The first Irish Classic of the season has arrived in the
form of the 2000 Guineas. Needless to say the race often includes some
top-class horses, and this year is no different with Ballydoyle’s impressive
2000 Guineas winner Gleneagles set to feature and currently hot favourite. So,
do the trends encourage odds-on backers or suggest an upset at the Curragh?
1) Stall
Stall
|
Runners
|
Wins
|
W%
|
Places
|
P%
|
W/P
|
W/P%
|
1
|
10
|
1
|
10%
|
2
|
20%
|
3
|
30%
|
2
|
10
|
1
|
10%
|
2
|
20%
|
3
|
30%
|
3
|
8
|
4
|
50%
|
1
|
13%
|
5
|
63%
|
4
|
8
|
2
|
25%
|
1
|
13%
|
3
|
38%
|
5
|
10
|
0
|
0%
|
3
|
30%
|
3
|
30%
|
6
|
9
|
0
|
0%
|
5
|
56%
|
5
|
56%
|
7
|
9
|
1
|
11%
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
11%
|
8
|
7
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
14%
|
1
|
14%
|
9
|
8
|
1
|
13%
|
1
|
13%
|
2
|
25%
|
10
|
5
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
20%
|
1
|
20%
|
11
|
5
|
0
|
0%
|
2
|
40%
|
2
|
40%
|
Stalls 3, 4, 5, 6 and 11 look worth watching out for. These
are filled this year by Mohaayed, Lexington Times, Tombelaine, The Warrior and
Smugglers Cove respectively.
2) Place Last Time Out
Place
LTO
|
Runners
|
Wins
|
W%
|
Places
|
P%
|
W/P
|
W/P%
|
1st
|
23
|
3
|
13%
|
7
|
30%
|
10
|
43%
|
2nd
|
17
|
1
|
6%
|
3
|
18%
|
4
|
24%
|
3rd
|
10
|
1
|
10%
|
1
|
10%
|
2
|
20%
|
4th
|
19
|
1
|
5%
|
5
|
26%
|
6
|
32%
|
5th
|
6
|
2
|
33%
|
0
|
0%
|
2
|
33%
|
6th
|
5
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
20%
|
1
|
20%
|
7th
|
4
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
8th
|
2
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
9th
|
1
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
10th
|
2
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
50%
|
1
|
50%
|
11th
|
4
|
1
|
25%
|
1
|
25%
|
2
|
50%
|
12th
|
1
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
14th
|
1
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
0
|
0%
|
17th
|
1
|
1
|
100%
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
100%
|
Horses which finished 1st, 4th, 5th,
10th, 11th and 17th last time out have done
well in the last 10 years. This bodes well for Convergence (1st),
Gleneagles (1st) and Tombelaine (1st) as well as
Smugglers Cove (4th).
10-Year Trends
3) 10 of the last 10 winners had had 4-7 career starts
This is bad news for
Carbon Dating, who has had just 3 starts, Convergence, who has 9, Endless Drama
who has 3 and Lexington Times, who has 10.
4) 10 of the last 10 winners had had 1 or 2 runs so far that
season
Carbon Dating has
already run 3 times this season, as had The Warrior, but the rest of this
year’s runners fit this trend.
5) 10 of the last 10 winners had run in the last 21 days
It has been 35 days
since Belardo’s last run, 52 days since Convergence has seen the racecourse, 42
days for Lexington Times and 27 for Mohaayed – other than that, the rest of the
field fit the trend.
6) 9 of the last 10 winners had won over 7f or 8f
Carbon Dating, Endless
Drama, Ivawood and The Warrior are yet to win over further than 6f.
7) 9 of the last 10 winners were group winners
Belardo, Gleneagles
and Ivawood are the only group winners contesting the race this year.
8) 8 of the last 10 winners had finished in the top 2 in a
group 1
Belardo, Gleneagles
and Ivawood are the only runners to fit this trend too.
The Big Table
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
Total
|
|
Belardo
|
No
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
5
|
Carbon
Dating
|
No
|
No
|
No
|
No
|
Yes
|
No
|
No
|
No
|
1
|
Convergence
|
No
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
No
|
No
|
3
|
Endless
Drama
|
No
|
No
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
No
|
No
|
2
|
Gleneagles
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
7
|
Ivawood
|
No
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
5
|
Lexington
Times
|
Yes
|
No
|
No
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
No
|
No
|
3
|
Mohaayed
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
No
|
No
|
4
|
Smugglers
Cove
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
No
|
6
|
The
Warrior
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
No
|
Yes
|
No
|
No
|
No
|
3
|
Tombelaine
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
No
|
6
|
So, Gleneagles boringly comes out on top in our trends
analysis but not by very much. Interestingly, Smugglers Cove (66/1) and
Tombelaine (18/1) are next in the big table and both miss out on the same two
trends, numbers 7 and 8 which are similar in that they both point towards the
same thing – previous success at this level.
However, it has to be Gleneagles who gets the nod – since
coming 4th on his maiden, he has won 6 races in a row (although he
was disqualified in a French group 1). He’s almost impossible to oppose, and
although 2/5 isn’t a working man’s price, I wouldn’t be backing anything
against him. On the Newmarket Guineas form, Ivawood should be up there for the
minor honours but Tombelaine could be the value – he did beat Endless Drama and
The Warrior last time out – while Smugglers Cove does interestingly well on
trends and it’s very possible that there was something amiss last time out,
when he finished last of 4 in the listed Dee Stakes at Chester having been
backed into favourite.
SELECTION: GLENEAGLES
2/5
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