|
100%
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
100%
|
|
12th
|
1
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
|
13th
|
1
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
|
14th
|
1
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
Most Dante winners won last time out (as did Elm Park,
Golden Horn and Jack Hobbs), but we’ll also watch out for those which finished
3rd (John F Kennedy, Medrano), 4th (Lord Ben Stack), 5th,
8th and 10th. Nafaqa was 2nd last time out
while Ol’ Man River was 18th in the 2000 Guineas.
Form
3) 10 of the last 10 winners were sired by a group 1 winner.
All of this year’s runners are sired by group 1 winners.
4) 10 of the last 10 winners were sired by a horse with a
stamina index of 9.5f or higher.
(Jack Hobbs sire Halling has a stamina index of 10.8f, John
F Kennedy is sired by Galileo who has a stamina index of 11.2f, Lord Ben Stack
is by Dylan Thomas whose stamina index is 10f, Medrano is by Archipenko, 10.3f,
Nafaqa is by Sir Percy, 10.5f, and Ol’ Man River is by Montjeu whose stamina
index is 11.8f)
5) 10 of the last 10 winners had had 2-6 career starts.
All of this year’s runners fit this trend except Medrano who
has run 8 times to date.
6) 10 of the last 10 winners had won a race.
All of this year’s runners have won at least one race.
7) 9 of the last 10 winners made their debut over 7f+.
Medrano made his debut over 6f – the others all fit this
trend.
8) 7 of the last 10 winners had previously won over 1m+.
Medrano and Nafaqa are the only contenders this year not to
have won over at least a mile.
The Big Table
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
Total
|
|
|
Elm
Park
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
7
|
|
Golden
Horn
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
7
|
|
Jack
Hobbs
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
8
|
|
John
F Kennedy
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
8
|
|
Lord
Ben Stack
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
8
|
|
Medrano
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
No
|
No
|
4
|
|
Nafaqa
|
No
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
5
|
|
Ol
Man River
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
7
|
It’s certainly a no-bet race for us with almost the whole
field fitting almost all of the trends. It would be foolish to look through
these trends without noting the fantastic success of Aidan O’Brien in the race
in the last 10 years – 7 of his 8 runners in that space of time have either won
or placed, which is encouraging for supporters of Ol Man River and joint winner
on trends, John F Kennedy.
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